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OT - CFP Hypothetical

WeBallinBoyz

WeBallinBoyz

Whisper "It Just Means More" Again Daddy
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Having a classic Thanksgiving debate over CFP hypotheticals, and wanted to share with the board for fun.

Let’s lay out the hypothetical:
- Michigan beats Ohio St, then wins Big 10 championship (could flip them and it wouldn’t matter so long as the winner on Saturday wins in the Big 10 Championship).
- Washington beats Wazzu, Oregon beats Oregon St
- Oregon then beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship
- FSU beats UF, then beats Louisville in the ACC Championship.
- Texas beats Texas Tech, then beats Oklahoma St (or Oklahoma or Kansas St) in the Big 12 Championship.
- Georgia beats GT, Alabama beats Auburn. Alabama then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship.

So now, we’ve got:

12-1 Georgia
12-1 Alabama (with the UGA H2H)
12-1 Texas (with the Alabama H2H)
12-1 Oregon (avenged their lone loss)
12-1 Ohio State (probably out)
13-0 Michigan
13-0 FSU (but no starting QB)

Who’s your top 4 and what order?

I’m going…

1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Oregon

UGA probably takes Oregon’s spot and the SEC gets 2 teams in, but f^ck UGA. Nonetheless, this is the committee’s nightmare. Leaving out an undefeated P5 Champion in FSU would cause an endless amount of tears. Moving Bama over Texas in this scenario would completely nullify their regular season win, especially @ Tuscaloosa.
 
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Since we are talking hypothetically here only way Georgia gets left out in your scenario is losing to the Crimson Satans about 77-0

Oh, and lest I forget here is the obligatory FACK THE OHIO JABRONI STATE AND FSU SCUMINOLES
 
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1. Michigan/OSU
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. Alabama

The controversy would be bama getting in over texas even though they lost to texas. But by that point bama would have a much more impressive resume than Texas. Easy choice for the committe imo.
 
SaiyaMan305 said:
1. Michigan/OSU
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. Alabama

The controversy would be bama getting in over texas even though they lost to texas. But by that point bama would have a much more impressive resume than Texas. Easy choice for the committe imo.
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You think Georgia losing to Alabama completely undoes everything in the regular season? What if they lost by 3 in a highly-entertaining, back-and-forth game?

I don’t think it’s easy at all, personally. There’s a ton of talk about FSU not being valued as the same team with a backup QB in, and that they might be left out if they eke by their next two. I’m not so sure they sniff a 2-seed.
 
In that Scenario it would be

1. UofM
2. FSU
3. UT
4. UO

The SEC champ would be left out in shocking fashion. The only way Bama gets in is if Texas doesn’t win out. The committee will not allow a Bama team who was beat by UT to enter. They’ve discussed this, & no, they are not leaving out an undefeated conference champion, regardless of how we feel about them. Lol
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
Having a classic Thanksgiving debate over CFP hypotheticals, and wanted to share with the board for fun.

Let’s lay out the hypothetical:
- Michigan beats Ohio St, then wins Big 10 championship (could flip them and it wouldn’t matter so long as the winner on Saturday wins in the Big 10 Championship).
- Washington beats Wazzu, Oregon beats Oregon St
- Oregon then beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship
- FSU beats UF, then beats Louisville in the ACC Championship.
- Texas beats Texas Tech, then beats Oklahoma St (or Oklahoma or Kansas St) in the Big 12 Championship.
- Georgia beats GT, Alabama beats Auburn. Alabama then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship.

So now, we’ve got:

12-1 Georgia
12-1 Alabama (with the UGA H2H)
12-1 Texas (with the Alabama H2H)
12-1 Oregon (avenged their lone loss)
12-1 Ohio State (probably out)
13-0 Michigan
13-0 FSU (but no starting QB)

Who’s your top 4 and what order?

I’m going…

1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Oregon

UGA probably takes Oregon’s spot and the SEC gets 2 teams in, but f^ck UGA. Nonetheless, this is the committee’s nightmare. Leaving out an undefeated P5 Champion in FSU would cause an endless amount of tears. Moving Bama over Texas in this scenario would completely nullify their regular season win, especially @ Tuscaloosa.
Click to expand...
Think Give Up GIF by Boomerang Official
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
You think Georgia losing to Alabama completely undoes everything in the regular season? What if they lost by 3 in a highly-entertaining, back-and-forth game?

I don’t think it’s easy at all, personally. There’s a ton of talk about FSU not being valued as the same team with a backup QB in, and that they might be left out if they eke by their next two. I’m not so sure they sniff a 2-seed.
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Undefeated conference champions will get in no matter what. So that leaves 2 spots also helps that UofL is ranked #10 now. Yes if georgia loses even by 3 they would be a 1 loss non conference champion which would knock them out.

its really a discussion between UO, UT and Bama for the last 2 spots, seeing how the comitte values Oregon a lot theyve basically set it up that whoever wins the pac 12 gets in automatically. I reallt believe it just comes down to bama and UT which would be contreversial but the comitte is easy to read tbh. Theyre always strraight up in their previous rankings telling you who they value.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
Having a classic Thanksgiving debate over CFP hypotheticals, and wanted to share with the board for fun.

Let’s lay out the hypothetical:
- Michigan beats Ohio St, then wins Big 10 championship (could flip them and it wouldn’t matter so long as the winner on Saturday wins in the Big 10 Championship).
- Washington beats Wazzu, Oregon beats Oregon St
- Oregon then beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship
- FSU beats UF, then beats Louisville in the ACC Championship.
- Texas beats Texas Tech, then beats Oklahoma St (or Oklahoma or Kansas St) in the Big 12 Championship.
- Georgia beats GT, Alabama beats Auburn. Alabama then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship.

So now, we’ve got:

12-1 Georgia
12-1 Alabama (with the UGA H2H)
12-1 Texas (with the Alabama H2H)
12-1 Oregon (avenged their lone loss)
12-1 Ohio State (probably out)
13-0 Michigan
13-0 FSU (but no starting QB)

Who’s your top 4 and what order?

I’m going…

1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Oregon

UGA probably takes Oregon’s spot and the SEC gets 2 teams in, but f^ck UGA. Nonetheless, this is the committee’s nightmare. Leaving out an undefeated P5 Champion in FSU would cause an endless amount of tears. Moving Bama over Texas in this scenario would completely nullify their regular season win, especially @ Tuscaloosa.
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Undefeated FSU will not be denied. The committee will see two wins without Travis (one vs a top 10 team), and they will get in.

1. Michigan
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. Washington/OSU

Alabama out for their loss at home to Texas
Texas out for only one “good win” (Alabama). UGA out because their quality wins falls short of OSU/Wash/Oregon

One game playoff between OSU and Washington at a neutral site.
 
I think it's

michigan
alabama
georgia
fsu

The two undefeated teams you have to put in no matter what you think of them. I think the two sec teams get more benefit of the doubt because of that tough sec schedule argument they have always gotten.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
Having a classic Thanksgiving debate over CFP hypotheticals, and wanted to share with the board for fun.

Let’s lay out the hypothetical:
- Michigan beats Ohio St, then wins Big 10 championship (could flip them and it wouldn’t matter so long as the winner on Saturday wins in the Big 10 Championship).
- Washington beats Wazzu, Oregon beats Oregon St
- Oregon then beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship
- FSU beats UF, then beats Louisville in the ACC Championship.
- Texas beats Texas Tech, then beats Oklahoma St (or Oklahoma or Kansas St) in the Big 12 Championship.
- Georgia beats GT, Alabama beats Auburn. Alabama then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship.

So now, we’ve got:

12-1 Georgia
12-1 Alabama (with the UGA H2H)
12-1 Texas (with the Alabama H2H)
12-1 Oregon (avenged their lone loss)
12-1 Ohio State (probably out)
13-0 Michigan
13-0 FSU (but no starting QB)

Who’s your top 4 and what order?

I’m going…

1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Oregon

UGA probably takes Oregon’s spot and the SEC gets 2 teams in, but f^ck UGA. Nonetheless, this is the committee’s nightmare. Leaving out an undefeated P5 Champion in FSU would cause an endless amount of tears. Moving Bama over Texas in this scenario would completely nullify their regular season win, especially @ Tuscaloosa.
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#1 Michigan
#2 Fsu
#3 Texas
#4 Bama

I wanted to put oregon but i just cant see them leaving out the sec champ and they will say bama only loss is #3 texas and all of they other wins will be better than oregon wins
 
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Yeah, there’s no way you could leave out an undefeated FSU team even without Travis. UF is pretty average but a win over Louisville would be their best victory of the season. You can’t discount that.
 
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Rellyrell said:
In that Scenario it would be

1. UofM
2. FSU
3. UT
4. UO

The SEC champ would be left out in shocking fashion. The only way Bama gets in is if Texas doesn’t win out. The committee will not allow a Bama team who was beat by UT to enter. They’ve discussed this, & no, they are not leaving out an undefeated conference champion, regardless of how we feel about them. Lol
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Here we are on Saturday morning with 3 spots left. Obviously there is a simple path for the committee if Georgia, Michigan, and Texas win and fsu loses, but let's go over the Chaos Scenario...

Let's start with Michigan winning so 2 spots left for 3 teams. If Bama beats Georgia, fsu beats Louisville, and Texas wins, I feel Georgia is out, so now it comes down to the 3 championship winners. (Nice 3 year run for Georgia, but no notable out of conference wins, a down SEC overall, and past seasons don't carry over)

My biggest argument for Texas getting in is having a convincing 10 point win on the road against Bama, but I also think Texas needs Bama to beat Georgia or lose very closely. So if Bama gets in, then Texas is a package deal because you can't convince me that Bama gets in over the team that beat them. It sends a bad message to the country that losing in the SEC doesn't hurt you and sorry Texas, your win meant nothing.

Lastly, fsu deserves to be in if they win but I think the committee will use the Travis injury against them. Fsu had a better win against LSU than Bama did, but that's about it.

My biggest gripe in all of this is how the SEC gets a free pass for ugly, close wins while other conferences get penalized for it. The SEC lost a large amount of non-conference games this year and they have shown to be less dominant compared to past seasons. Bama needed a miracle to beat a bad Auburn team, but the media says nothing. Meanwhile, fsu wins by 9 on the road against a rival playing for bowl eligiblity and the media says "they look so bad without Travis" but again say nothing negative about Bama's win.

Final prediction - fsu loses and Bama loses (If fsu wins and Bama loses.. there is a good chance Texas gets left out)

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. Texas

*Arguably the most competitive Final Four in CFP history
 
If Bama wins there’s a strong argument they should jump UT. It depends on whether the committee values head to head results, or the total body of work. If it’s the latter, and you’re talking wins against current ranked teams, Bama is the choice. UT would have wins against a top 5 Bama (if Bama wins today), #25 KSU and a OSU team that’ll be ranked in low 20s at best after this weekend. Bama would have victories against #21 UT, #13 LSU, #11 Ole Miss and an. UGA team that’ll be top 5 even with a loss.

Also, and I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist, but I agree with many others that at the end of the day there’s very little chance the SEC champion does not get in.
 
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