1/3 he succeeds (elite with occasional opportunities to win NC)
1/3 he is mediocre (average 8-9 wins per year with the occasional potential run to CFP)
1/3 he is bad (~0.500 coach at Miami, basically like this year)
If he makes a good hire at OC and weeds out the cancers, I would expect somewhere between the top two I listed and above.
His OC hire will make or break him. We will not be able to make an evaluation on this until the end of next season. Of course, that won’t stop the geniuses here from jumping to conclusions as soon as the hire is announced (good or bad).