With 7-8 games left to be played, where teams stand is actually pretty clear. Here are my thoughts:
Clearly in (barring a Falcons-like collapse): (6) -- UNC, UL, FSU, UVa, Duke, and ND
Clearly out (barring an absolute miracle): (3) -- BC, Pitt, and NCSt
On the bubble: (6) -- Canes, VT, Wake, Clemson, GT, and Syracuse
Just a guess, but I suspect that 2-4 bubble teams are dancing in March. Here is where I would rank each team's likelihood of making the tourney (as of today, and excluding Syracuse -- see below):
VT -- .500 ACC record, decent RPI (40), worst loss @ #91 NCState
Miami -- .500 ACC record, RPI (53) but other ratings are better (29-45), signature win, worst loss @ #69 Syracuse
Wake -- 5-6 ACC record, pretty good RPI (28), no wins against top 50 RPI, worst loss @ #69 Syracuse, difficult to them to win 9 ACC games
Georgia Tech -- 5-6 ACC record, bad RPI (75), two signature wins (UNC and FSU), bad loss v. #118 Ohio
Clemson -- 3-7 ACC record, decent RPI (45), 4 wins against top 50 RPI (best @ #19 USC), bad loss to #144 Oklahoma, may not win 8 ACC
The one that I can't figure out is Syracuse. Here is their resume:
Syracuse -- 7-4 ACC record, but #69 RPI, 2 signature wins (FSU and UVa), three bad losses (#136 UConn and #119 SJU) and @ #180 BC, realistically could finish ACC play anywhere between 11-7 and 8-10
Clearly in (barring a Falcons-like collapse): (6) -- UNC, UL, FSU, UVa, Duke, and ND
Clearly out (barring an absolute miracle): (3) -- BC, Pitt, and NCSt
On the bubble: (6) -- Canes, VT, Wake, Clemson, GT, and Syracuse
Just a guess, but I suspect that 2-4 bubble teams are dancing in March. Here is where I would rank each team's likelihood of making the tourney (as of today, and excluding Syracuse -- see below):
VT -- .500 ACC record, decent RPI (40), worst loss @ #91 NCState
Miami -- .500 ACC record, RPI (53) but other ratings are better (29-45), signature win, worst loss @ #69 Syracuse
Wake -- 5-6 ACC record, pretty good RPI (28), no wins against top 50 RPI, worst loss @ #69 Syracuse, difficult to them to win 9 ACC games
Georgia Tech -- 5-6 ACC record, bad RPI (75), two signature wins (UNC and FSU), bad loss v. #118 Ohio
Clemson -- 3-7 ACC record, decent RPI (45), 4 wins against top 50 RPI (best @ #19 USC), bad loss to #144 Oklahoma, may not win 8 ACC
The one that I can't figure out is Syracuse. Here is their resume:
Syracuse -- 7-4 ACC record, but #69 RPI, 2 signature wins (FSU and UVa), three bad losses (#136 UConn and #119 SJU) and @ #180 BC, realistically could finish ACC play anywhere between 11-7 and 8-10