Chad Thomas and even McDermott improved their draft stock. Thomas was stout and consistent all season, and continued to build upon a solid 2016 season. McDermott's pass protection from the LT spot looked improved from last season, and he showed scouts OT is his best position. Darling, on the other hand, just continued to put out more bad tape of himself getting penalized, making mental errors, and falling on his *** while overreaching on his blocks. But then again, Darling wasn't going anywhere based on last season's film either.
The scenario being discussed for McIntosh is a 3 round jump - going from a 4th/5th, to a 1st/2nd.
Do you think Thomas or McDermott's Senior years moved them from a 6th/7th, to a 3rd/4th? I don't think so. IMO - their Senior seasons may have increased their draft stock, but not significantly. They were both solid this year, but neither made a leap. And that's more of the norm than having a huge Senior year.
I just think most fans think in terms of "why go now and be a 5th vs. come back and be 1st"? When the more likely scenario is "Go now and be a 4th, or come back and be a 3rd".
In both players' cases, yes.
McDermott came back, started every game at LT, and was named third team All-ACC. Now Walter's has him going in rounds 5-7 and NFL Draft Scout projects him as a 4th round pick. Had McDermott left after last season, he likely would not have been drafted at all considering his subpar play at guard last season and the fact he did not show up on Walters or any other ranking I could find for the 2017 Draft (which generally means a player is not draftable in their estimation). Walters presently has McDermott ranked as the No. 26 OT/OG for the 2018 draft.
I think Chad Thomas probably would have been drafted last season had he gone pro. But he came back and had another solid season at DE and was far more consistent than last year. Walters presently has him going in rounds 3-4 of the 2018 draft, and NFL Draft Scout has him going in round 3. And DraftTek has him as the No. 99 overall player and No. 13 DE. By comparison, Tony Pauline of DraftInsider rated Chad Thomas as a "late round pick" for the 2017 Draft this time last year. Walters currently has Major Nine at 13 for the 2018 draft. Matt Miller (Bleacher Report) did not have Chad Thomas in his top 30 defensive lineman last December (or his top 41 edge rushers).
Short version: McDermott went from perceived undraftable to late-round pick in a year. And Chad Thomas went from a perceived "late-round pick" (at best) to a consensus 3-4 round pick.
Great points, and I could totally be wrong. I just think fans point to the most positive outcome as the likely outcome, instead of just being a possibility.
Take Chad Thomas and Walter Football for example. You could say Walters has him as a 3rd-4th round pick. I could say they predict he'll be a 5th round pick (they don't have him in their 4 round mock), and think his draft grades will be all over the place. And we'd both be right. We could look at the same source and get 2 different opinions
Walters evaluation of Thomas:
12/16/17: Thomas has 30 tackles with 8.5 for a loss and 3.5 sacks in 2017. Sources tell me that Thomas is really talented physically, but he hasn't put it all together on the field. There are flashes of excellence and stretches of doing nothing while looking clueless. They say that Thomas lacks instincts as well. However because of his great skill set, grades are going to be all over the board on Thomas.
9/1/17: Thomas has flashed at times for Miami over the past couple of seasons. In 2016, he collected 37 tackles with 11 for a loss, four sacks and three passes broken up. He had 18 tackles with a sack, four passes batted and one forced fumble in 2015.
The stats and general evaluation look pretty much the same after his Senior and Junior years. Walters seems to be saying - I'm giving him a 3rd-4th round grade, I'm predicting he won't be drafted in the first 4 rounds, and I think his draft grades will be all over the place.
Chad Thomas, DE, Miami
Sources tell me that the 6-foot-6, 265-pound Thomas is really talented physically and that his draft grade is going to be all over the place. Some scouts and teams will fall in love with Thomas' skill set, while others will knock him for not producing up to it. In 2017, Thomas has 30 tackles with 8.5 tackles for a loss and 3.5 sacks. Scouts say there are flashes of excellence and stretches of doing nothing while looking clueless. They believe that Thomas lacks instincts as well. However because of his great skill set, grades are going to be all over the board on Thomas with some high and some low. Thomas is on the rise and could end up being a pick on Day 2 of the 2018 NFL Draft.
And they projected him to go in the 2nd round in their mock.
Is that from Draftek? They have him rated as the 99th overall prospect (Early 4th round), but put him as the
#49 overall mid 2nd round in their mock. So are they saying he's a 2nd or a 4th?
CBS doesn't have Chad in their top 120 players and Draftwire doesn't have him in their 4 round mock. Like the scouting report says, his grades are all over the place.
That's why turning pro can be such a difficult decision. The draft is so inexact. You can come away with different info from the same source.
If at this time lat year:
- I said Elder is a 5th, Kaaya is a 6th, Coley is a 7th, and Yearby won't even get invited to the combine - you'd say I was an idiot and a negative a-hole.
- On the flip side, if I said Jenkins is a 4th, and AQM/Marquez Williams/Adrian Colbert will all get drafted - you'd say I was an idiot and a homer.
Look at this year:
- Walton, Herndon, Delaney were expected to ball out and improve their draft stock. All had injuries, and didn't have the year they were hoping for.
- On the flip side, Berrios/Jackson/Jaquan had big years and leaps in their draft stock.
For every positive mock draft, there's probably a negative. Every player probably expects to have a big year, and about half actually do.
I would personally advise McIntosh to come back, but would not fault him at all if he left.
