Miami/Louisville - in-depth point spread discussion

Poptimus

Senior
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
2,553
I thought it'd be worthwhile to breakdown our game's spread and read the tea leaves. Is it about gambling? Yes, but it also inherently tells us when we should expect to win or be concerned. I'm not going to focus on totals because the line moves aren't as sharp as moves on sides. Context is important; last week someone thought the point spread against F$U didn't matter because, hey, we were once favored by -18.5 vs. GT. That means nothing without knowing the direction the line moved. I'm only going to focus on lines from Pinnacle.

How have the sharps fared on our games this season thus far?

vs. Florida: opened +7.5, closed +7, lost by 4. Sharps won.
vs. UNC: opened -6, closed -5, lost by 3. Sharps won.
vs. Bethune: opened and closed -41.5. Sharps didn't bet the game and, why not, it was Bethune. Probably had low limits.
vs. Central Michigan: opened -30, closed -30.5, won by 5. Sharps lost badly.
vs. VT: opened -13, closed -14, lost by 7. Sharps lost badly. But the warning signs were there. The ML dropped from -637 to a close of -595 and the juice on +14 rose on VT late. Late money was right, however.
vs. UVA: opened -1.5, closed -2.5, won by 8. Sharps won.
vs. GT: opened -19, closed -18, lost by 7. Mixed here because late money was on Miami to get the close to -18 -115 and it was an outright loss. Let's call this a loss by the sharps since the ML and spread rose late and I want to err on the side of being conservative with this analysis rather than puff or inflate the numbers.
vs. Pitt: opened +5.5, closed +4.5, won by 5. Sharps won.
vs. F$U: opened +4.5, closed +3, won by 17. Sharps won.

Total: 5-3 ignoring Bethune that didn't move and including GT and VT as games sharps lost when it was more of a mixed bag and not a game the tea leaves would have clearly suggested there was a sharp consensus; some sharps clearly won those games.

vs. Louisville: opened -5, sitting at -6.5 now, linear movement. So far so good, we should feel very good about the game, but it is still two days away to keep monitoring the movement up until kickoff. If we get to -7, we're good. If we see a reversal, it'll be cause for concern:

earlyspread.png


recentspread.png
 

MIA42178

All-ACC
Joined
Nov 3, 2011
Messages
7,975
Don’t know till closer to game where big money is flowing

Those three CMU, VT, GT. Injured QB, injured QB, no one predicts ST to give away 16 points. And didn’t GT open -16?
 

Poptimus

Senior
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
2,553
Don’t know till closer to game where big money is flowing

Those three CMU, VT, GT. Injured QB, injured QB, no one predicts ST to give away 16 points. And didn’t GT open -16?
May have been -16 elsewhere, but not at Pinnacle. I just tried to keep it consistent using the same source for all lines.
 

Sebastianbird

Banned
Banned
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Nov 7, 2019
Messages
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I thought it'd be worthwhile to breakdown our game's spread and read the tea leaves. Is it about gambling? Yes, but it also inherently tells us when we should expect to win or be concerned. I'm not going to focus on totals because the line moves aren't as sharp as moves on sides. Context is important; last week someone thought the point spread against F$U didn't matter because, hey, we were once favored by -18.5 vs. GT. That means nothing without knowing the direction the line moved. I'm only going to focus on lines from Pinnacle.

How have the sharps fared on our games this season thus far?

vs. Florida: opened +7.5, closed +7, lost by 4. Sharps won.
vs. UNC: opened -6, closed -5, lost by 3. Sharps won.
vs. Bethune: opened and closed -41.5. Sharps didn't bet the game and, why not, it was Bethune. Probably had low limits.
vs. Central Michigan: opened -30, closed -30.5, won by 5. Sharps lost badly.
vs. VT: opened -13, closed -14, lost by 7. Sharps lost badly. But the warning signs were there. The ML dropped from -637 to a close of -595 and the juice on +14 rose on VT late. Late money was right, however.
vs. UVA: opened -1.5, closed -2.5, won by 8. Sharps won.
vs. GT: opened -19, closed -18, lost by 7. Mixed here because late money was on Miami to get the close to -18 -115 and it was an outright loss. Let's call this a loss by the sharps since the ML and spread rose late and I want to err on the side of being conservative with this analysis rather than puff or inflate the numbers.
vs. Pitt: opened +5.5, closed +4.5, won by 5. Sharps won.
vs. F$U: opened +4.5, closed +3, won by 17. Sharps won.

Total: 5-3 ignoring Bethune that didn't move and including GT and VT as games sharps lost when it was more of a mixed bag and not a game the tea leaves would have clearly suggested there was a sharp consensus; some sharps clearly won those games.

vs. Louisville: opened -5, sitting at -6.5 now, linear movement. So far so good, we should feel very good about the game, but it is still two days away to keep monitoring the movement up until kickoff. If we get to -7, we're good. If we see a reversal, it'll be cause for concern:

View attachment 101305

View attachment 101306
Actually the sharps lost on the UF game. The sharps were all over the Gaytors in that
game. The squares were about evenly split.

Sharps won and squares lost in the UVA game.
 

Poptimus

Senior
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
2,553
Actually the sharps lost on the UF game. The sharps were all over the Gaytors in that
game. The squares were about evenly split.

Sharps won and squares lost in the UVA game.
Here's what I see for the day of the game (there was little movement after this screenshot with the juice and closed UF -7 -108). The moneyline was mostly linear in UF's favor, and the sharp's were right about that. But from an initial line of UF -7.5 and a day-of-the-game line of UF -7.5 that closed -7, I still contend sharps were on Miami on the spread, but not the ML and were thus right on both counts.

um-uf.png
 

CAT5Coming

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Apr 5, 2016
Messages
356
Bill Connelly's SP+ has us winning by 11.3 with a 73% probability. This is as good of a predictive indicator as exists. Good luck fellas.

EIsIja5WsAAkADg.jpg
 

Poptimus

Senior
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
2,553
Good late line movement, we should feel confident we win today. Nice late bounce back in our favor, ML rose from -242 to close -262:

a.png
 
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