Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review

[mossmadness]

The landscape has changed and the statistics mean nothing.

There is a 12 team playoff now. Just get hot and sneak in and you have a chance at a Championship.

That is a new variable that has to be accounted for.

Expanded playoffs make it less likely that the elite powers won’t win.

The easiest way to win is if you just have to do it one time.

The more plays that are run, the more the sample size grows, the less likely an upset is.

Michigan finally one a national title in a year where UGA was left out, a 3* team was in, and Bama had a QB and OL that largely leveled the playing field. Now imagine they have to get through UGA running into UGA’s defensive box and going 3-15 on third down.

Washington’s best chance to win a title was to just have to play one team, and pull off the upset. But instead they had to punch above their recruiting weight twice and couldn’t do it.

Michigan was the same thing, and that’s all they had to do. Punch above their recruiting weight once, and then just get past a 3* team and the title was their’s.

You aren’t going to have that kind of path in an expanded playoff.

 

[jakeman1]

There is no way Miami's fanbase would have tolerated the middle years in Harbaugh's time at Michigan. He started strong, cratered, getting hammered by OSU, Wisconsin along the way.

The main thing that seems to run through all the examples was most had very strong QB play. It doesn't excuse the bonehead gameday issues, but it sure can cover up the flaws. You don't have to be a genius if the offense is putting games out of reach.

 

[IbzRlz]

It took Butch Davis 6 years to build our last championship team

Butch Davis had to overcome probation and didn't have all the monetary resources Mario has, and didn't have the portal either

 

[TriStarCane]

I’ll make it even easier. If you want to go back to the first season after WW2, 6 coaches have won a national champion after a losing record in their first 2 seasons.

- Jordan with Auburn in 1957
- Dietzel with LSU in 1958
- Schwartzwalder with Syracuse in 1959
- McKay with USC in 1962 (won a few)
- Ross and McCartney split in 1990 at GT and Colorado respectively; both had losing records their first two seasons

So that’s 4 coaches that did it before integration and all 6 of them did it before the scholarship max was reduced to 85 (‘92).

That’s for my sample size people. He will have to do something that has only been done 6 times in 79 seasons and hasn’t been done in 34 years.

 

[Schnelly'sPipe]

I read the whole thing, thank you for putting it together @TriStarCane
I hate reading as much as I want Mario to be successful but the proof is in the pudding

The odds of Mario steering this ship to a Natty is slim and would be unprecedented
Without a true leader with grit at the QB position it will be impossible to obtain so while he has wisely and successfully started heavy crootin the trenches on both sides of the ball it will ultimately come down to him landing the IT FACTOR QB who comes in dominates and leaves a good taste in our mouths for future stud QB's to follow suit creating a dynasty

I am on the patient side with Mario going into year 3 though its been 20+ years of irrelevance that he had no control over
Time stops for no one and the clock in Miami is a time bomb
Something has got to give

Bump

- Mario got his true leader with grit at the helm now..

The sky is the limit!

 

[Ispyin]

I mean **** Mike Farrell but jot a list you want to be on let alone be at the top


Fix this or ultimately fail Mario

https://mikefarrellsports.com/college/mario-cristobal-james-franklin-and-the-coaches-with-the-worst-gameday-reputations

 

[Colombie]

Expanded playoffs make it less likely that the elite powers won’t win.

The easiest way to win is if you just have to do it one time.

The more plays that are run, the more the sample size grows, the less likely an upset is.

Michigan finally one a national title in a year where UGA was left out, a 3* team was in, and Bama had a QB and OL that largely leveled the playing field. Now imagine they have to get through UGA running into UGA’s defensive box and going 3-15 on third down.

Washington’s best chance to win a title was to just have to play one team, and pull off the upset. But instead they had to punch above their recruiting weight twice and couldn’t do it.

Michigan was the same thing, and that’s all they had to do. Punch above their recruiting weight once, and then just get past a 3* team and the title was their’s.

You aren’t going to have that kind of path in an expanded playoff.

This makes no sense.
All you have to do now is make the tournament. You can have a couple losses or even three.
The more chances you have the more likely you can win. It is simple.

 

[mossmadness]

This makes no sense.
All you have to do now is make the tournament. You can have a couple losses or even three.
The more chances you have the more likely you can win. It is simple.

Yes, making the tourney is easier.

Winning it now isn’t due to the number of elite teams that will get in.

College football is not a history of Cinderellas. It’s a history dominant teams, dominating.

Your best chance to win a championship if you weren’t those teams, was to avoid them all together (84 BYU).

The more of them you have to go through, the less likely your chances.

People arguing “just get hot” watch too much college basketball.

 

[Golsen82]

Mario on the hot seat this year? I seen that somewhere. Find it hard to believe he'd be let go so soon