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*** Official Beat Joe Green Thread ***

RBhurricane87 said:
Games I'm looking at:

Ohio St. -17.5 at home v. UCF
I lean UCF in this one. They won't be intimidated at all going into Columbus. UCF is a strong football team, good running game. Solid defensively. I don't particularly love this number, but will not be surprised if UCF goes the distance in this one to get the backdoor cover.

UNC -8.5 at Wake
I think UNC should be double-digit favorites, so I'm with you here. Still a slight concern because Wake is such a well-coached football team. I may chicken out and tease this with Wisconsin.

Mizzou +3 at home v. UGA
Pass. UGA has not done too well in these types of games the last few years. They are the better team, but I'll just pass on this one.

Wisconsin -8 at Oregon St.
see above. I like Wisconsin to win.

Texas A&m -2 at home v. UF
Avoiding the opossum potential of UF (they were vanilla on Saturday). I expect a better effort, but no idea what winds up happening.

Stanford -14 at home v. Duke
I like Duke. They'll go to the final whistle, and have the potential to put up points. Stanford really struggled across the board with a terrible San Jose team

OK St. -13.5 at U of Arizona
Arizona can move the ball, but failed to put up points on the scoreboard. I don't think they'll have as much difficulty this week. OKState played the worst team in football last weekend. Huge step up in class this weekend. May go against you on this one.



Any thoughts?
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japancane said:
I'm going to ride the Malzahn train this weekend with Ark St -22 over Memphis. Memphis is a brutal team. Ark St puts up 50 on them, no problem, 2 units
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Agreed. Arkansas State did what I expected last weekend. Left the starters to get work in. Oregon's reserves are better than Memphis' starters, and Malzhan made sure to get positive reps for his guys to be ready this weekend. I'm riding with you here.
 
CaneGrad05 said:
RBhurricane87 said:
Games I'm looking at:

Ohio St. -17.5 at home v. UCF
I lean UCF in this one. They won't be intimidated at all going into Columbus. UCF is a strong football team, good running game. Solid defensively. I don't particularly love this number, but will not be surprised if UCF goes the distance in this one to get the backdoor cover.

UNC -8.5 at Wake
I think UNC should be double-digit favorites, so I'm with you here. Still a slight concern because Wake is such a well-coached football team. I may chicken out and tease this with Wisconsin.

Mizzou +3 at home v. UGA
Pass. UGA has not done too well in these types of games the last few years. They are the better team, but I'll just pass on this one.

Wisconsin -8 at Oregon St.
see above. I like Wisconsin to win.

Texas A&m -2 at home v. UF
Avoiding the opossum potential of UF (they were vanilla on Saturday). I expect a better effort, but no idea what winds up happening.

Stanford -14 at home v. Duke
I like Duke. They'll go to the final whistle, and have the potential to put up points. Stanford really struggled across the board with a terrible San Jose team

OK St. -13.5 at U of Arizona
Arizona can move the ball, but failed to put up points on the scoreboard. I don't think they'll have as much difficulty this week. OKState played the worst team in football last weekend. Huge step up in class this weekend. May go against you on this one.



Any thoughts?
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I appreciate your feedback.

I'm not set on any of these games either, they were just the few that caught my eye.

Any other games you're looking at other than UNC and Wisconsin?
 
Week 1: 9-3 (+5.7 units)

UCF
Michigan State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Florida
Miami
Clemson
Alabama
Arkansas St/Oregon Over
Oregon
Georgia Tech
GT/VT Under
 
Leans:

Utah -7
Virginia -10 (wish I could've grabbed this number earlier, but I think UVA is underrated)
KState -7
KState/Miami o52
Miss State -3
NCState -6.5
UNC -8.5
Syracuse/USC o57.5
Purdue +14.5
Nevada -1
Wisconsin -7.5
Oregon o73
LSU/Washington u53
Arkansas St -23
UGA/Missouri o54
Northwestern +3.5
Duke +15.5 (This one is climbing quickly)
Arizona +13.5
Arizona/Oklahoma State o69.5
Arizona ST/Illinois o48.5
 
May have to rethink stance on UCF-Ohio State. Latavious Murray definitely looked like the most dynamic running back on the team last week, and has been ruled out for this week against Ohio State. I don't think UCF can force the Buckeyes to turn the ball over, and without Murray, I'm not sure they'll be able to consistently move the chains. Was not impressed with Storm Johnson in week 1.
 
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CaneGrad05 said:
May have to rethink stance on UCF-Ohio State. Latavious Murray definitely looked like the most dynamic running back on the team last week, and has been ruled out for this week against Ohio State. I don't think UCF can force the Buckeyes to turn the ball over, and without Murray, I'm not sure they'll be able to consistently move the chains. Was not impressed with Storm Johnson in week 1.
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That, and I also don't think UCF has the guys on defense to stop OSU's offense. Plus, Meyer LOVES to run up the score.
 
Cincy -3.5
Miami/K-State o52.5
Arkansas St -23
Okla State/Arizona o70

Some early plays I made...think I'm going to see if this Duke spread gets even a little higher before jumping on it. Leaning towards Michigan -21 and Ohio State -17.5, as well.
 
Air Grady said:
Cincy -3.5
Miami/K-State o52.5
Arkansas St -23
Okla State/Arizona o70

Some early plays I made...think I'm going to see if this Duke spread gets even a little higher before jumping on it. Leaning towards Michigan -21 and Ohio State -17.5, as well.
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I had to go ahead and play Miami over as well, with it rising to 52.5. I don't see how that number doesn't go up, and I definitely think the over is the correct play with Miami's inability to play defense. I hope the Canes offense is legit- even without the big plays, should still be able to replicate last year's performance.

With you on ArkState at 23-- couldn't wait for everyone else to catchup on that one. Nabbed OKState/Arizona at 69.5. Same idea.

Michigan scares me. That's a big number, and they got beat up pretty bad. Wouldn't be surprised to see them lick their wounds a bit this week, but can understand the play.

Pitt-Cincy line is way too fishy for my liking.
 
I'm seeing the first significant line movements in the NFL today:

Giants -3.5 vs. Cowboys (started -4)
Saints -7 vs. Redskins (started -9)
Texans -12 vs. Dolphins (started -10)
Chiefs +3 vs. Falcons (started +1)
Broncos -2 vs. Steelers (started -1)

I'm taking the Giants before it gets back to -4, which I expect it to.
 
I like:

Duke +15
Oklahoma State -10.5 and over at 69.5 (could easily see a OSU 50-something UAz 30-something score)
Oregon over 75
Miami over 53.5 (seen it at 54 already)
Oregon State +8
UVA -10
UNC -8
ASU-Illinois over at 49.5
 
So, we've got Shady Line Week early, ay?

Wisconsin only giving 8.
Duke only getting 15.

Joe Green is back and he's thirsty for more.
 
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I'm the only one taking Mizzou, eh? Its at +2 now I guess, but I think they'll win outright.

With you guys on Ark State. Have them at -21.

Played the Oregon over at 73.5 and will make a 2* play on their first half spread. It would be a safe bet every single weekend to take the over when it comes out and then the under right before kickoff. We'll see on that this week.

Ball State hit 27.5, bought it up to 28. That either has let down game or back door cover written all over it.

La Tech over Houston is just too easy. I haven't seen that mentioned here lately.

As for UCF, I am going to have such a tough time gauging their motivation on the year. If they give up a few points early it could be a blowout.
 
CaneGrad05 said:
Leans:

Utah -7 ----> Utah -7.5 now
Virginia -10
KState -7 ---> KState -6.5
KState/Miami o52 ------> 53.5
Miss State -3
NCState -6.5 ------> -5
UNC -8.5 -----> -10.5
Syracuse/USC o57.5 -----> 59
Purdue +14.5
Nevada -1
Wisconsin -7.5 ----> 8
Oregon o73 ------> 77
LSU/Washington u53
Arkansas St -23
UGA/Missouri o54
Northwestern +3.5
Duke +15.5 (This one is climbing quickly) ---> made it to 16, now back to +15
Arizona +13.5 -----> +10.5
Arizona/Oklahoma State o69.5
Arizona ST/Illinois o48.5 ---- > 49
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Some rather big changes in these games I was looking at. Looks like I lost out on several good ones that piqued my interest early, notably UNC, Arizona, and the Oregon over. Only one I took advantage of yesterday was Miami/KState o52.5 and have pending Arkansas State -23.
 
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