I still like Watson the best of the lot. When you have ideal touch it opens up so many windows that the line drive guys can't even think about. They can only wing it on a 4 iron trajectory play after play while the touch guys create their own permutations, rescuing one play after another.
The question is whether Watson can make those dart throws when required. The combine really doesn't test that. They have a series of one-on-one drills and ask the quarterback to hit the guy on the break. It's mostly about anticipation, timing and accuracy. There is never a safety trailing from the opposite direction, for example, forcing an ambitious throw.
So while these velocity numbers are interesting it hardly tells the full story. Watson obviously plays relaxed and prefers a touch-type pass. He was the most impressive quarterback at the combine in the passing drills and I didn't think it was particularly close.
But I could understand the concern that he is like Matt Leinart, another college quarterback with ideal touch but who simply lacked the vital 5 or 10% juice on this throws to get through NFL windows on those critical 3rd and 10 throws.
I always like to go back and look at evaluations from much earlier in the process from respected sources, so there isn't a fixation on recency. My belief is everything tends to drift back to the beginning. Along those lines, I kept this link (below) from early September, sourced from a top Seattle Seahawk draft blogger on the site fieldgulls. Those guys do the best job of blending metric analysis with tape study. After all, tape alone has a pathetic record. I've heard about tape all my life. Somehow the guys who study tape try to mesmerize others. It is nothing but laughable. If tape alone were the answer, along with slanting everything toward the final months of the process, then the connect percentage would be massive. After all, that's the combo that is abused by almost everyone. Yet we're stuck with one miss after another and only a handful of teams at any given time who are thriving through the draft, even though this is the ultimate open process. Everything is available. You're not evaluating guys who played on a different planet or different sport or in a closet with the lights off. It's actually unbelievable how many glaring mistakes are made using this wonderful fixation on tape and schemes and system fit. A flawed process is somehow glorified and passed down to the next generation of flawed processors.
Anyway, Rob Slaton has DeShaun Watson on the list of 4 elite guys from that early September evaluation. He also has Jabrill Peppers topping the second tier. I agree with that also. The conventional wisdom types got together a couple of months ago and decided that Peppers was overrated. Then it got passed around like some type of brainstorm. I guess when you win too many awards you have to clear the slate and start over again. That must be the reason for devaluing Peppers. Slaton also has Jamal Adams of LSU atop the most overrated list. I agree with that. Good player with an indestructible frame but simply lacking ideal instincts in the passing game, and only moderate athletic ability. The latter was verified when Adams tested in the 36th percentile in athletic ability at the combine.
Here is that link:
2017 NFL draft class: Players to watch for the 1st round - Field Gulls
On a day to day basis, Rob Slaton and a couple of guest analysts do a great job on this link. It has a Seahawk perspective but excellent information overall:
Seahawks Draft Blog
