Good call. The late move is the one I pay most attention to. I've always hated it when I think I have a bargain, and all the early betting trends are in my favor, and then the sharp guys come in very late in the opposite direction. Deflating. More often than not they will be correct.
The subtle late moves of a half point or one point are much more instructive than a late avalanche. The avalanche means the public is involved, and it's some type of overreaction to a new variable.
My friend Mark from USC had a great angle that he applied to college football and basketball. This was long before the internet, and ability to check lines at all hours of every day. He would get the Los Angeles Herald Examiner and chart the lines on every game. He would pay most attention to the ones that hadn't moved all week, and especially in the smaller conferences. Then he'd get the final edition on Saturday as close to kickoff as possible. Any game that hadn't moved all week, then suddenly had a late subtle move of a point or half a point, he would play that team. It was a very successful grind angle. He wasn't betting huge amounts but got cut off by a couple of bookmakers in Los Angeles because he was winning consistently and otherwise not giving them anything they look for, like bettors who go on tilt and double up after a string of defeats, often wagering on sports they normally avoid. Mark was methodical and not making any decisions at all. I really understood the value of that, once I moved to Las Vegas.
Anyway, these offseason early numbers are a different category than week to week during the season. Technically the opening line is Florida -8.5 but it's like a futures bet since so much time and so many variables can intervene. Many of the sources of the historic opening line will not use this -8.5 as the opening number. They will wait until Sunday/Monday prior to game day and list that number as the opener. I know The Gold Sheet does it that way, or at least they did when I had an email exchange a few years ago.
