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OT: Hurricane warning

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TheU 4ever said:
It will all depend on the High located in the upper Atlantic, and whether or not that H moves south and how far. The models (and there are many) whether the European, the GFS or others are all based/predicated on a probabilistic/stochastic set of multiple equations that get their input from a set of parameters that include among others historical information, the hurricane plane (53d WRS hurricane hunters operate ten Lockheed WC-130J aircraft that travels to the eye of the storm & collects additional information) and other atmospheric, sea temperature measures, etc. factors. These equations are in turn run through various simulations in order to arrive at an advisory (normally provided to the public at 5 AM, 8 AM, 11 AM, 2 PM, 5 PM, 8 PM, and 11 PM (bold are principal advisories, the others; as the hurricane gets closer, the NHC also makes other simulation runs during the night to be ready for the 5 AM advisory).
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I’m sold. You’re now the official meteorologist of CIS. Good luck with all of the marketing major porsters who try to tell you otherwise.
 
TheU 4ever said:
It will all depend on the High located in the upper Atlantic, and whether or not that H moves south and how far. The models (and there are many) whether the European, the GFS or others are all based/predicated on a probabilistic/stochastic set of multiple equations that get their input from a set of parameters that include among others historical information, the hurricane plane (53d WRS hurricane hunters operate ten Lockheed WC-130J aircraft that travels to the eye of the storm & collects additional information) and other atmospheric, sea temperature measures, etc. factors. These equations are in turn run through various simulations in order to arrive at an advisory (normally provided to the public at 5 AM, 8 AM, 11 AM, 2 PM, 5 PM, 8 PM, and 11 PM (bold are principal advisories, the others; as the hurricane gets closer, the NHC also makes other simulation runs during the night to be ready for the 5 AM advisory).
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Basically a highly educated guess based on thousands of data points which as you said, are scrubbed through multiple equations/models/statistical analyses, ending up with a probability range with parameters.

What they are really good at is giving you fairly highly accurate range within a hundred miles, of wind speed probabilities, etc. The model runs as far as “where it’s going” are still quite variable... as I’m sure you already know, the closer to the time frame you’re looking at - the more accurate it is. So as far as Florida goes, these models become more and more accurate and tighter, the closer we get to Sunday.

I’m not an expert on this stuff, but I do have a science/statistics/math background, so I get statistical probabilities, but I have no experience in feeding hundreds or thousands of parameters into a super computer (if they even use those anymore) with hundreds of different models.

So from a layman’s perspective the bottom line is this. Statistically speaking this could hit anywhere from Miami to Jacksonville. But there’s also a possibility it could turn north at some point before it hits the Florida coast although that seems somewhat less likely but not totally out of the question.

From a Floridians perspective this will have an impact in any event. It will either hit directly or come so close that it will have a major impact either way.. That’s my take away right now.

The only way it doesn’t have any kind of a major impact is if the right turn comes way earlier than what is expected right now, or what is modeled right now
 
OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
Basically a highly educated guess based on thousands of data points which as you said, are scrubbed through multiple equations/models/statistical analyses, ending up with a probability range with parameters.

What they are really good at is giving you fairly highly accurate range within a hundred miles, of wind speed probabilities, etc. The model runs as far as “where it’s going” are still quite variable... as I’m sure you already know, the closer to the time frame you’re looking at - the more accurate it is. So as far as Florida goes, these models become more and more accurate and tighter, the closer we get to Sunday.

I’m not an expert on this stuff, but I do have a science/statistics/math background, so I get statistical probabilities, but I have no experience in feeding hundreds or thousands of parameters into a super computer (if they even use those anymore) with hundreds of different models.

So from a layman’s perspective the bottom line is this. Statistically speaking this could hit anywhere from Miami to Jacksonville. But there’s also a possibility it could turn north at some point before it hits the Florida coast although that seems somewhat less likely but not totally out of the question.

From a Floridians perspective this will have an impact in any event. It will either hit directly or come so close that it will have a major impact either way.. That’s my take away right now.

The only way it doesn’t have any kind of a major impact is if the right turn comes way earlier than what is expected right now, or what is modeled right now
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The "Cone of Uncertainty" gets smaller/tighter as the hurricane gets closer.
 
TheU 4ever said:
The "Cone of Uncertainty" gets smaller/tighter as the hurricane gets closer to land.
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Yeah and we’ve it seen a change before with other hurricanes. Makes sense the cone gets smaller, mathematically/statistically, because at that point you’re dealing with fewer variables (shorter time frame) and the likelihood of wild direction changes becomes negligible.

Right now though I am sure there are still at least a few models that have it going north and hugging the coast line
 
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TheU 4ever said:
I am a quantitative/qualitative mathematical modeler. The information that I provided above are based on visits & presentations that I attended at the National Hurricane Center.
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That’s pretty cool. Definitely different than all of the lawyers, arm chair corches, bag dropping street agents and Wall Street billionaires who frequent this website.
 
Any storm that developed nowadays is probably gonna get nasty because the water is so hot.

I’m praying one doesn’t get into the gulf cause it’s like a hot tub.

All you guys down there be safe..
 
KWConch said:
Any storm that developed nowadays is probably gonna get nasty because the water is so hot.

I’m praying one doesn’t get into the gulf cause it’s like a hot tub.

All you guys down there be safe..
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it's the **** sun man, that thing is way way way hotter now on the skin than it was even just 2 years ago.

my father used to be a roofer in the 70's and he even said that if he was my age he still couldn't do it in this day and time.
 
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TheU 4ever said:
It will all depend on the High located in the upper Atlantic, and whether or not that H moves south and how far. The models (and there are many) whether the European, the GFS or others are all based/predicated on a probabilistic/stochastic set of multiple equations that get their input from a set of parameters that include among others historical information, the hurricane plane (53d WRS hurricane hunters operate ten Lockheed WC-130J aircraft that travels to the eye of the storm & collects additional information) and other atmospheric, sea temperature measures, etc. factors. These equations are in turn run through various simulations in order to arrive at an advisory (normally provided to the public at 5 AM, 8 AM, 11 AM, 2 PM, 5 PM, 8 PM, and 11 PM (bold are principal advisories, the others occur as the hurricane gets closer to land); as the hurricane gets even closer, the NHC also makes other simulation runs throughout the night to be ready for the 5 AM advisory).
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Let's just hopes the Canes game is played at the scheduled date next weekend. That is the reference point. It will mean the City of Miami escaped Dorian.

As always there is never enough acknowledgement here or elsewhere regarding all the ramifications of these storms. If the area takes a major hit nobody will care about football.

I have been amazed at the lack of a thread here the past few days. I follow this stuff on the Storm2K website. The UKMET model has been ominous for South Florida throughout. That model is right there with Euro for most respected and has actually surpassed Euro many times, notably with Irma in 2017.

Still many ways for the Miami area to avoid a major hit. The models can't agree due to so many contradictory influences like the strength of that High in the Atlantic. Basically weaker means better for Miami but the Europeans models have suggested stronger, pushing Dorian west. There is also a new obscure system in the Gulf that may play a role.

The Euro model will initialized at about 2 AM. That is what everyone on those tracker sites is waiting for. The afternoon Euro model had a completely bizarre path with Dorian slowing dramatically once beyond the Bahamas and later turning the worst-case WSW, then basically stalling before skirting the southeastern Florida coastline. The 2 AM run will reveal whether or not they are sticking with that. UKMET for days has had Dorian dipping WSW as it reaches the coastline, but in the Broward/Palm Beach area for landfall.
 
Man Ima be ****ed if this affects our ability to practice all week...

And don't lecture me about "this is more important than football!", I know...

But fck all that, I wanna roll up to Tobacco Road & whoop some Tar Heel *** next week.

Got **** Hurricanes always wanna wait till College Football season to start fuxkin around smh lol.
 
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