forums

Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review

aelmiami said:
Just for comparison’s sake here is Mario’s Oregon numbers.

21-65-329%12-0
(2-1)*		11-14

I’m fully aware Herbert was his QB before everyone starts in on me. This is not to say Mario hasn’t been an abject failure up to this point here. This just makes me question what is Mario’s baseline? Is it Oregon or here? Mario has had just about everything that can go wrong, go wrong here. Much of it self inflicted.

Maybe he’s pressing being titled the savior of his beloved Alma Mater. I don’t know and honestly it doesn’t matter. Does he have the wherewithal to recognize the failures and fix them? Thats what good coaches do. If it’s the same bs next season he’s beyond cooked here.

*Bowl Game loss came after Taggart took the FSU job.
Click to expand...
Another example with Coach Richt at Miami:

19-73-323%1*1-114-12

I think the biggest reason Mario should be getting more done is the ACC is the easiest conference to be getting this done. Looking at Mario, Richt, Dabo, and Jimbo the ACC has the least amount of games vs ranked opponents. That 12-13 record is an even bigger eyesore knowing how down the ACC is compared to the Big 10 and SEC.

But like others have said, we need to worry about 9 games or winning the ACC before we can even think about playoffs.
 
Advertisement
TriStarCane said:
Might be too reductive. There are 16 coaches in this data set across 14 programs. Some of them had elite QBs. Some didn’t. They all succeeded at their primary responsibility within 24 months of starting
Click to expand...

I would start a little sooner but I am much more confident that the 24 months thing suggests "We can be **** sure this guy isn't Saban or Urban Meyer" than I am that it means "this guy can't win a title."

08 - Urban + stacked roster
09 - Saban + stacked roster
10 - all-world QB all-time carry job (Chizik never replicates success)
11 - Saban + stacked roster
12 - Saban + stacked roster
13 - all-world QB + stacked roster (Jimbo never replicates success)
14 - Urban + stacked roster
15 - Saban +stacked roster
16 - Dabo + all-world QB
17 - Saban + stacked roster
18 - Dabo + all-world QB
19 - all-world QB + stacked roster (Orgeron never replicates success)
20 - Saban + stacked roster
21 - Kirby + stacked roster
22 - Kirby + stacked roster
23 - Harbaugh


For the purple guys I don't think the 24 month tea leaves thing has much to do with what is going on there, and low key I am not sure how much better Dabo is than Mario rosters being equal, Dabo is probably better at not hiring trash OCs and at calling timeouts.

Hopefully the Canes get an all-world QB and we can test this theory.
 
hurricaneman said:
I also find it funny that of that list of 16 people like half of them ended up getting fired. It's really only Saban, Urban, Smart, and Dabo that have had prolonged success.
Click to expand...
Now that Saban is gone and Harbaugh probably is to, here's the list of coaches that have won NC:

Kirby Smart
Dabo Swinney















End list
 
Advertisement
Detractors will always look for ways to justify, excuse, rationalize, evade truths, while gaslighting anyone who listen to them by inserting data, talking points that take away from the real issue at hand.

@TriStarCane, great analysis. Myself, along w/ @mcnaire2004 have drummed home this point. I first mentioned this awhile ago that building a championship team w/in a 5 yr window is not only archaic, but it’s rare throughout the history of CFB. I went all the way back to the 1900’s to show that the vast majority of championship coaches (& vast doesn’t really do justice to this stat) have their teams up and running no later than year 3, most by year 2, but no later than year 3.

I’ve seen several detractors used terms like nuanced or variables, to disregard the data presented. OK that’s fine, b/c we all “know” Miami can’t compete with big boy schools. We also know this ain’t the same Miami of the 80’s, where recruiting and innovations were kept lock-in-key w/o the internet age.

So @TriStarCane @mcnaire2004 let’s stop using other school’s records, or past coaches from said schools. Let’s just use 2007 Miami vs. Mario currently.

Let’s examine the variables of his predecessors, u know, to add CIS’s favorite word, “context”:

1. Mario is making
-Approx. 8x more than Randy Shannon/yr,
-4x more than Golden/yr
-2x more than Richt/yr
-2.5x more than Diaz/yr.

2. Mario is coaching in the NIL era, an era in which the U has become the poster child of this era

3. Mario’s AD is one who has a Nat’l Title as an Assoc. AD, & Two Nat’l Titles as an AD all from P5 programs.
-Shannon’s AD came from The MAC, where his teams went 19-18 during his tenure & he may or may not have been involved w/ Nevin Shapiro.

-Golden’s AD were Eichorst (who was here for a sip of coffee b4 bailing to Nebraska in which he was fired for woeful results), & Blake James (a glorified fund raiser who came from The Univ. of Maine, where he specialized in their hockey program)

-Richt’s AD was the aforementioned Blake James

-Manny’s AD was the aforementioned Blake James

4. Shannon took over Miami after the FIU brawl, & from 2004-2006, Miami went 25-12 (.675)

Golden took over Miami during the most modern day salacious scandal to hit CFB sports, & from 2007-2010 Miami went 28-22 (.560)

Richt took over Miami shortly after the cloud, and during the insubordination period of Golden, after the most egregious home lost in program history took place in 2015. From 2011-2015, Miami went 36-27 (.571)

Diaz took over Miami after Richt stabilized Miami, but had health & coaching issues in his last season. Nevertheless, he inherited a program from 2016-2018 that went 26-13 (.666)

Mario took over Miami after Diaz, & while Diaz was a chump of a coach who had no business here, didn’t have controversy surrounding him or the program, & from 2019-2021 went 21-15 (.583)

5. Only Richt & Cristobal on this “who’s who” of coaching list had previous P5 HC experience.

Now that those variables have been laid out, let’s compare the first two years of each regime:

Shannon: 12-13 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 1-4
Record vs. ACC: 6-10

Golden: 13-11 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 2-4
Record vs. ACC: 8-8

Richt: 19-7 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 3-3
Record vs. ACC: 12-5

Diaz: 14-10 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. ACC: 11-6

Cristobal: 12-13 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 1-5
Record vs. ACC: 6-10

Again, Mario is well behind where we should be based upon the program he’s inherited, the amount of $$ being invested for him, the competence of the support around him, the caliber of players he’s had vs. opponents faced, previous P5 coaching experience, etc etc etmfc.

So forget the 2-3 year rule of thumb that’s been discussed ad nauseam, just look at his predecessors, what they’ve been dealt, & compare. If anyone is remotely excusing what’s been taken place, u are being both irrational and delusional. Idgaf how close u r to the family, the program, w/e, this is completely unacceptable. However, we’re still w/in that 2-3 yr window, so all is not lost. With that being said, Golden, & Shannon both went 9-4 in yr 3, that’s not a bench mark of “improvement.” We need to see 10+ next season, end of discussion.
 
Last edited:
TriStarCane said:
I don’t know how he would define it, but I would guess he would want a majority of his two deep to be recruited guys playing at a level consistent or above their rankings. My opinion that’s measured mostly by draft picks and raw production. So getting Mauignoa to start 3 years at tackle, performing at a level that would get him drafted in the first round is a successful development. Maybe I’m too idealistic and it’s more gray, but that’s what I think when I hear “development.” Guys come in and get better while performing in accordance, or above, their prospect profile
Click to expand...

Thanks. I see development getting thrown around a lot lately and it’s like the “culture” or some other thing on the list of positives or improvements…

@Dwinstitles used to say the draft don’t lie…

Well. Oregons drafts have looked a lot like Miamis so I’m not sure I see the high recruiting rankings matching the NFL draft output…. Ie: development

To some of your points around the college game changing, with players and coaching moving around it is a bit harder to gauge …
 
AUcane said:
Harbaugh never called plays. He went straight from QBC to HC.

And can we please stop comparing Mario to Harbaugh? The guy has won at every college and pro stop. In fact, he's had great turn arounds at literally every stop he's been at - he's a great coach and Mario doesn't belong in the same conversation as this guy.
Click to expand...
Agreed.
 
Tonio said:
Another example with Coach Richt at Miami:

19-73-323%1*1-114-12

I think the biggest reason Mario should be getting more done is the ACC is the easiest conference to be getting this done. Looking at Mario, Richt, Dabo, and Jimbo the ACC has the least amount of games vs ranked opponents. That 12-13 record is an even bigger eyesore knowing how down the ACC is compared to the Big 10 and SEC.

But like others have said, we need to worry about 9 games or winning the ACC before we can even think about playoffs.
Click to expand...
I agree. I was able to look over some of the issues last season being year 1. But the same discipline issues, i.e. turnovers, mind numbing penalties, looking like you’ve never played football before that morning, were still present. That’s what worries me. Makes me believe no matter how much purging is done nothing will change.
 
Advertisement
Rellyrell said:
Detractors will always look for ways to justify, excuse, rationalize, evade truths, while gaslighting anyone who listen to them by inserting data, talking points that take away from the real issue at hand.

@TriStarCane, great analysis. Myself, along w/ @mcnaire2004 have drummed home this point. I first mentioned this awhile ago that building a championship team w/in a 5 yr window is not only archaic, but it’s rare throughout the history of CFB. I went all the way back to the 1900’s to show that the vast majority of championship coaches (& vast doesn’t really do justice to this stat) have their teams up and running no later than year 3, most by year 2, but no later than year 3.

I’ve seen several detractors used terms like nuanced or variables, to disregard the data presented. OK that’s fine, b/c we all “know” Miami can’t compete with big boy schools. We also know this ain’t the same Miami of the 80’s, where recruiting and innovations were kept lock-in-key w/o the internet age.

So @TriStarCane @mcnaire2004 let’s stop using other school’s records, or past coaches from said schools. Let’s just use 2007 Miami vs. Mario currently.

Let’s examine the variables of his predecessors, u know, to add CIS’s favorite word, “context”:

1. Mario is making
-Approx. 8x more than Randy Shannon/yr,
-4x more than Golden/yr
-2x more than Richt/yr
-2.5x more than Diaz/yr.

2. Mario is coaching in the NIL era, an era in which the U has become the poster child of this era

3. Mario’s AD is one who has a Nat’l Title as an Assoc. AD, & Two Nat’l Titles as an AD all from P5 programs.
-Shannon’s AD came from The MAC, where his teams went 19-18 during his tenure & he may or may not have been involved w/ Nevin Shapiro.

-Golden’s AD were Eichorst (who was here for a sip of coffee b4 bailing to Nebraska in which he was fired for woeful results), & Blake James (a glorified fund raiser who came from The Univ. of Maine, where he specialized in their hockey program)

-Richt’s AD was the aforementioned Blake James

-Manny’s AD was the aforementioned Blake James

4. Shannon took over Miami after the FIU brawl, & from 2004-2006, Miami went 25-12 (.675)

Golden took over Miami during the most modern day salacious scandal to hit CFB sports, & from 2007-2010 Miami went 28-22 (.560)

Richt took over Miami shortly after the cloud, and during the insubordination period of Golden, after the most egregious home lost in program history took place in 2015. From 2011-2015, Miami went 36-27 (.571)

Diaz took over Miami after Richt stabilized Miami, but had health & coaching issues in his last season. Nevertheless, he inherited a program from 2016-2018 that went 26-13 (.666)

Mario took over Miami after Diaz, & while Diaz was a chump of a coach who had no business here, didn’t have controversy surrounding him or the program, & from 2019-2021 went 21-15 (.583)

5. Only Richt & Cristobal on this “who’s who” of coaching list had previous P5 HC experience.

Now that those variables have been laid out, let’s compare the first two years of each regimen:

Shannon: 12-13 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 1-4
Record vs. ACC: 6-10

Golden: 13-11 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 2-4
Record vs. ACC: 8-8

Richt: 19-7 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 3-3
Record vs. ACC: 12-5

Diaz: 14-10 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. ACC: 11-6

Cristobal: 12-13 after two years.
Record vs. Top 25: 1-5
Record vs. ACC: 6-10

Again, Mario is well behind where we should be based upon the program he’s inherited, the amount of $$ being invested for him, the competence of the support around him, the caliber of players he’s had vs. opponents faced, previous P5 coaching experience, etc etc etmfc.

So forget the 2-3 year rule of thumb that’s been discussed ad nauseam, just look at his predecessors, what they’ve been dealt & compare. If anyone is remotely excusing what’s been taken place, u are being both irrational and delusional. Idgaf how close u r to the family, the program, w/e, this is completely unacceptable. However, we’re still w/in that 2-3 yr window, so all is not lost. With that being said, Golden, & Shannon both went 9-4 in yr 3, that’s not a bench mark of “improvement.” We need to see 10+ next season, end of discussion.
Click to expand...
This is the central thesis of my post. Mario is performing below average period, let alone a championship level coach. The issue here is the investment level is that of a championship caliber coach and my doomsday fear is this is the final chip push. If Mario doesn’t work out, I don’t see this level of resources again. On the other hand, if he wins 10 games he’s going to get an extension 100%, but our ceiling is set. I’ve come to accept our only hope is #3 of my list. We have to hope the paradigm shift of college football changes the calculus completely
 
I appreciate the effort OP, but when you lose to teams like MTSU, DUKE, FSU x2, Rutgers it tells you all you need to know.

When you have to replace both coordinators b2b you already know.

There isn’t 1 crumb of evidence Mario can win 10 games here let alone a natty.

Btw we haven’t had a true special teams coordinator since Randy’s regime. Think about that for a second.
 
1705004619420.gif
 
Rellyrell said:
So forget the 2-3 year rule of thumb that’s been discussed ad nauseam, just look at his predecessors, what they’ve been dealt, & compare. If anyone is remotely excusing what’s been taken place, u are being both irrational and delusional. Idgaf how close u r to the family, the program, w/e, this is completely unacceptable. However, we’re still w/in that 2-3 yr window, so all is not lost. With that being said, Golden, & Shannon both went 9-4 in yr 3, that’s not a bench mark of “improvement.” We need to see 10+ next season, end of discussion.
Click to expand...
What I would watch for is if they blow out average teams and if they fix those negative value offense stats that @mossmadness likes to post.

If they win 10 games but it is some fluky Rosier year type stuff against a weak schedule then that is still bad sign imo.
 
Advertisement
Glow said:
What I would watch for is if they blow out average teams and if they fix those negative value offense stats that @mossmadness likes to post.

If they win 10 games but it is some fluky Rosier year type stuff against a weak schedule then that is still bad sign imo.
Click to expand...

That’s a great point as well; but, honestly at this stage, I would take it, but I definitely understand that premise.
 
Just typical Miami now. For every good change that happens there are two bad changes. One step forward two backwards. Team didn't quit, yet team doesn't look as good as it did under Richt or Manny. You can see talent is better, change of culture, none of that translated to wins though and our best under Mario hasn't been 1/2 as good as our best under Manuel or Richt. We are in a weird place. Next year make or break for Mario.
 
nobeastofburden said:
Just typical Miami now. For every good change that happens there are two bad changes. One step forward two backwards. Team didn't quit, yet team doesn't look as good as it did under Richt or Manny. You can see talent is better, change of culture, none of that translated to wins though and our best under Mario hasn't been 1/2 as good as our best under Manuel or Richt. We are in a weird place. Next year make or break for Mario.
Click to expand...
Mario better not lose to Manny next year or the program (and this site) will become a radioactive dumpster fire.
 
Advertisement
Angry Ibis said:
Thanks. I see development getting thrown around a lot lately and it’s like the “culture” or some other thing on the list of positives or improvements…

@Dwinstitles used to say the draft don’t lie…

Well. Oregons drafts have looked a lot like Miamis so I’m not sure I see the high recruiting rankings matching the NFL draft output…. Ie: development

To some of your points around the college game changing, with players and coaching moving around it is a bit harder to gauge …
Click to expand...
I don’t thin u can attract to many east coast and south east kid to go to Oregon in the boat load. But the draft don’t lie. There is a reason every HC leaves Oregon. You can’t do at Oregon what u can do at Alabama OSU Clemson FSU UF UM []_[] UGA etc. U can’t do that at that place you just can’t. Can they be good and have an elite season? Yes but they can’t be dominant or dominate an era. And now moving conferences to a physical conference? They ****ed, if Iowa had an offense Oregon would not be able to do anything on that defense.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top