Miami vs Duke (Breakdown)

[MotoSniper]

[video=youtube_share;5RqNP7ryJvo]https://youtu.be/5RqNP7ryJvo[/video]
[video=youtube_share;JCqS1KjcP3I]https://youtu.be/JCqS1KjcP3I[/video]

We play Duke this Friday & instead of spending all week on Toledo, we need to shift the focus on Coach K is The Devil University.

On Offense: vs UNC
- QB Daniel Jones was 18/34 for 202yds & 1TD with 11att 28yds rushing.
- RB's Brittain Brown 10att 90yds & Shaun Wilson 18att 56yds rushing
- WR's T.J Rahming 6rec 73yds, Johnathan Lloyd 4rec 49yds

Gained a total of 388yds off 79 plays rushing for 186yds on 45 carries.
They were 3/16 on 3rd down, 2/3 on 4th down, gave up 3 sacks & only had 2 penalties.

On Defense: vs UNC
- Gave up 377yds total 118yds rushing, 259yds passing & sacked UNC 4 times.
- Had the #1 ranked Rush Defense coming into the game.

On Offense: vs Baylor
- QB Daniel Jones was 20/35 193yds 0TD's 1INT with 11att -14yds rushing
- RB's Shaun Wilson 18att 176yds 2TD's & Brittain Brown 18att 86yds & 1TD
- WR's Shaun Wilson (RB) 5rec 32yds, BBrown (RB) 4rec 71yds, TJ Rahming 4rec 38yds, JLloyd 3rec 26yds

Gained a total of 439yds off 86 plays rushing for 246yds on 51 carries.
They were 4/18 on 3rd down, 2/2 on 4th down, had 2 fumbles, an INT, gave up 3 sacks & had 5 penalties.

On Defense: vs Baylor
- Gave up 320yds total 57yds rushing & 263yds passing & sacked Baylor 5 times.

Overall, the key to beating this team is stopping the run. Their QB is apart of their running game, he rushed for 16att 108yds & 2TD's vs Northwestern. But otherwise, they use him sparingly to keep Defenses off balance.

Gotta stop Senior RB Shaun Wilson & RFr Brittain Brown, that's the key. You make them one dimensional & you simplify the game for the Defense. Their OL has 3 Redshirt Seniors, so they're a veteran bunch, but there's sacks to be had. We all know our Secondary has struggled, but their best WR is TJ Rahming, they also have a big 6'3 WR Chambers who they barely use.

Our Safety's have to be disciplined, their passing game is entirely set up off making LB's/S's hesitate on play action out the gun. It's mainly a one read & go Offense, they're not running anything too advanced, they beat you off precise execution, not much complexity.

For us on Offense, they have a pretty good pass rush, their best players are DT Mike Ramsay & LB Joe Giles-Harris. They stop the run well, but haven't faced a duo of RB's like Walton & Homer, they also gave up some big runs to UNC's QB, so Rosier should exceed well in this spot.

Their DB's are slow imo based on those games. They were routinely beat on Deep routes, if UNC had a better QB they would've beat them. Seniors S Jeremy McDuffie, Alonzo Saxton & their CB's are their weak link. CB Gilbert is solid, the rest not so much. Our WR's should eat these fools up, especially Ahmmon, Cager & Berrios in the slot.

I think we matchup well vs them, hopefully the short week galvanizes this Defense to come out ready to play. This is a team you need to get an early lead on, they've controlled the ball in every game, they pound the rock & win the TOP battle.

I think we win 37-24, Rosier should open up the run game for Walton/Homer & hope Richt takes some deep shots early. If Richards is 100% he should ball, but it's time to unleash Harley & JT, their CB's cannot run with these guys.

Great roll up EL! I agree overall. The key to a win is two-fold...stop the run as you said,which we most definitely will, and defend the short to mid range passing game well. If we come out playing a soft zone giving the WRs a 10-15 yard cushion, they will eat us up. Their QB is young but has some talent and can make plays with his legs. Definitely feel that we need to go more man base coverage with a QB spy on known passing downs. Don't think their QB will be making many 5 step drops since they work out of the gun and are known to get the ball out quick essentially neutralizing our advantage up front.

Hope Primo, Manny Diaz gives Dean/Bandy/anyone else besides Delaney some burn on the boundary.

 

[North Florida Cane]

2) They have 15 sacks in four games, including 12 against the three major conference teams they've played. I admit I am still iffy on our pass protection against a legitimate Division I-A defense, especially with a still-developing first-year starter behind center. We really don't need Malik Rosier getting knocked around Friday night and making ill-advised throws under pressure or on third-and-long.

Why are you iffy about our pass protection? This is basically the same OL from the second half of the year that kept our statue of a QB upright. The only difference is we have added a future first rounder to the OL. Our OL has been very good in pass protection ever since Lindor got hurt and loss his job. There's no reason to believe that is going to stop.

You may well be right.

But the Blue Devils — hard as it is to believe — look like they have a pretty decent defense.

Just think we need to make Rosier's job as easy as possible Friday to help us stay clear of any costly picks or sack + fumbles.

 

[Memnon]

Great previews.

Thanks to Liberty City and all who help out here!

Two questions/concerns come to mind:

1) They threw the ball 34 times against North Carolina Central and 45 times against Northwestern — and both those games were lopsided victories in the bag well before the start of the fourth quarter. Cutcliffe is a coach who built his reputation as a "take what the defense gives you" guy going back to his time as OC at Tennessee. They watched our game against Toledo. I can't believe they won't check right away to see if we've cleaned up our pass defense as opposed to leaning on the ground game against by far the best defensive front they've seen so far this season.

2) They have 15 sacks in four games, including 12 against the three major conference teams they've played. I admit I am still iffy on our pass protection against a legitimate Division I-A defense, especially with a still-developing first-year starter behind center. We really don't need Malik Rosier getting knocked around Friday night and making ill-advised throws under pressure or on third-and-long.

1) That is true, I didn't include the Northwestern game because it wasn't really competitive on their part & I don't feel it was a game that best represents Duke's Offense. But even in that game, their QB ran for over 100yds which I mentioned in the Defensive part for us.

Of course they are going to throw on us, but they won't come out throwing crazy like Toledo because that's not their game.

They're a run first team, their passing attacking is entirely based on the run game, they're only gonna throw a lot if they can break open some runs early on.

As long as we shut down their run game, we won't have to worry too much about their passing attack imo. I don't believe they have as many WR's as Toledo. Tol was going 4-5wide on us, Duke will get their QB killed if they do that vs us.

2) I mentioned their pass rush in the op, they have a good rush & are very good against the run, but a lot of that has to do with the opponents they faced. UNC has the worst OL in the ACC, just watch the full game in the OP, their DL just bullied that OL all game.

I will admit, their DT Mike Ramsay is really good & if he's one on one with Darling it could be troublesome, but hopefully we'll get rid of the ball quick.

But, what I saw was a Defense that can be had on the QB run, which Rosier is great at & even though they're great vs run, they haven't seen 2 RB's as good as Walton & Homer this season.

Their secondary is the weak point of their Defense, so I'm hoping we hit them with a quick passing attack, then run the ball off the uptempo no huddle game, then kill'em over the top with the Deep ball. In both games vs UNC & Baylor the Deep passing attack was open all game.

 

[MotoSniper]

Duke is going to give us their best game...bet on it. They are 4-0, looking to get ranked. We beat them the last 2 years to include the miracle in Durham 2 years ago (was at the game, they were demoralized). They have payback on their minds and an experienced QB to run their system. They are very disciplined and will not beat themselves. We need to bring our A game, but we should win by double digits.

 

[ejfudd]

Nice write-up LCE. Agree with your summary.

IMO, Duke will be the game that Delaney makes all of the hyper-critics eat crow. We're lucky to have him!

 

[simplycanes]

i think the defense comes out ready to play and shuts them down and we win easily. i love UM when we are in the "upset special" mode and people are picking against us.

That was happening last week and we needed to get bailed out by penalties and drops before we took the game over...

For all the talk about Toledo's dropped passes and penalties, we had a number of our own too. I am not buying the narrative that Toledo handed us the game. I'm not saying we didn't have to work for it and a few breaks didn't come our way, I'm just saying the latter evened out more than people think.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[mossmadness]

2) They have 15 sacks in four games, including 12 against the three major conference teams they've played. I admit I am still iffy on our pass protection against a legitimate Division I-A defense, especially with a still-developing first-year starter behind center. We really don't need Malik Rosier getting knocked around Friday night and making ill-advised throws under pressure or on third-and-long.

Why are you iffy about our pass protection? This is basically the same OL from the second half of the year that kept our statue of a QB upright. The only difference is we have added a future first rounder to the OL. Our OL has been very good in pass protection ever since Lindor got hurt and loss his job. There's no reason to believe that is going to stop.

You may well be right.

But the Blue Devils — hard as it is to believe — look like they have a pretty decent defense.

Just think we need to make Rosier's job as easy as possible Friday to help us stay clear of any costly picks or sack + fumbles.

I can believe it. But our revamped OL played this DL the last game of the year last year. And paved the way for 500+ yards of offense. I have no doubt their DL has improved, but so has our OL. I don't think Duke's defense has turned into a dominate world beaters in the 4 games since our OL last went up against their DL.

 

[CaneOil]

Walton needs to get as many carries as he can handle. He won't be back next year, so let him run loose. If we can control the ball we win this one going away. He'll have an extra day to rest before the Florida State game, let him run.

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

Good breakdown. If all it takes to (more or less) secure the win is to stop their run then I'm not worried at all. RJ Macintosh stopped the run single handedly last game, and I know the rest of the front 7 will step up.

 

[North Florida Cane]

Great previews.

Thanks to Liberty City and all who help out here!

Two questions/concerns come to mind:

1) They threw the ball 34 times against North Carolina Central and 45 times against Northwestern — and both those games were lopsided victories in the bag well before the start of the fourth quarter. Cutcliffe is a coach who built his reputation as a "take what the defense gives you" guy going back to his time as OC at Tennessee. They watched our game against Toledo. I can't believe they won't check right away to see if we've cleaned up our pass defense as opposed to leaning on the ground game against by far the best defensive front they've seen so far this season.

2) They have 15 sacks in four games, including 12 against the three major conference teams they've played. I admit I am still iffy on our pass protection against a legitimate Division I-A defense, especially with a still-developing first-year starter behind center. We really don't need Malik Rosier getting knocked around Friday night and making ill-advised throws under pressure or on third-and-long.

1) That is true, I didn't include the Northwestern game because it wasn't really competitive on their part & I don't feel it was a game that best represents Duke's Offense. But even in that game, their QB ran for over 100yds which I mentioned in the Defensive part for us.

Of course they are going to throw on us, but they won't come out throwing crazy like Toledo because that's not their game.

They're a run first team, their passing attacking is entirely based on the run game, they're only gonna throw a lot if they can break open some runs early on.

As long as we shut down their run game, we won't have to worry too much about their passing attack imo. I don't believe they have as many WR's as Toledo. Tol was going 4-5wide on us, Duke will get their QB killed if they do that vs us.

2) I mentioned their pass rush in the op, they have a good rush & are very good against the run, but a lot of that has to do with the opponents they faced. UNC has the worst OL in the ACC, just watch the full game in the OP, their DL just bullied that OL all game.

I will admit, their DT Mike Ramsay is really good & if he's one on one with Darling it could be troublesome, but hopefully we'll get rid of the ball quick.

But, what I saw was a Defense that can be had on the QB run, which Rosier is great at & even though they're great vs run, they haven't seen 2 RB's as good as Walton & Homer this season.

Their secondary is the weak point of their Defense, so I'm hoping we hit them with a quick passing attack, then run the ball off the uptempo no huddle game, then kill'em over the top with the Deep ball. In both games vs UNC & Baylor the Deep passing attack was open all game.

Good answers, thanks!

Duke has three decent wins on their resume.

I don't think we can go up there on a short week, slop around and still come home with a W.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

Overall, I agree with LCE and Gogeta and I like the matchup. As surprised/disappointed as many have been with our defense, through two games the run defense has been solid, holding opponents to about 3 yards per rush attempt. Their offensive line looked a little light to me. Per their website, the starting five average 296 lbs (for comparison, UM's OL averages about 310 lbs). Wilson looks like he has some wiggle and change of direction to him - he's the guy to watch, both RBs break tackles. Hopefully our front seven comes prepared. Their QB (Jones) is sneaky athletic and they will call designed runs for him (not just RPO, but draws and naked bootlegs, too). Their offense is also opportunistic with play action downfield. They're definitely a running team but they take their shots. The kind of offense that lulls your secondary into a false sense of security with runs and short routes then hits you for a 30+ yard pass. Our secondary will need to be mature and play with discipline. If they do, I see no reason we shouldn't be able to hold Duke to 20 points or less.

On offense, it sounds like AR is practicing and will go this week, which is huge. If you watch that Baylor game, it got out of control because Baylor couldn't do a **** thing to stop the run (plus turnovers by Baylor). But their speedy WR (Platt) outran their DBs for long TDs twice. Their other WR got behind the DBs on one play as well. And UNC also scored on a deep TD pass. Watching the film, it looks like their corners don't have good speed and their safeties take bad angles and get caught out of position. I see AR getting behind this secondary with relative ease. I also think Walton/Homer will break a few long runs. Duke seems to give a couple up each game. Even NC Central's RB broke a long one (late against the second team, but still). Duke's secondary does seem to have some ball skills, though, and already have several int returns for TDs this season. They will try and jump a route if a ball is thrown outside lazily. But Rosier has thrown some fastballs this season so I'm not too concerned. If anything, it just makes it more likely for one of our quick WRs to take a quick hitch or curl to the house.

Could be a big game for Herndon, too, if our WRs can open up the middle of the field for him. I know we haven't thrown to the TE in the seam much since Richt got here, but with speed on the boundaries and a running game that needs to be respected, I think that's an area to exploit against a secondary that seems to lack real speed and has suspect safeties. I also expect a few long runs from Rosier, since Duke's defense will vacate the middle of the field from time to time.

 

[deleted3746]

Despite our talent deficiency at DB, we are still more talented than Duke and every other coaRstal team.

Miami should win by at least 10.

 

[gfer1988]

If richt calls a game like the second half of Toledo, we win handedly

 

[OBLIVION]

Richt has to be more aggressive from the 1st play.

 

[edge]

Watching the Toledo game again. About half way through. The run defense was good, which was Toledo strong point. The major issues were missed tackles, poor communication in the secondary, and DD falling all over himself. If we clean the first two things up I hope that will be good enough to win.

 

[Calicanerepresent]

I hate Duke.

Duke football used to be IRRELEVANT.

They're a solid ACC team now, and a bowl team.

But our team has its 1st routine week of 2017 (2 consecutive game weekends!) and can actually build upon the Toledo game.

Irma really threw a wrench into the wheelworks, but I think we come out humming now. Back to football shape. AR back in the fold. Rosier looks like he's upwardly mobile (pun intended).

38-17 Canes win.

 

[Loose Cannon]

i think the defense comes out ready to play and shuts them down and we win easily. i love UM when we are in the "upset special" mode and people are picking against us.

That was happening last week and we needed to get bailed out by penalties and drops before we took the game over...

For all the talk about Toledo's dropped passes and penalties, we had a number of our own too. I am not buying the narrative that Toledo handed us the game. I'm not saying we didn't have to work for it and a few breaks didn't come our way, I'm just saying the latter evened out more than people think.

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Yep. Harley dropped a TD, hit him right in the hands, but he was thinking TD before he secured the catch, and Rosier admittedly just flat out missed JT for another sure TD on the ball that got picked off.

On the penalty side, Toledo committed 10 for 77 yards. We had 8 infractions for 75 yards. Not much disparity there and two of ours were 15 yard celebration penalties.

So for all the "we got lucky Toledo committed all those penalties and dropped passes," Had we played a little more disciplined and caught a few more balls, we may have won by 50.

 

[Notsince1985]

We can spread Duke out and gash them all night long. If we don't, it's on the coaches, not the players.

100%.

The staff needs to get our boys ready to go for this game, we shouldn't come out sluggish early, we should come out attacking on both sides of the ball.

Position for position they don't have a single player better than ours, we win the talent battle in all 3 phases of the game. This will come down to preparation & execution.

This is where the Coaches earn their money, short week of prep, on the road in hostile territory, but clear talent advantages, this comes down to Richt/Diaz smacking around ****cliffe & giving him another reason to keep crying about us lol.

It's Duke football.

They had 30k for the opener because all the folks from NC Central came across town for the game.

They had 20K for Northwestern and 26K for Baylor.

It ain't going to be too hostile Friday ...

They will show up for us..

Duke fans on their board are predicting 25-30K fans. Even if they do show up, the stadium seats 40K at most since it was renovated and expanded.

 

[Notsince1985]

The RB, Brown got injured against UNC and is listed as questionable

 

[DerekDohrman]

we are going to crush those cvnts