My thought is anyone planning to bet Miami should probably wait. I would suspect the spread is more likely to go up than down. I certainly wouldn't be in any hurry to grab +3 or even +3.5, which is scattered available.
No inside information on this. I haven't heard how any of the major betting groups plan to play. Just instincts after living in Las Vegas for 25 years. Much more often than not in a situation like this the road favorite is bet up.
That's when there are two consecutive strenuous games and the home team is considered the weaker team in each. Granted, the Canes were bet to favorite last week. That was an extremely unusual major push away from the power ratings gap. But when the home team pulls a so-called surprise in the first game, the team itself and particularly the fan base tend to become overconfident. Then it turns out the first game was the bargain, not the second one.
It's very frequent for those betting groups who won a week earlier on the home team to turn around and oppose the same team a week later. Essentially they have created their own value. The wager and result from a week earlier shove the second week's line into near parity with the number from a week earlier, even though the second opponent is considerably better than last week's opponent. The ruthless betting groups will understand that and play accordingly, while the fans are still in hoopla from the prior result and can't imagine it won't repeat.
Obviously this won't be popular. Who cares? I focus on more often than not. Regardless of this result when the next similar situation arrives I'll apply the same thinking.
