Poptimus
Senior
- Joined
- Nov 4, 2017
- Messages
- 4,606
I thought it'd be worthwhile to breakdown our game's spread and read the tea leaves. Is it about gambling? Yes, but it also inherently tells us when we should expect to win or be concerned. I'm not going to focus on totals because the line moves aren't as sharp as moves on sides. Context is important; last week someone thought the point spread against F$U didn't matter because, hey, we were once favored by -18.5 vs. GT. That means nothing without knowing the direction the line moved. I'm only going to focus on lines from Pinnacle.
How have the sharps fared on our games this season thus far?
vs. Florida: opened +7.5, closed +7, lost by 4. Sharps won.
vs. UNC: opened -6, closed -5, lost by 3. Sharps won.
vs. Bethune: opened and closed -41.5. Sharps didn't bet the game and, why not, it was Bethune. Probably had low limits.
vs. Central Michigan: opened -30, closed -30.5, won by 5. Sharps lost badly.
vs. VT: opened -13, closed -14, lost by 7. Sharps lost badly. But the warning signs were there. The ML dropped from -637 to a close of -595 and the juice on +14 rose on VT late. Late money was right, however.
vs. UVA: opened -1.5, closed -2.5, won by 8. Sharps won.
vs. GT: opened -19, closed -18, lost by 7. Mixed here because late money was on Miami to get the close to -18 -115 and it was an outright loss. Let's call this a loss by the sharps since the ML and spread rose late and I want to err on the side of being conservative with this analysis rather than puff or inflate the numbers.
vs. Pitt: opened +5.5, closed +4.5, won by 5. Sharps won.
vs. F$U: opened +4.5, closed +3, won by 17. Sharps won.
Total: 5-3 ignoring Bethune that didn't move and including GT and VT as games sharps lost when it was more of a mixed bag and not a game the tea leaves would have clearly suggested there was a sharp consensus; some sharps clearly won those games.
vs. Louisville: opened -5, sitting at -6.5 now, linear movement. So far so good, we should feel very good about the game, but it is still two days away to keep monitoring the movement up until kickoff. If we get to -7, we're good. If we see a reversal, it'll be cause for concern:
How have the sharps fared on our games this season thus far?
vs. Florida: opened +7.5, closed +7, lost by 4. Sharps won.
vs. UNC: opened -6, closed -5, lost by 3. Sharps won.
vs. Bethune: opened and closed -41.5. Sharps didn't bet the game and, why not, it was Bethune. Probably had low limits.
vs. Central Michigan: opened -30, closed -30.5, won by 5. Sharps lost badly.
vs. VT: opened -13, closed -14, lost by 7. Sharps lost badly. But the warning signs were there. The ML dropped from -637 to a close of -595 and the juice on +14 rose on VT late. Late money was right, however.
vs. UVA: opened -1.5, closed -2.5, won by 8. Sharps won.
vs. GT: opened -19, closed -18, lost by 7. Mixed here because late money was on Miami to get the close to -18 -115 and it was an outright loss. Let's call this a loss by the sharps since the ML and spread rose late and I want to err on the side of being conservative with this analysis rather than puff or inflate the numbers.
vs. Pitt: opened +5.5, closed +4.5, won by 5. Sharps won.
vs. F$U: opened +4.5, closed +3, won by 17. Sharps won.
Total: 5-3 ignoring Bethune that didn't move and including GT and VT as games sharps lost when it was more of a mixed bag and not a game the tea leaves would have clearly suggested there was a sharp consensus; some sharps clearly won those games.
vs. Louisville: opened -5, sitting at -6.5 now, linear movement. So far so good, we should feel very good about the game, but it is still two days away to keep monitoring the movement up until kickoff. If we get to -7, we're good. If we see a reversal, it'll be cause for concern: