On "The Eye Test" and "Bad Losses"

So, Miami would have to be 11-1 or 12-0 as a major conference team to be in, even with a top end OOC schedule? That's your argument. Only Miami fans are this incredibly myopic, I'm convinced some of you actively hate the program, that's the only way to explain why some will never give your own program the benefit of the doubt.

I'd understand your gripe if Miami was out here losing to 6-6 teams, or teams that don't have a chance of reaching a bowl game, but this isn't that. It's also amazing how much people want to pretend that SMU and Louisville are trash, when in reality they are no worse than Mizzou, they just don't have the SEC patch on their jerseys. Miami lost to two teams that should in theory win 8+ games this season, in close losses that could have gone either way. Let that marinate. Last year, Alabama got BOATRACED by a 6-6 OU team, BOATRACED. No one gave a ****. Texas lost to Florida, a team that Miami bludgeoned, they are still a legit contender(Even with three losses), provided they win out. You can't make this stuff up.

They absolutely hate the program. We all know that.

They hate themselves more, but there’s no internet message board to complain about their lives. Just a bartender, who probably wants to hang himself. So this is the next best thing.
 
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Honestly, we argue Notre Dame, but dam, why is Alabama around?

Their losses to FSU and Oklahoma, Oklahoma is pumped up and isn't particularly impressive, even with Mateer as QB ( I think we would beat them, sans O&G glasses).
Neither Oklahoma nor Alabama are balanced team, they either suck at running the ball or passing the ball. Statistically were head and shoulder above both of them.

On top of that the team defense of Miami is STATISTACALLY better then BOTH!

It's crazy, we're arguing vs Utah of BYU or Notre Dame, but seriously those two teams are below us as well.

There obviously a big SEC bias I get that, but man does everyone think ACC is junk, our mid teams to bottom really drag sus down, but they're comparable to the Big 12. I'd love to see Vegas odds vs H2H on a neutral field vs ANY BIG 12 team. No way they'd put as anything below -3.
 
There obviously a big SEC bias I get that, but man does everyone think ACC is junk, our mid teams to bottom really drag sus down, but they're comparable to the Big 12. I'd love to see Vegas odds vs H2H on a neutral field vs ANY BIG 12 team. No way they'd put as anything below -3.

The ACC is 5-11 against out of conference P4 opponents (3-11 if you remove Miami's UF and ND wins). The ACC does not have a winning record vs any power conference this year.

ACC vs Big XII specifically is 1-6. The lone win is over arguably the worst team in the conference, Colorado. SMU (who has better conference championship odds than Miami) lost to TCU and Baylor who are currently 10th and 11th place in the Big XII. Pitt, another viable ACC CG team lost to West Virginia.

This story was written for the ACC when they completely **** the bed in September and in my opinion this is a huge part of why BYU and Utah are ranked where they are.
 
Eye test and worse losses are fair arguments if we didn't play h2h.
This

But I understand their take, the closer we get then we jump them obviously. If the 24th ranked team beat bama they can’t leapfrog them depending where bama falls
 
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It seems very clear that, at least for this week, the Committee will justify ranking Notre Dame above Miami for two main reasons:

1. Notre Dame looks better.

2. Miami has worse losses.

Leave H2H out of this for the moment. Both of these takes are at least arguable. We look better now than we did a few weeks ago, but Notre Dame has looked dominant, albeit against lesser competition. We'd probably be an underdog on a neutral field today. Miami's losses aren't bad (and might get better if the winner of SMU/Louisville gets ranked next week), but they are objectively worse than Notre Dame's. We all know the Miami argument here, so no need to rehash, but allow me to go down a rabbit hole for the moment.

The eye test is bull**** for a ton of different reasons, not the least of which is that somehow university athletic directors are still on the committee, but also because I refuse to believe that all these old white rich football coaches are sitting around watching ball all day and night.

There is a ZERO percent chance that 79-year-old Chris ******* Ault is spending his weekends watching Jordan Lyle slam into the A gap 15 times.

The reason I say this is, and this will sound like excuses, but after Week 1, Mack Rhoades legitimately talked about how Notre Dame's CENTER got hurt in the USC game as part of the team's resiliency or whatever. Fine. Context matters. So can we talk about how Akheem Mesidor missed part of the Louisville game and played hurt in the SMU game? Are we allowed to point out that CJ Daniels and OJ Frederique both missed the SMU game or that Mark Fletcher missed the 4th quarter of the SMU game? Daniels will definitely be back (I think) and hopefully the other guys soon too. Everyone keeps saying "Miami got worse" without even PRETENDING to add any context to those losses. Meanwhile ND's loss to Miami gets qualified up and down and around again.

I get it, those guys are just All-Conference caliber players at key positions. They aren't Notre Dame's Center. But if you want to talk about Miami "getting worse", you sure as **** better be prepared to talk about them "getting better" as they return to full strength.

Maybe Notre Dame would win in a rematch, they are good. But don't ******* tell me that Notre Dame "looks better" when the team that swallowed that vaunted running game whole wasn't even playing at full strength in those losses. I simply will not hear that. If the choice is between some subjective nonsense prediction and an actual game that was played and happened on the field, we've already lost the plot. And I swear I would feel the same way if the roles were reversed.

But nothing irks me more than knowing deep in my soul that my guy Chris Ault accidentally fell asleep during the Marquise Lightfoot unnecessary roughness penalty and because of that, he and this other octogenarians think that the SMU game was a "bad loss".

I understand that opening this door means that Notre Dame can (rightfully) talk about their ***** job against A&M where there was a blatant hold on the winning touchdown. But bad calls affect games every week. I am not even arguing the call against Lightfoot was a bad call. I am arguing that it was a complete and total fluke. How many times have you seen that penalty happen? Once? Never? One could easily argue that Miami didn't lose that game because of bad officiating, they lost because of a once-in-a-generation fluke dead ball penalty on 4th and 9.

I am so sick of hearing about the SMU game as a "bad loss". Did Miami play poorly? Yes. Is the Lightfoot penalty or the refereeing the reason that Miami lost? No, it isn't. But it is contextual. And despite Miami playing one of its worst games all season without THREE key starters in the fourth quarter, SMU still needed a fluky dead ball penalty to win. I think that at least deserves some kind of mention, no?

The problem is that when you start pointing out specific plays in games, the slope gets very slippery very quickly. I didn't watch the entirety of the ND/A&M game, but I am sure ND fans could point to a few plays that should have gone their way.

But that is my whole ******* point. This sport has uneven conferences and uneven schedules, so there is no tried and true way to compare with 100% certainty two teams that didn't play each other. Pointing to penalties and injuries and weather and circumstances and early season v. late season is all relevant, but it is also all completely subjective and not directly influential on anything if the two teams played again.

With all of that in mind, head to head is the truest possible way to settle a debate filled with injuries and strength of record and bad losses and good wins. It is the most distilled and purest way to determine which team is "better". And I am extremely concerned that we are headed towards a path where old *** athletic directors and Condolezza Rice are using their own amateur film breakdowns to judge teams subjectively and as everyone has pointed out, that would mean the death of Top 10 non-conference games, which is a loss for everybody.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

I still think we should play Zaquan Patterson more at safety and don't understand why he can't get more reps.
The Herd with the Word!



**** him...H2H over Domer Lame....Miami should be in...but we KNOW don't we?
 
It seems very clear that, at least for this week, the Committee will justify ranking Notre Dame above Miami for two main reasons:

1. Notre Dame looks better.

2. Miami has worse losses.

Leave H2H out of this for the moment. Both of these takes are at least arguable. We look better now than we did a few weeks ago, but Notre Dame has looked dominant, albeit against lesser competition. We'd probably be an underdog on a neutral field today. Miami's losses aren't bad (and might get better if the winner of SMU/Louisville gets ranked next week), but they are objectively worse than Notre Dame's. We all know the Miami argument here, so no need to rehash, but allow me to go down a rabbit hole for the moment.

The eye test is bull**** for a ton of different reasons, not the least of which is that somehow university athletic directors are still on the committee, but also because I refuse to believe that all these old white rich football coaches are sitting around watching ball all day and night.

There is a ZERO percent chance that 79-year-old Chris ******* Ault is spending his weekends watching Jordan Lyle slam into the A gap 15 times.

The reason I say this is, and this will sound like excuses, but after Week 1, Mack Rhoades legitimately talked about how Notre Dame's CENTER got hurt in the USC game as part of the team's resiliency or whatever. Fine. Context matters. So can we talk about how Akheem Mesidor missed part of the Louisville game and played hurt in the SMU game? Are we allowed to point out that CJ Daniels and OJ Frederique both missed the SMU game or that Mark Fletcher missed the 4th quarter of the SMU game? Daniels will definitely be back (I think) and hopefully the other guys soon too. Everyone keeps saying "Miami got worse" without even PRETENDING to add any context to those losses. Meanwhile ND's loss to Miami gets qualified up and down and around again.

I get it, those guys are just All-Conference caliber players at key positions. They aren't Notre Dame's Center. But if you want to talk about Miami "getting worse", you sure as **** better be prepared to talk about them "getting better" as they return to full strength.

Maybe Notre Dame would win in a rematch, they are good. But don't ******* tell me that Notre Dame "looks better" when the team that swallowed that vaunted running game whole wasn't even playing at full strength in those losses. I simply will not hear that. If the choice is between some subjective nonsense prediction and an actual game that was played and happened on the field, we've already lost the plot. And I swear I would feel the same way if the roles were reversed.

But nothing irks me more than knowing deep in my soul that my guy Chris Ault accidentally fell asleep during the Marquise Lightfoot unnecessary roughness penalty and because of that, he and this other octogenarians think that the SMU game was a "bad loss".

I understand that opening this door means that Notre Dame can (rightfully) talk about their ***** job against A&M where there was a blatant hold on the winning touchdown. But bad calls affect games every week. I am not even arguing the call against Lightfoot was a bad call. I am arguing that it was a complete and total fluke. How many times have you seen that penalty happen? Once? Never? One could easily argue that Miami didn't lose that game because of bad officiating, they lost because of a once-in-a-generation fluke dead ball penalty on 4th and 9.

I am so sick of hearing about the SMU game as a "bad loss". Did Miami play poorly? Yes. Is the Lightfoot penalty or the refereeing the reason that Miami lost? No, it isn't. But it is contextual. And despite Miami playing one of its worst games all season without THREE key starters in the fourth quarter, SMU still needed a fluky dead ball penalty to win. I think that at least deserves some kind of mention, no?

The problem is that when you start pointing out specific plays in games, the slope gets very slippery very quickly. I didn't watch the entirety of the ND/A&M game, but I am sure ND fans could point to a few plays that should have gone their way.

But that is my whole ******* point. This sport has uneven conferences and uneven schedules, so there is no tried and true way to compare with 100% certainty two teams that didn't play each other. Pointing to penalties and injuries and weather and circumstances and early season v. late season is all relevant, but it is also all completely subjective and not directly influential on anything if the two teams played again.

With all of that in mind, head to head is the truest possible way to settle a debate filled with injuries and strength of record and bad losses and good wins. It is the most distilled and purest way to determine which team is "better". And I am extremely concerned that we are headed towards a path where old *** athletic directors and Condolezza Rice are using their own amateur film breakdowns to judge teams subjectively and as everyone has pointed out, that would mean the death of Top 10 non-conference games, which is a loss for everybody.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

I still think we should play Zaquan Patterson more at safety and don't understand why he can't get more reps.
Domer Lame lost to Miami and aTm

Miami lost to ACC high school squads.

Close thread.
 
Our record would have been an undeniable eye test had we not **** the bed in the easy half of our schedule.

We should know better than to count on subjective judgment from the committee.

Sorry to **** post but - but those two stupid losses irk me more and more as it looks like this team might actually finish strong and have absolutely nothing to show for it.
If it wasnt for some of the game altering egregiosuly bad and undeniably biased officiating in both of those games but particularly SMU I would be more on the this team and staff choked away this year.

I watch a lot of buckeye football each week cause of my wife. As bad as we get ****ed they get helped and in the most opportune moments. Sane can be said for UGA, Bama, A&M, and ND.

We literally play in a different universe than our peers when it comes to officiating. My only gripe is that our AD and staff dont hammer the officials week in and week out when they repeatedly showcase their bias.

Even when we are winning and there's bull**** being called all over the field we should be pointing it out. Week one we should have been post game on the DB holding, unsportsman like calls, and basically the entire 3rd quarter. UF inadvertent whistle and simulating snaps against USF and everyone followed by them. Faircarch call against UL.

I dont care what the perception is I am bringing it up in every presser how we got robbed in Dallas until the bull**** stops. I am bringing film of the non safeties in 2024. Don Chaney was down. I would be incorrigible to the point there wouldn't even be a reason to have the presser cause all I would talk about is the ****** officiating over the last 25 years. Id have every call in our games under a microscope from the national media.
 
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Honestly, we argue Notre Dame, but dam, why is Alabama around?

Their losses to FSU and Oklahoma, Oklahoma is pumped up and isn't particularly impressive, even with Mateer as QB ( I think we would beat them, sans O&G glasses).
Neither Oklahoma nor Alabama are balanced team, they either suck at running the ball or passing the ball. Statistically were head and shoulder above both of them.

On top of that the team defense of Miami is STATISTACALLY better then BOTH!

It's crazy, we're arguing vs Utah of BYU or Notre Dame, but seriously those two teams are below us as well.

There obviously a big SEC bias I get that, but man does everyone think ACC is junk, our mid teams to bottom really drag sus down, but they're comparable to the Big 12. I'd love to see Vegas odds vs H2H on a neutral field vs ANY BIG 12 team. No way they'd put as anything below -3.
We are not comparable to the big 12. The big 12 killed us this year. And it isn’t the middle or bottom only, Pitt and smu lost three games combined to teams NOT in contention for the big 12 championship.
 
None of that **** matters. Their “resume” isn’t far far and away better than ours. That’s what it would take to even be remotely fair for them to get in over us with the same record.

As it stands right now, with comparable schedule metrics, it’s malpractice for them to be ahead of us. What you’re saying is results don’t matter early in the year bc the season doesn’t actually start until week 3-4. Might as well just turn off the scoreboard and “eye test” it every week.
Unfortunately the system has nothing to do with fairness, and that concept is not baked in to how the committee chooses. In fact, what is more important and has more weight ("good" losses, bad losses, good wins, unimpressive wins, SOS, etc) seems to shift on a whim within the committee. So that is what we have to deal with
 
NEVER LEAVE YOUR FATE IN THE HANDS OF JUDGES... ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE ONE OF THE MOST HATED PROGRAMS IN ALL OF COLLEGE ATHLETICS. EITHER REMOVE THE OPTION FOR THEM TO 🪛 YOU OR DON'T BE SURPRISED WHEN THEY DO.

ron burgundy anchorman GIF
 
The ACC is 5-11 against out of conference P4 opponents (3-11 if you remove Miami's UF and ND wins). The ACC does not have a winning record vs any power conference this year.

ACC vs Big XII specifically is 1-6. The lone win is over arguably the worst team in the conference, Colorado. SMU (who has better conference championship odds than Miami) lost to TCU and Baylor who are currently 10th and 11th place in the Big XII. Pitt, another viable ACC CG team lost to West Virginia.

This story was written for the ACC when they completely **** the bed in September and in my opinion this is a huge part of why BYU and Utah are ranked where they are.
Agreed!
But to use the entire conference for a team to
We are not comparable to the big 12. The big 12 killed us this year. And it isn’t the middle or bottom only, Pitt and smu lost three games combined to teams NOT in contention for the big 12 championship.
Yeah you're right. Not a good look.

Like us the ACC is inconsistent. We beat Bama and Notre Dame, but lose to West Virginia...
 
look when the rankings came out week 0, they saw ND was top 10 and as long as they came to or near that, they were going to put them in. now theyll just find an excuse to justify it.
 
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It seems like Notre Dame is the better team. Too bad Miami didn’t get a chance to play them.
And too bad none of us sits on the selection committee...

he who has the gold makes the rules...

when you put yourself in a position for others to make a judgment call on your actions, you need to be willing to accept that judgment.

I said this would happen...
 
Basically the committee could arbitrarily rank us ahead of Utah. BYU, of Alabama , and then our head to head against ND would count and bump us up another 3 spots?

We have a similar "win" to Bama beating ND while they beat UGA and they have a significantly worse loss than us against an ACC bottom dweller. We also dominated the same team that dominated them h2h..we could easily be ranked ahead of Bama.

We could easily justifiably be ranked ahead of Utah or BYU right now, without any other "resume building".

It's all BS and smokescreens.
Correct it’s bs
But it’s reality
 
Honestly, we argue Notre Dame, but dam, why is Alabama around?

Their losses to FSU and Oklahoma, Oklahoma is pumped up and isn't particularly impressive, even with Mateer as QB ( I think we would beat them, sans O&G glasses).
Neither Oklahoma nor Alabama are balanced team, they either suck at running the ball or passing the ball. Statistically were head and shoulder above both of them.

On top of that the team defense of Miami is STATISTACALLY better then BOTH!

It's crazy, we're arguing vs Utah of BYU or Notre Dame, but seriously those two teams are below us as well.

There obviously a big SEC bias I get that, but man does everyone think ACC is junk, our mid teams to bottom really drag sus down, but they're comparable to the Big 12. I'd love to see Vegas odds vs H2H on a neutral field vs ANY BIG 12 team. No way they'd put as anything below -3.
Bama is part of great 8
They will ALWAYS get the nod

Acc is horrific
It’s criminal Miami isn’t absolutely thrashing EVERY single team

B12 is a better conference
My bet is we would be underdogs v Texas Tech on neutral field
And prob close to pick em v utah
We’d be -3 v byu

Jmho
 
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