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Miami -14.5 vs Louisville

I’ll say if the drop back Miller Moss 48 and 51 times like the last two games they will get absolutely destroyed. They’re going to have to be more balanced.
 
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This is a 4 loss Louisville team. Brohm has done well, but this is an absolute mack truck he’s about to face.
I can see them trying to get the rbs more involved in the passing game, but they won’t be able to stand up to our 5 man pressure.

Oline is going to wear them down and I expect Fletcher/Brown to have a big game.

Early prediction - 45-17
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
This team overall is much better than 2024, but this is basically the same exact script as we had against VT.

Last year, we won the first 4 games easily, we were humming, and we went into a Friday night home game as a massive favorite. I think we were -19 in that game? And we all know how it went.

Here we go again, rolling along, 2 TD favorite, home game on a Friday night. What could go wrong?

I will say, last year, neither team had a bye before that game. We both played on 6 days rest/prep. This year, we should be more prepared for them, having 13 days. But they had a bye too.

Also, it's Year 3 there for Brohm. He's coached in 32 games there, this will be game #33 for him.

In the first 32, they've lost exactly *one* by more than 14 points. Year 1, at Pitt, 38-21. That's it. Every other game has been 14 or less.

And if you look at just the last 2 years, he's 13-5, and the 5 losses are by:

7 to ND
7 to SMU
7 to Miami
3 to Stanford
3 to UVA

If we do cover this game, IMO it'll likely be our most impressive performance to date.
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Why I do not get this blowout discussion again. UM has to show they can close in the fourth before I think we win by 2 scores against a real playcaller
 
QuattroCane said:
I’ll say this much. If we can’t throughly beat a team that struggled vs JMU at home when we’re undefeated, and have everything to play for then we haven’t made much progress as a program.
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Can’t wait to see these types of posters that won’t be happy unless we beat them by 50.

Win the game. Don’t get anyone hurt, and move on. Style points don’t matter.

If you can’t see how going from compete irrelevance to a team widely considered a natty contender, I don’t know what to tell you.
 
Jonnyblaze said:
Can’t wait to see these types of posters that won’t be happy unless we beat them by 50.

Win the game. Don’t get anyone hurt, and move on. Style points don’t matter.

If you can’t see how going from compete irrelevance to a team widely considered a natty contender, I don’t know what to tell you.
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Style points matter a ton, what are you talking about.
 
I feel really good about our DL vs their OL, but if Moss gets time...it could get interesting.

On the other side of the ball, their defense has been pretty decent. They like to blitz, so I see plenty of opportunities in the run game their, and as soon as they cheat and try to stop the run, I see a few big plays downfield.
 
Jonnyblaze said:
Can’t wait to see these types of posters that won’t be happy unless we beat them by 50.

Win the game. Don’t get anyone hurt, and move on. Style points don’t matter.

If you can’t see how going from compete irrelevance to a team widely considered a natty contender, I don’t know what to tell you.
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Style points absolutely matter, many are already starting the playoff politicking and if you think struggling with ACC teams is gonna be impressive, dont complain when we get lapped or drop a game because we start out hot and then take foot off gas ala Syracuse last year.
 
QuattroCane said:
I’ll say this much. If we can’t throughly beat a team that struggled vs JMU at home when we’re undefeated, and have everything to play for then we haven’t made much progress as a program.
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Football doesn't work like this.

FSU beat Alabama. We wiped the floor with FSU. If we played Alabama tomorrow, you think we're up 28-3 at the end of the 3rd quarter? We should be, right? Since we were against FSU and they're better than Alabama?

We're all better than this, gentlemen. This is like "I was dropped on Earth yesterday and like the football" analysis.

Now, I will say, we're a 14 point favorite for a reason. We're a better team. So, you're right, we shouldn't struggle with Louisville. But it's college football.

CIS's darling, Lane Kiffin, struggled mightily on Saturday to beat a team that lost by 49 (!!) to North Texas. Are we saying they (Ole Miss) haven't made any progress as a program? Because of the result against Washington State, are we saying they have no chance in Athens on Saturday?

Just win the **** game. If we cover, I'll be seriously impressed. But just win.
 
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Just win. I would love to see them cover and win by 14 or more, but......maybe it's PTSD, but I've seen too much of Brohm already. I know, I know, different players and different coaches.
 
rascon said:
This is a 4 loss Louisville team. Brohm has done well, but this is an absolute mack truck he’s about to face.
I can see them trying to get the rbs more involved in the passing game, but they won’t be able to stand up to our 5 man pressure.

Oline is going to wear them down and I expect Fletcher/Brown to have a big game.

Early prediction - 45-17
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Eh, you all are sleeping on UL, imo. I think people are paying too much attention to all the PFF grades.

They are a few plays away from being 5-0. Would you be saying those things had they beaten UVA?

They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. They have a great shot as anyone else to make the ACCCG, imo.
 
AUcane said:
Eh, you all are sleeping on UL, imo. I think people are paying too much attention to all the PFF grades.

They are a few plays away from being 5-0. Would you be saying those things had they beaten UVA?

They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. They have a great shot as anyone else to make the ACCCG, imo.
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They're a few plays away from being 2-3, also. Pitt had the ball in Louisville territory, up by 7, in the 4th quarter. Louisville won the game.

James Madison had the ball, in a 14-14 game, in the 4th quarter. They gave up a defensive score, and lost the game 28-14.

Both those games could've easily gone the other way.

I'm with you for the most part, I think they're decent. They definitely should've won the UVA game and they very well could be 5-0. But their offense stinks, by every single metric. It's not good. Maybe it's because the backs have been banged up, maybe it's because Moss took a while to get up to speed. Or maybe because they're not very good.

If we play close to our best, we win by more than a score. But it's college football and Brohm is a good coach. If we come out slow and keep them in the game early, it could very well be a sweat job. We are a considerably better team, however.
 
2023- Louisville scored 38 points
2024- Louisville scored 45 points
I apologize if this was already posted.
This will be the best defense they meet this year.
Go canes
 
Another key will be dealing with Chris Bell. They target him nearly 30% of the time they throw, which is 2nd amongst ACC WRs (Toney is 3rd ~27%). I expect us to try to bracket him with Thomas underneath like we did against Robinson a couple of weeks ago. We just missed getting 2 TOs (the just missed pick 6 and the fumble Thomas forced before half) and an OPI out of that coverage. Lucas, when matched up, has to give less of a cushion over the top though.
 
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flips said:
Another key will be dealing with Chris Bell. They target him nearly 30% of the time they throw, which is 2nd amongst ACC WRs (Toney is 3rd ~27%). I expect us to try to bracket him with Thomas underneath like we did against Robinson a couple of weeks ago. We just missed getting 2 TOs (the just missed pick 6 and the fumble Thomas forced before half) and an OPI out of that coverage. Lucas, when matched up, has to give less of a cushion over the top though.
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They have weapons. That's the weird part. They have really solid skill players. I just think they have a genuinely awful offensive line. Like, one of the worst in the entire country bad. I just don't see us losing to a team like that. We should completely overwhelm their front on **** near every snap.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
They have weapons. That's the weird part. They have really solid skill players. I just think they have a genuinely awful offensive line. Like, one of the worst in the entire country bad. I just don't see us losing to a team like that. We should completely overwhelm their front on **** near every snap.
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I'm going into the game assuming their OL plays a lot better, coming off a bye and getting the LT back, and they get better RB play since all 3 guys have been injured and have had a week to rest

There's almost no way the game will be competitive unless their OL plays a lot better. I think they play K. Brown more as their backup running back, rather than Duke Watson. He gives them more size to test us inside (big pause), and Watson has been awful this year.

Keionte Scott against Lacy in the slot a big matchup too, which favors us
 
flips said:
I'm going into the game assuming their OL plays a lot better, coming off a bye and getting the LT back, and they get better RB play since all 3 guys have been injured and have had a week to rest

There's almost no way the game will be competitive unless their OL plays a lot better. I think they play K. Brown more as their backup running back, rather than Duke Watson. He gives them more size to test us inside (big pause), and Watson has been awful this year.

Keionte Scott against Lacy in the slot a big matchup too, which favors us
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Their OL is going to have to play their best game of the season to even keep this game close.

They are 74th in EPA/play on offense.
56th in success rate
60th in EPA/rush
81st in EPA/dropback
127th in the country in yards per carry
123rd in the country in sacks allowed per game

That's really, really bad. I respect Brohm and like i said, they have individual talent, but collectively they've been genuinely awful. If we give up close to 30 points I'm going to be incredibly disappointed, provided we don't gift them anything.
 
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