mossmadness
"Couldn't" Care Less.
- Joined
- Nov 3, 2011
- Messages
- 5,582
The landscape has changed and the statistics mean nothing.
There is a 12 team playoff now. Just get hot and sneak in and you have a chance at a Championship.
That is a new variable that has to be accounted for.
Expanded playoffs make it less likely that the elite powers won’t win.
The easiest way to win is if you just have to do it one time.
The more plays that are run, the more the sample size grows, the less likely an upset is.
Michigan finally one a national title in a year where UGA was left out, a 3* team was in, and Bama had a QB and OL that largely leveled the playing field. Now imagine they have to get through UGA running into UGA’s defensive box and going 3-15 on third down.
Washington’s best chance to win a title was to just have to play one team, and pull off the upset. But instead they had to punch above their recruiting weight twice and couldn’t do it.
Michigan was the same thing, and that’s all they had to do. Punch above their recruiting weight once, and then just get past a 3* team and the title was their’s.
You aren’t going to have that kind of path in an expanded playoff.