Any of these scenarios could be true. At the same time, based on the number of actual human beings who have told me similar stories (not just anonymous names on the internet), Occam's Razor would suggest a single, simpler explanation.
Based on what I know about requesting e-mail addresses and mass mailers from working with the Alumni Association, as well as the format of the letter itself, it is clear that the Athletic Department sent out e-mails to 2019 season ticket holders (even though many people had not yet renewed season tickets) and 2019 Hurricane Club contributors (even though the year was only a month old). The Athletic Department should have pulled 2018 information and then told any season-ticket-holders or HC members who had not yet paid that they were in Tier 4.
Instead, people who had not yet renewed season tickets or made 2019 HC contributions got no e-mail.
In my own situation, I had not yet made my HC contribution (though I do so every year), but I chose to renew my season tickets with the 12 month payment plan, thus I got the e-mail. And after the first e-mail, I made my HC contribution.
But to call a guy a liar over saying he didn't get the e-mails is just ridiculous.