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NFL Draft: The Effects on Recruiting

Rellyrell

Rellyrell

Heisman Winner
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@DMoney posted info regarding players drafted by state, and that had me thinking about how all of this translate to recruiting.

I know we’re happy about our two 1st round picks, but keep in mind, Golden produced three 1st round draft picks from 2015-16, including two in 2015, as well. The results is that it didn’t change our perception to others.

The fact is, The NFL Draft is free recruiting advertisement. There was another graphic that D put up in his thread, and that was the total # of draft picks. On paper, we have gotten more players drafted than Clemson, so why do we constantly get out recruited by them?

What’s not shown in that graphic is the amount of first 3-round draftees each school produces. What’s important to a kid is not just winning, but security & money. Typically, if you’re drafted in the first 3 rounds, you’re going to last longer in the NFL as opposed to those drafted 4th & after. (Yes, there’s data on this)

Here’s what the top recruiting programs have done in the last five years in regards to producing higher draft picks (1st - 3rd rounds):

1. Bama (36)
2. OSU (29)
3. LSU (24)
4. Michigan (17)
5. UF (16) ; UGA (16) ; Clemson (16)
6. OU (14)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Miami (4)

So a couple of things standout from DMoney’s post

1. Either we’re not recruiting FL appropriately, or the guys we’re getting from this state are not being developed

2. Top recruits r going to be hesitant coming to us b/c we’re not getting them paid at the same clip as our competitors at the next level.

We need to continually show we’re a program where guys can come in, compete for at least conference titles, and more importantly, get drafted in favorable rounds. Getting 2 guys drafted is a start, but we must continue this trend to increase our recruiting profile.
 
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Bad stat for Michigan. If JH wasn’t a Michigan alum he would’ve been fired a year ago. Other than Taint who are they competing with talent wise?

At least UF and UGA can cry about being in the $EC but Michigan has no excuse.

That stat tells you everything about the program.

We don’t consistently get the elite high school prospects. If half the NFL first round picks will be busts what do you think the bust rate will be for high school prospects?

So that means we have to hit on the few elite prospects we get which is unlikely.

Bama and O$U hoard a lot of the elite prospects which increases the chances of them hitting on one which increases the chances of that hit being selected in the first three rounds which increases the chances of getting the elite high school prospects.

Rinse and repeat 😩
 
Canesq said:
Bad stat for Michigan. If JH wasn’t a Michigan alum he would’ve been fired a year ago. Other than Taint who are they competing with talent wise?
Click to expand...

Michigan is seriously a joke of a program. They have one title since 1950. The only reason they have so many wins is they've been playing since the dawn of time. They're closer as a football program to Princeton than even something like a Florida State.

How they haven't canned Harbaugh at this point is beyond me. I'm guessing he's got a crazy buyout.
 
CashMoneyCane said:
Michigan is seriously a joke of a program. They have one title since 1950. The only reason they have so many wins is they've been playing since the dawn of time. They're closer as a football program to Princeton than even something like a Florida State.

How they haven't canned Harbaugh at this point is beyond me. I'm guessing he's got a crazy buyout.
Click to expand...

Harbaugh since 2015: 49-22 (1-4 in bowl games, 2 NY6 appearances)

Miami since 2015: 48-28 (1-5 in bowl games, 1 NY6 appearance)

Let’s not cast stones. And the reason Harbaugh hasn’t been fired is b/c he’s been the most successful coach since the Lloyd Carr era, winning 10+ games multiple times. However, after the 2-4 season, I believe they changed the language to make it a more palatable buy out if he screws up again.
 
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I think its all the above. We haven't recruited nor have we developed players well enough.

All the schools you point out there, come down here and hand pick their recruits and leave us with the rest, of course we keep a few every now and then, but can't seem to develop them, kinda flat line after frosh years. If we can put a few first rounders in next year things would be looking up.
 
We havent recruited/evaluated (thats the key word here imo) as well as we could have and we havent developed as well as we could have.

If you dont/cant recruit well but develop really well, you are Wisconsin. If you recruit really well but cant develop that well, you are Michigan.

If you can do both, you are Bama. Everyone wants to be Bama.
 
2 coaching transitions in the 5 year window certainly hasn’t helped. Makes it tough to isolate variables. We’ve certainly recruited well enough to be better than we’ve been for the past 15 years. So Fla Evaluations have undoubtedly been problematic. Seeing the kids more and knowing more about that hasn’t proven to be an advantage. We’re never going to get all the Surtain, Jerry Jeudy, Dalvin Cook type no brainers but we need more than we’ve gotten and they’d come if we consistently got the Elijah Moore’s and won with them.

Macro, the big problem to me is that we haven’t had smart X and O head coaches and still don’t. We have buzzwords, cool graphics, and very professional press conferences after we lose to a tech school again somehow. We’ve had either no clear tactical identity or the wrong tactical identity (Golden) and have relied on huge talent disparities to win. When we’re much better than the opponents, we’ve been decent. When we’re a bit better, we’ve been average. Not a single team has overachieved its talent. Arguably last year where we had holes in half our position groups and King pulled 3 games out of his ***.

Hard not to be down on the program. We’re in the upper echelon of less with more by every metric, and the eye test. Manny has proven to me that he’s a below average gameday and tactical coach. To his credit, he wins the offseason and seems to have some understanding of how to augment his limitations. But they’re limitations. The UNC game was appalling and shows the gigantic holes in his basic fundamental strategies that somebody really aware of them can exploit.

We’ve targeted program managers in lieu of brilliant tacticians and so we’ve had a very professionally presented mediocre team. I’ve got hope for Manny but it’s mostly based on optimism for the sake of it.
 
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HurricaneKush said:
2 coaching transitions in the 5 year window certainly hasn’t helped. Makes it tough to isolate variables. We’ve certainly recruited well enough to be better than we’ve been for the past 15 years. So Fla Evaluations have undoubtedly been problematic. Seeing the kids more and knowing more about that hasn’t proven to be an advantage. We’re never going to get all the Surtain, Jerry Jeudy, Dalvin Cook type no brainers but we need more than we’ve gotten and they’d come if we consistently got the Elijah Moore’s and won with them.

Macro, the big problem to me is that we haven’t had smart X and O head coaches and still don’t. We have buzzwords, cool graphics, and very professional press conferences after we lose to a tech school again somehow. We’ve had either no clear tactical identity or the wrong tactical identity (Golden) and have relied on huge talent disparities to win. When we’re much better than the opponents, we’ve been decent. When we’re a bit better, we’ve been average. Not a single team has overachieved its talent. Arguably last year where we had holes in half our position groups and King pulled 3 games out of his ***.

Hard not to be down on the program. We’re in the upper echelon of less with more by every metric, and the eye test. Manny has proven to me that he’s a below average gameday and tactical coach. To his credit, he wins the offseason and seems to have some understanding of how to augment his limitations. But they’re limitations. The UNC game was appalling and shows the gigantic holes in his basic fundamental strategies that somebody really aware of them can exploit.

We’ve targeted program managers in lieu of brilliant tacticians and so we’ve had a very professionally presented mediocre team. I’ve got hope for Manny but it’s mostly based on optimism for the sake of it.
Click to expand...
Couldn't have said it better. I've never thought "We really outcoached this team" or "what a great gameplan by the staff". We win off talent alone for the most part. It's even more apparent when we lose because there's no correction; we'll literally continue to run into a wall.

In regards to Manny, an old dog usually doesn't learn new tricks. All we can do is hope he and the staff up their recruiting skills and get better developers for now.
 
HurricaneKush said:
2 coaching transitions in the 5 year window certainly hasn’t helped. Makes it tough to isolate variables. We’ve certainly recruited well enough to be better than we’ve been for the past 15 years. So Fla Evaluations have undoubtedly been problematic. Seeing the kids more and knowing more about that hasn’t proven to be an advantage. We’re never going to get all the Surtain, Jerry Jeudy, Dalvin Cook type no brainers but we need more than we’ve gotten and they’d come if we consistently got the Elijah Moore’s and won with them.

Macro, the big problem to me is that we haven’t had smart X and O head coaches and still don’t. We have buzzwords, cool graphics, and very professional press conferences after we lose to a tech school again somehow. We’ve had either no clear tactical identity or the wrong tactical identity (Golden) and have relied on huge talent disparities to win. When we’re much better than the opponents, we’ve been decent. When we’re a bit better, we’ve been average. Not a single team has overachieved its talent. Arguably last year where we had holes in half our position groups and King pulled 3 games out of his ***.

Hard not to be down on the program. We’re in the upper echelon of less with more by every metric, and the eye test. Manny has proven to me that he’s a below average gameday and tactical coach. To his credit, he wins the offseason and seems to have some understanding of how to augment his limitations. But they’re limitations. The UNC game was appalling and shows the gigantic holes in his basic fundamental strategies that somebody really aware of them can exploit.

We’ve targeted program managers in lieu of brilliant tacticians and so we’ve had a very professionally presented mediocre team. I’ve got hope for Manny but it’s mostly based on optimism for the sake of it.
Click to expand...
Great post
 
Rellyrell said:
@DMoney posted info regarding players drafted by state, and that had me thinking about how all of this translate to recruiting.

I know we’re happy about our two 1st round picks, but keep in mind, Golden produced three 1st round draft picks from 2015-16, including two in 2015, as well. The results is that it didn’t change our perception to others.

The fact is, The NFL Draft is free recruiting advertisement. There was another graphic that D put up in his thread, and that was the total # of draft picks. On paper, we have gotten more players drafted than Clemson, so why do we constantly get out recruited by them?

What’s not shown in that graphic is the amount of first 3-round draftees each school produces. What’s important to a kid is not just winning, but security & money. Typically, if you’re drafted in the first 3 rounds, you’re going to last longer in the NFL as opposed to those drafted 4th & after. (Yes, there’s data on this)

Here’s what the top recruiting programs have done in the last five years in regards to producing higher draft picks (1st - 3rd rounds):

1. Bama (36)
2. OSU (29)
3. LSU (24)
4. Michigan (17)
5. UF (16) ; UGA (16) ; Clemson (16)
6. OU (14)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Miami (4)

So a couple of things standout from DMoney’s post

1. Either we’re not recruiting FL appropriately, or the guys we’re getting from this state are not being developed

2. Top recruits r going to be hesitant coming to us b/c we’re not getting them paid at the same clip as our competitors at the next level.

We need to continually show we’re a program where guys can come in, compete for at least conference titles, and more importantly, get drafted in favorable rounds. Getting 2 guys drafted is a start, but we must continue this trend to increase our recruiting profile.
Click to expand...
I’ve actually been cooking up a similar post to this, but IMO the lack of top picks boils down to pure recruiting. This is the result of losing battles.

We've had some Day 3 guys that could’ve been Day 2 guys with better development, deployment and staying four years. But the lack of first rounders is the result of signing day.

The best recruiting tool is pointing to a local guy who already did it. That’s why Alabama has an assembly line of first round South Florida WR.
 
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Rellyrell said:
Harbaugh since 2015: 49-22 (1-4 in bowl games, 2 NY6 appearances)

Miami since 2015: 48-28 (1-5 in bowl games, 1 NY6 appearance)

Let’s not cast stones. And the reason Harbaugh hasn’t been fired is b/c he’s been the most successful coach since the Lloyd Carr era, winning 10+ games multiple times. However, after the 2-4 season, I believe they changed the language to make it a more palatable buy out if he screws up again.
Click to expand...
It's not really about casting stones though. How many coaches have worked at Miami since Harbaugh started at M? Golden got fired, then Scott, then Richt, and now Diaz is on the hot seat. Dude is getting paid more per year than all our fired coaches combined and has only won one more game? Could you imagine what the Michigan version of CIS must be like? If they even have any slurps, I bet they're drawn and quartered daily.
 
DMoney said:
I’ve actually been cooking up a similar post to this, but IMO the lack of top picks boils down to pure recruiting. This is the result of losing battles.

We've had some Day 3 guys that could’ve been Day 2 guys with better development, deployment and staying four years. But the lack of first rounders is the result of signing day.

The best recruiting tool is pointing to a local guy who already did it. That’s why Alabama has an assembly line of first round South Florida WR.
Click to expand...
yeah ... amari cooper's success opened the flood gate for them ... we may have a chance at DE, TE, but we have to develop guys far better
 
DMoney said:
I’ve actually been cooking up a similar post to this, but IMO the lack of top picks boils down to pure recruiting. This is the result of losing battles.

We've had some Day 3 guys that could’ve been Day 2 guys with better development, deployment and staying four years. But the lack of first rounders is the result of signing day.

The best recruiting tool is pointing to a local guy who already did it. That’s why Alabama has an assembly line of first round South Florida WR.
Click to expand...

While the the bold is certainly a piece of the pie...we've got to develop the players we DO get.

Players rated over .9500 on 247 from 2018 to 2010.

Lorenzo Lingard
Brevin Jordan
Nesta Silvera
Mark Pope
Jarren Williams
Al Blades
Jeff Thomas
Navaughn Donaldson
DJ Johnson
Sam Bruce
Mark Walton
Chad Thomas
Joseph Yearby
Kc McDermott
Trevor Darling
AQ Muhammad
Stacy Coley
Kevin Olsen
Artie Burns
Duke Johnson
Tracy Howard
Jelani Hamilton
Tyriq McCord
Anthony Chickillo
Seantrel Henderson
Storm Johnson

Over the past decade, we've had 9 players drafted from our "top (highly regarded) prospects". One first round pick...three Day 2 guys...five Day 5 guys. Not sure where they are on depth charts right now, but I don't think any are starting in the NFL right now.

So, yes, I agree...we definitely need to win battles...we also need to do something with what we do have.
 
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Rellyrell said:
@DMoney posted info regarding players drafted by state, and that had me thinking about how all of this translate to recruiting.

I know we’re happy about our two 1st round picks, but keep in mind, Golden produced three 1st round draft picks from 2015-16, including two in 2015, as well. The results is that it didn’t change our perception to others.

The fact is, The NFL Draft is free recruiting advertisement. There was another graphic that D put up in his thread, and that was the total # of draft picks. On paper, we have gotten more players drafted than Clemson, so why do we constantly get out recruited by them?

What’s not shown in that graphic is the amount of first 3-round draftees each school produces. What’s important to a kid is not just winning, but security & money. Typically, if you’re drafted in the first 3 rounds, you’re going to last longer in the NFL as opposed to those drafted 4th & after. (Yes, there’s data on this)

Here’s what the top recruiting programs have done in the last five years in regards to producing higher draft picks (1st - 3rd rounds):

1. Bama (36)
2. OSU (29)
3. LSU (24)
4. Michigan (17)
5. UF (16) ; UGA (16) ; Clemson (16)
6. OU (14)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Miami (4)

So a couple of things standout from DMoney’s post

1. Either we’re not recruiting FL appropriately, or the guys we’re getting from this state are not being developed

2. Top recruits r going to be hesitant coming to us b/c we’re not getting them paid at the same clip as our competitors at the next level.

We need to continually show we’re a program where guys can come in, compete for at least conference titles, and more importantly, get drafted in favorable rounds. Getting 2 guys drafted is a start, but we must continue this trend to increase our recruiting profile.
Click to expand...
👆
#Painful
#Truth
#GetTheShîtFixed
 
Rellyrell said:
Harbaugh since 2015: 49-22 (1-4 in bowl games, 2 NY6 appearances)

Miami since 2015: 48-28 (1-5 in bowl games, 1 NY6 appearance)

Let’s not cast stones. And the reason Harbaugh hasn’t been fired is b/c he’s been the most successful coach since the Lloyd Carr era, winning 10+ games multiple times. However, after the 2-4 season, I believe they changed the language to make it a more palatable buy out if he screws up again.
Click to expand...

Harbaugh's been great at recruiting Defense - and god awful at recruiting Offense

He's only recruited 1 QB/RB/WR taken in the first 3 rounds - and that was Nico Collins who just got drafted.
 
BoxingRobes said:
While the the bold is certainly a piece of the pie...we've got to develop the players we DO get.

Players rated over .9500 on 247 from 2018 to 2010.

Lorenzo Lingard
Brevin Jordan
Nesta Silvera
Mark Pope
Jarren Williams
Al Blades
Jeff Thomas
Navaughn Donaldson
DJ Johnson
Sam Bruce
Mark Walton
Chad Thomas
Joseph Yearby
Kc McDermott
Trevor Darling
AQ Muhammad
Stacy Coley
Kevin Olsen
Artie Burns
Duke Johnson
Tracy Howard
Jelani Hamilton
Tyriq McCord
Anthony Chickillo
Seantrel Henderson
Storm Johnson

Over the past decade, we've had 9 players drafted from our "top (highly regarded) prospects". One first round pick...three Day 2 guys...five Day 5 guys. Not sure where they are on depth charts right now, but I don't think any are starting in the NFL right now.

So, yes, I agree...we definitely need to win battles...we also need to do something with what we do have.
Click to expand...
Ugh - that hurts. What stands out to me (besides development) is:

6 of the 26 (23%) transferred. Transfers will happen, but gotta get that % down
We had two coaching transitions - which always hurts recruiting that year
"The Cloud" is downplayed now for some reason. It definitely hamstrung us for 2-3 years

Still - gotta do better
 
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