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Miami/ND analysis-prediction

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Fox305

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Unlike the 2017 matchup, this matchup I believe has more irrational variables being discussed negatively against Miami compared to 2017.

The idea that a healthy Carson Beck is somehow lesser of an option than Carr and some other QBs mentioned is laughable. On resume: he is the most experienced and solidified big game QB left in CFB this year. His down years was Levitt/Nussmeier/Sellers best seasons. There isnt a single QB who faced the level of opposition Beck has faced the last 3 years from practice to games.

The reality is on paper these teams are highly identical in how they’ll approach this year and the position by position is a wash.

In my humble opinion, ND has the advantage at:

RB (A+ to Miami A-)
DB (A to Miami A-)
LB (A to Miami B+)
Head coaching.

Miami has the advantage at:
QB (A to likely B)
OL (A+ to A)
DL (A- to B+).

The deciding factors for the game to me are:

Can Greathouse and ND WRs help Carr and can Miami DL get pressure on Carr.

The last great X-factor is Mario. This is his chance to show where he is as a coach and the program is. Miami doesn’t NEED a win, but this game will likely show how we perform this year and whether or not we’ll get to that next level in the immediate future. I think a win here means Miami charges towards 11-1/12-0 and a date in Charlotte. I don’t see Miami winning this game and losing any if not one.

A loss will be a barometer test showing we aren’t “there.” The likelihood is whatever fails us on 8/31 will fail us again during the season.

I think Miami has far more at stake and I don’t see ND with any generational players that can tip the scale dramatically in their favor this night.

If Miami new DC/players are what they are billed, I expect them to really turn up the heat inspired by a Rabid Hard Rock crowd that’s been waiting for this moment. I don’t see Miami losing because they don’t have a choice but to win as far as perception. This is the moment. Miami in 2025 I expect will mimick the 98 Tennessee Vols in that they lose the 1st pick at QB but are sneakily more balance and excel more the following season with an experience guy. (Tee Martin-Carson Beck).

Miami will win 27-17. A late game INT from the new portal additions will seal ND faith as they drive to tie and maybe win in Hard rock and it comes up short.

This is the Canes moment.
 
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Make 2025 the year when we stop comparing position groups to discuss the outcome of football games.

I genuinely appreciate the effort, but I cannot stress how irrelevant the match-up of our running backs against their running backs is. They don't play football at the same time.

I understand your premise, you're comparing overall rosters. But again, that's essentially irrelevant. Miami, position by position, was superior to Syracuse. But they had a MASSIVE advantage in what was BY FAR the strength of their team (their passing game) versus what was BY FAR the weakness of Miami's team (the secondary). And that one area of massive strength versus crippling weakness decided the entire football game.

IMO the story of the game will come down to Miami's WR's versus ND's back 7....and Miami's front 7 versus ND's backs. If we can limit Love and the group somewhat, we'll be successful on defense. If we can get open against their secondary, we'll be able to move the ball consistently. Unfortunately, I think ND has the edge in both those spots, but it's not like Miami is totally devoid of advantages. I love our corners against their WRs, especially when you factor in a new QB in a very loud environment and what I feel will be a substantial pass rush. I think we'll be able to run the ball efficiently on anyone we play. We have a very experienced quarterback who ND will not be able to rattle or confuse. And we'll have 70,000 sauced gorillas at full throat, in humidity so thick you can wear it. I love our chances.

But these are 2 good teams. We're home, and they have a QB playing for the first time. I seriously doubt it'll be 41-8, but there's no reason to not get this done.
 
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Strictly comparing position by position I would say ND's only clear advantage is LB and Miami's clear advantage is QB. I would lean ND at RB, WR, and DB - but not worried in the slightest about any of those positions at Miami. You could argue RB is a clear advantage for ND but our room is too loaded for me to classify it as that. I would lean Miami at TE and DE. No idea about DT - I think Miami has the talent advantage at DT but ND has the experience/age advantage.

If Miami stops the run, meaning an area we have a lesser unit (LB) and an unknown (DT) won over the strength of their team, I really don't see how they beat us. A quick start for us and getting the young QB behind, I doubt they would be able to claw back in on the road in that environment. As long as our defense is what I think it is. Respectable and actually somewhat capable of getting a stop.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Make 2025 the year when we stop comparing position groups to discuss the outcome of football games.

I genuinely appreciate the effort, but I cannot stress how irrelevant the match-up of our running backs against their running backs is. They don't play football at the same time.

I understand your premise, you're comparing overall rosters. But again, that's essentially irrelevant. Miami, position by position, was superior to Syracuse. But they had a MASSIVE advantage in what was BY FAR the strength of their team (their passing game) versus what was BY FAR the weakness of Miami's team (the secondary). And that one area of massive strength versus crippling weakness decided the entire football game.

IMO the story of the game will come down to Miami's WR's versus ND's back 7....and Miami's front 7 versus ND's backs. If we can limit Love and the group somewhat, we'll be successful on defense. If we can get open against their secondary, we'll be able to move the ball consistently. Unfortunately, I think ND has the edge in both those spots, but it's not like Miami is totally devoid of advantages. I love our corners against their WRs, especially when you factor in a new QB in a very loud environment and what I feel will be a substantial pass rush. I think we'll be able to run the ball efficiently on anyone we play. We have a very experienced quarterback who ND will not be able to rattle or confuse. And we'll have 70,000 sauced gorillas at full throat, in humidity so thick you can wear it. I love our chances.

But these are 2 good teams. We're home, and they have a QB playing for the first time. I seriously doubt it'll be 41-8, but there's no reason to not get this done.
Click to expand...
Was just about to post this same exact thing. I've never understood the QB matchup analysis. QBs literally never face off. I feel analysis should typically be (with some flexibility depending on matchups):
  • QB/WR/TE vs CB/S
  • OL vs DL/LB
  • RB/TE vs LB/S
  • OC vs DC
 
My feelings are this if the roles were reversed, I would think Miami would have a very difficult time beating Notre Dame, that said we should win this game.
Notre Dame is a good football team, but I think they’re getting way too much credit. I might feel differently if at least they had a returning QB but I think that is going to be their ultimate downfall.
Oh, and I also think people are way, way, way selling Beck short.
 
CreativeCane said:
Was just about to post this same exact thing. I've never understood the QB matchup analysis. QBs literally never face off. I feel analysis should typically be (with some flexibility depending on matchups):
  • QB/WR/TE vs CB/S
  • OL vs DL/LB
  • RB/TE vs LB/S
  • OC vs DC
Click to expand...

Yes, and you can really make it even simpler. Their run game vs our front 7, their pass game vs our back 7, our run game vs their front 7, our pass game vs their back 7. Special teams. Coaching. Intangibles (weather, atmosphere, travel, rest, injuries, etc).
 
QuattroCane said:
My feelings are this if the roles were reversed, I would think Miami would have a very difficult time beating Notre Dame, that said we should win this game.
Notre Dame is a good football team, but I think they’re getting way too much credit. I might feel differently if at least they had a returning QB but I think that is going to be their ultimate downfall.
Oh, and I also think people are way, way, way selling Beck short.
Click to expand...
correct me if I'm wrong, but their QB last year wasn't exactly lighting up the stat line much was he? The team made it to chip without a Cam Ward type back there. Someone mentioned it before, but this will be Miami vs a juiced up version of GT. They don't necessarily need a huge QB contribution imo
 
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Fox305 said:
Unlike the 2017 matchup, this matchup I believe has more irrational variables being discussed negatively against Miami compared to 2017.

The idea that a healthy Carson Beck is somehow lesser of an option than Carr and some other QBs mentioned is laughable. On resume: he is the most experienced and solidified big game QB left in CFB this year. His down years was Levitt/Nussmeier/Sellers best seasons. There isnt a single QB who faced the level of opposition Beck has faced the last 3 years from practice to games.

The reality is on paper these teams are highly identical in how they’ll approach this year and the position by position is a wash.

In my humble opinion, ND has the advantage at:

RB (A+ to Miami A-)
DB (A to Miami A-)
LB (A to Miami B+)
Head coaching.

Miami has the advantage at:
QB (A to likely B)
OL (A+ to A)
DL (A- to B+).

The deciding factors for the game to me are:

Can Greathouse and ND WRs help Carr and can Miami DL get pressure on Carr.

The last great X-factor is Mario. This is his chance to show where he is as a coach and the program is. Miami doesn’t NEED a win, but this game will likely show how we perform this year and whether or not we’ll get to that next level in the immediate future. I think a win here means Miami charges towards 11-1/12-0 and a date in Charlotte. I don’t see Miami winning this game and losing any if not one.

A loss will be a barometer test showing we aren’t “there.” The likelihood is whatever fails us on 8/31 will fail us again during the season.

I think Miami has far more at stake and I don’t see ND with any generational players that can tip the scale dramatically in their favor this night.

If Miami new DC/players are what they are billed, I expect them to really turn up the heat inspired by a Rabid Hard Rock crowd that’s been waiting for this moment. I don’t see Miami losing because they don’t have a choice but to win as far as perception. This is the moment. Miami in 2025 I expect will mimick the 98 Tennessee Vols in that they lose the 1st pick at QB but are sneakily more balance and excel more the following season with an experience guy. (Tee Martin-Carson Beck).

Miami will win 27-17. A late game INT from the new portal additions will seal ND faith as they drive to tie and maybe win in Hard rock and it comes up short.

This is the Canes moment.
Click to expand...
The X factor is the crowd. An inexperienced QB is going to have an extremely tough time dealing with a hostile crowd especially if things don’t go his way immediately. It’s like asking him to play in the middle of a panic attack. The city is going to be absolutely jacked for this game. I expect nothing less than the loudest game ever in the stadium.
 
Very similar teams on paper talent wise with a slight edge to ND.

but I think the QB situation and what will be a huge home field advantage (ironically) will outweigh any talent advantage they may have.

battle tested QB and home field win us this game.
 
EudocimusAlbus said:
correct me if I'm wrong, but their QB last year wasn't exactly lighting up the stat line much was he? The team made it to chip without a Cam Ward type back there. Someone mentioned it before, but this will be Miami vs a juiced up version of GT. They don't necessarily need a huge QB contribution imo
Click to expand...

Leonard was very good. He actually had a higher completion percentage than Cam Ward, albeit in a much shorter passing game. But he was drafted by the NFL, he can play. And most importantly, he was their leading rusher in terms of attempts. He ran the ball 184 times last year and scored 17 touchdowns, the same amount as Jeremiah Love. He was a massive, massive piece of what they did on offense. Carr doesn't run the ball like him, nowhere close. So those 3rd and 4's that were typically Leonard runs...how do they handle those this year?

But let's not make it seem like they made the chip somewhat in spite of spotty QB play. Leonard was very, very valuable for them last year.

14th in QBR in the country last season. Beck was 12th, Nussmeier was 13th, Klubnik 15th, Shedeur Sanders 16th. Those are good college quarterbacks.
 
EudocimusAlbus said:
correct me if I'm wrong, but their QB last year wasn't exactly lighting up the stat line much was he? The team made it to chip without a Cam Ward type back there. Someone mentioned it before, but this will be Miami vs a juiced up version of GT. They don't necessarily need a huge QB contribution imo
Click to expand...
Leonard threw 21 TD passes and had 17 rushing TDs. Thats 5 fewer TDs than Cam accounted for last year. The idea that Leonard is easily replaced is pretty flawed in my opinion. Leonard’s threat as a dynamic runner was a major part of their offensive success. Carr at QB removes that threat and changes their offense. Add the fact that he has no experience, and this is a huge step backward for their offense, especially in game 1.
 
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JayCane20 said:
Strictly comparing position by position I would say ND's only clear advantage is LB and Miami's clear advantage is QB. I would lean ND at RB, WR, and DB - but not worried in the slightest about any of those positions at Miami. You could argue RB is a clear advantage for ND but our room is too loaded for me to classify it as that. I would lean Miami at TE and DE. No idea about DT - I think Miami has the talent advantage at DT but ND has the experience/age advantage.

If Miami stops the run, meaning an area we have a lesser unit (LB) and an unknown (DT) won over the strength of their team, I really don't see how they beat us. A quick start for us and getting the young QB behind, I doubt they would be able to claw back in on the road in that environment. As long as our defense is what I think it is. Respectable and actually somewhat capable of getting a stop.
Click to expand...
blink twice if youve been kidnapped. This is way too positive a post from you lol
 
Fox305 said:
Unlike the 2017 matchup, this matchup I believe has more irrational variables being discussed negatively against Miami compared to 2017.

The idea that a healthy Carson Beck is somehow lesser of an option than Carr and some other QBs mentioned is laughable. On resume: he is the most experienced and solidified big game QB left in CFB this year. His down years was Levitt/Nussmeier/Sellers best seasons. There isnt a single QB who faced the level of opposition Beck has faced the last 3 years from practice to games.

The reality is on paper these teams are highly identical in how they’ll approach this year and the position by position is a wash.

In my humble opinion, ND has the advantage at:

RB (A+ to Miami A-)
DB (A to Miami A-)
LB (A to Miami B+)
Head coaching.

Miami has the advantage at:
QB (A to likely B)
OL (A+ to A)
DL (A- to B+).

The deciding factors for the game to me are:

Can Greathouse and ND WRs help Carr and can Miami DL get pressure on Carr.

The last great X-factor is Mario. This is his chance to show where he is as a coach and the program is. Miami doesn’t NEED a win, but this game will likely show how we perform this year and whether or not we’ll get to that next level in the immediate future. I think a win here means Miami charges towards 11-1/12-0 and a date in Charlotte. I don’t see Miami winning this game and losing any if not one.

A loss will be a barometer test showing we aren’t “there.” The likelihood is whatever fails us on 8/31 will fail us again during the season.

I think Miami has far more at stake and I don’t see ND with any generational players that can tip the scale dramatically in their favor this night.

If Miami new DC/players are what they are billed, I expect them to really turn up the heat inspired by a Rabid Hard Rock crowd that’s been waiting for this moment. I don’t see Miami losing because they don’t have a choice but to win as far as perception. This is the moment. Miami in 2025 I expect will mimick the 98 Tennessee Vols in that they lose the 1st pick at QB but are sneakily more balance and excel more the following season with an experience guy. (Tee Martin-Carson Beck).

Miami will win 27-17. A late game INT from the new portal additions will seal ND faith as they drive to tie and maybe win in Hard rock and it comes up short.

This is the Canes moment.
Click to expand...
IMG_20231104_070059.jpg
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Leonard was very good. He actually had a higher completion percentage than Cam Ward, albeit in a much shorter passing game. But he was drafted by the NFL, he can play. And most importantly, he was their leading rusher in terms of attempts. He ran the ball 184 times last year and scored 17 touchdowns, the same amount as Jeremiah Love. He was a massive, massive piece of what they did on offense. Carr doesn't run the ball like him, nowhere close. So those 3rd and 4's that were typically Leonard runs...how do they handle those this year?

But let's not make it seem like they made the chip somewhat in spite of spotty QB play. Leonard was very, very valuable for them last year.

14th in QBR in the country last season. Beck was 12th, Nussmeier was 13th, Klubnik 15th, Shedeur Sanders 16th. Those are good college quarterbacks.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the break down, I guess I only watched a couple of ND games this past season, and was comparing him to the licknut who ran all over us at GT with some clutch touch passing sprinkled in. Didn't realize he ran for as many attempts as Love, that's difficult to replace.

I keep thinking Car won't be in full time. He may start but seeing as though having a mobile QB was clutch to the offense, it doesn't make much sense.
 
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