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Mario Will Need To Be A Statistical Outlier - A Review
- Thread starter TriStarCane
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me either
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Us being a 9-10 win team with something better once every 4 years was always my ceiling for Mario. The problem is that he has shown nothing to suggest we get even there. I have not doubt we will have the best talent in the conference but unless this guy relinquishes his micromanaging over the Gameday prep we will struggle to hit 10 wins regularly.
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Saban failed at dolphins. ****** coach.
I'm just saying…Who said these are any indicator?
It's why Mario wants "physical" guys with proper "measurables".
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JustAFanHTX
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Well written and I would love to see the spins! There are no facts that exist TODAY that shows that Mario is anything more than an average coach. He’s not elite. Heck he’s not even very good. Mediocre with one elite trait. We’re in troubleLong post with numbers and stuff. Pop your adderall and lock in
This post is the result of something I looked into after an intriguing post from @JayCane20 in the Romberg thread. It’s been discussed before but just how soon would you know if you have a championship level coach?
This is 100% on the nose. Let’s take a 25 year stroll through recent coaching history. We are going to address one of the biggest myths in football fandom: “it takes time to build a championship.” This is, bluntly, horse **** and has been for almost my whole life. While timeline of an achieved championship varies, the data points show that you will know if you have a strong coach within 2 years in modern college football. Let’s look at the table below to see how every championship level coach (that’s still the standard, right?) compares through their first two full seasons
For this jaunt through history, i went back to every coach that has won a title in the post poll champ era (BCS + CFP). I used a couple of key indicators of success that are uncontroversial: overall record, record vs ranked teams, % of games vs ranked opponents, top 12 finishes (since that would be a playoff berth now), and post season record. This spans different championship structures and multiple rule changes. The results all show the same thing: championship coaches do the unimaginable…they win. And they do it pretty much right away. After looking at this you will come to the horrific conclusion that is plain to see: Mario will need to be a statistical outlier in order to win big here.
Coach Overall Record vs Top 25 % games vs ranked Top 12 Finish Post Season Record School Prior Record - 2 yr Cristobol 12-13 1-5 24% 0 0-1 15-8 Saban (AL) 19-8 7-5 44% 1 1-1 16-9 Smart 21-7 6-5 39% 1 1-1 19-6 Dabo 15-12 2-6 29% 0 1-0 17-9 Orgeron 19-7 7-4 42% 1 1-1 17-8* Urban (OSU) 24-2 5-2 27% 2 1-0 18-8* Harbaugh 20-6 4-4 30% 2 1-1 12-13 Jimbo 19-8 2-4 22% 0 2-0 16-10* Chizik* 22-5 7-3 37% 1 2-0 14-11 Urban (UF)* 22-4 7-3 41% 2 2-0 15-9 Miles 22-4 8-4 46% 2 2-0 22-4 Brown 18-8 4-7 42% 0 1-1 12-12 Carroll 17-8 8-5 52% 1 1-1 11-13 Saban (LSU) 18-7 6-4 40% 1 2-0 7-15 Tressel* 21-5 7-3 38% 1 1-1 14-10 Coker* 24-1 9-1 40% 2 1-1 20-5 Stoops 20-5 7-1 32% 1 1-1 9-14 Bowden 15-8 1-2 13% 0 1-0 4-18 Fulmer 17-6-1 5-5-1 45% 1 1-1 18-5-2
Take aways
- There is not a single metric that has Mario on the path to a championship based on the historical record of coaches that have achieve that since 1998
-He would be the only coach in the last 25 years to win a national title with a losing record in his first two seasons. The second lowest winning % (Dabo at 55%) is still 7 points higher than Mario. The average total victories across a championship coach’s first 2 years is 19.6. Mario clocks in at a robust 12…over 60% off the pace in total wins
- Mario’s record vs Top 25 teams would be the lowest of any coach that won a national championship since 1998. The only other coach with as few wins vs ranked teams is Bowden, who coached before all the schools were integrated and we were just getting done fighting in Nam
- …and what’s worse, Mario’s schedule difficulty is bottom 3. He has lost more games against a softer schedule than only two coaches (both FSU coaches btw…). Mario doesn’t win against ranked teams or ****** teams. Every other coach has at least 2 wins vs top 25 teams and 12 coaches had *gasp* winning records against top 25 teams!
- 14 out of 18 championship coaches had a Top 12, or playoff level, finish in their first 2 seasons. 5 of them would have gone back to back in their first two years. The only modern coaches who didn’t ended up landing prolific QBs to win: Dabo with Watson, Jimbo with Winston, Mack with VY. Bowden is again the the other one and he needed 17 years to win a title. That’s just not reality anymore. Or Maybe we are on a 20 year plan unless you think transfers from Albany will win us a ship
- Something I found interesting was that every championship coach had won at least one bowl or playoff game in their first 2 years…we have a problem with that as well. Bowl games are totally different now, but there is some value in prepping kids to play in big games, right?
- Some guys really didn’t get the memo about having to build. Four coaches won national titles in their first 2 seasons. Weirdos. 3 of the 4 inherited teams with worse 2 year prior records than Mario did with Miami. The only one that inherited a wagon was Coker. None of them had the portal, either.
But TriStar, you ignorant ****. Miami was in way worse shape than all those other programs! About that. Our two season record preceding our new coach was on par with the other programs for the most part. The average two year win total of these teams was 14.5. Ours was 15. In fact, 6 coaches inherited losing records and 4 were hired after major scandals. I don’t think that narrative holds. We had been off penalties for almost 10 years at time of hire. We also have never had more financial support than now. Culture is subjective and I doubt our culture was worse than many of these other schools when the change was made.
But he can recruit! Yeah - so could all these guys. Saban, Smart, Urban are some of the best to ever do it. No one on this list was talent starved. He recruits better than most, but it has not been accompanied with wins like his peers
Okay, so now that you’re depressed, here are possibilities for winning that would be basically small miracles in my assessment
- Mario changes his entire game day coach philosophy, hires top shelf assistance and gives them full autonomy while he works as a CEO and focuses on remaining an elite talent acquisition program …lol
- Mario lands a generational QB like Dabo or Jimbo while landing top 5 classes …I don’t love our chances with the first part.
- Deus ex machina that changes the entire landscape of the sport and old data points become irrelevant. This actually has a higher likelihood of occurring than the other two points, especially with the portal, NIL, Congress, and coaches retiring and leaving.
My take is that we do not have a championship coach and might be further away from it than when Richt retired. Here is hoping this thread gets violently thrown into my face and it’s not prophetic because it doesn’t look awesome. This is my mopery rosebud. God speed
Last edited:
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Enough with the trying. Can’t be done.
Maybe he can’t find a qb? Only gripe
Messed up 1 call on the kneel. Didn’t matter. We weren’t going anywhere anyway. 12 team playoff? Matters now.
Timeouts? You all want him to call time out with 50 seconds left and march 60 yards with a ****** qb. He’s not doing it. Just get that in your head.
He’s getting better players. This is a 5 year plan. That’s the start. Improved year 1 to 2. Will we improve to 3? Probably. So good.
Maybe he can’t find a qb? Only gripe
Messed up 1 call on the kneel. Didn’t matter. We weren’t going anywhere anyway. 12 team playoff? Matters now.
Timeouts? You all want him to call time out with 50 seconds left and march 60 yards with a ****** qb. He’s not doing it. Just get that in your head.
He’s getting better players. This is a 5 year plan. That’s the start. Improved year 1 to 2. Will we improve to 3? Probably. So good.
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I agree about the Ewers part but Texas would have had a QB on the sidelines so Sark would have benched him after a couple games if he’d of ever gotten the first start but I doubt Sark would ever put himself into a situation where TVD was his one and only / best option…
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Harbaugh never called plays. He went straight from QBC to HC.
And can we please stop comparing Mario to Harbaugh? The guy has won at every college and pro stop. In fact, he's had great turn arounds at literally every stop he's been at - he's a great coach and Mario doesn't belong in the same conversation as this guy.
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Absolutely awesome post, spot on…well done. Appreciate this. It’s this type of analytical and in-depth breakdowns that make this message board one of the better ones on the entire internet.
This post is the result of something I looked into after an intriguing post from @JayCane20 in the Romberg thread. It’s been discussed before but just how soon would you know if you have a championship level coach?
This is 100% on the nose. Let’s take a 25 year stroll through recent coaching history. We are going to address one of the biggest myths in football fandom: “it takes time to build a championship.” This is, bluntly, horse **** and has been for almost my whole life. While timeline of an achieved championship varies, the data points show that you will know if you have a strong coach within 2 years in modern college football. Let’s look at the table below to see how every championship level coach (that’s still the standard, right?) compares through their first two full seasons
For this jaunt through history, i went back to every coach that has won a title in the post poll champ era (BCS + CFP). I used a couple of key indicators of success that are uncontroversial: overall record, record vs ranked teams, % of games vs ranked opponents, top 12 finishes (since that would be a playoff berth now), and post season record. This spans different championship structures and multiple rule changes. The results all show the same thing: championship coaches do the unimaginable…they win. And they do it pretty much right away. After looking at this you will come to the horrific conclusion that is plain to see: Mario will need to be a statistical outlier in order to win big here.
Coach Overall Record vs Top 25 % games vs ranked Top 12 Finish Post Season Record School Prior Record - 2 yr Cristobol 12-13 1-5 24% 0 0-1 15-8 Saban (AL) 19-8 7-5 44% 1 1-1 16-9 Smart 21-7 6-5 39% 1 1-1 19-6 Dabo 15-12 2-6 29% 0 1-0 17-9 Orgeron 19-7 7-4 42% 1 1-1 17-8* Urban (OSU) 24-2 5-2 27% 2 1-0 18-8* Harbaugh 20-6 4-4 30% 2 1-1 12-13 Jimbo 19-8 2-4 22% 0 2-0 16-10* Chizik* 22-5 7-3 37% 1 2-0 14-11 Urban (UF)* 22-4 7-3 41% 2 2-0 15-9 Miles 22-4 8-4 46% 2 2-0 22-4 Brown 18-8 4-7 42% 0 1-1 12-12 Carroll 17-8 8-5 52% 1 1-1 11-13 Saban (LSU) 18-7 6-4 40% 1 2-0 7-15 Tressel* 21-5 7-3 38% 1 1-1 14-10 Coker* 24-1 9-1 40% 2 1-1 20-5 Stoops 20-5 7-1 32% 1 1-1 9-14 Bowden 15-8 1-2 13% 0 1-0 4-18 Fulmer 17-6-1 5-5-1 45% 1 1-1 18-5-2
Take aways
- There is not a single metric that has Mario on the path to a championship based on the historical record of coaches that have achieve that since 1998
-He would be the only coach in the last 25 years to win a national title with a losing record in his first two seasons. The second lowest winning % (Dabo at 55%) is still 7 points higher than Mario. The average total victories across a championship coach’s first 2 years is 19.6. Mario clocks in at a robust 12…over 60% off the pace in total wins
- Mario’s record vs Top 25 teams would be the lowest of any coach that won a national championship since 1998. The only other coach with as few wins vs ranked teams is Bowden, who coached before all the schools were integrated and we were just getting done fighting in Nam
- …and what’s worse, Mario’s schedule difficulty is bottom 3. He has lost more games against a softer schedule than only two coaches (both FSU coaches btw…). Mario doesn’t win against ranked teams or ****** teams. Every other coach has at least 2 wins vs top 25 teams and 12 coaches had *gasp* winning records against top 25 teams!
- 14 out of 18 championship coaches had a Top 12, or playoff level, finish in their first 2 seasons. 5 of them would have gone back to back in their first two years. The only modern coaches who didn’t ended up landing prolific QBs to win: Dabo with Watson, Jimbo with Winston, Mack with VY. Bowden is again the the other one and he needed 17 years to win a title. That’s just not reality anymore. Or Maybe we are on a 20 year plan unless you think transfers from Albany will win us a ship
- Something I found interesting was that every championship coach had won at least one bowl or playoff game in their first 2 years…we have a problem with that as well. Bowl games are totally different now, but there is some value in prepping kids to play in big games, right?
- Some guys really didn’t get the memo about having to build. Four coaches won national titles in their first 2 seasons. Weirdos. 3 of the 4 inherited teams with worse 2 year prior records than Mario did with Miami. The only one that inherited a wagon was Coker. None of them had the portal, either.
But TriStar, you ignorant ****. Miami was in way worse shape than all those other programs! About that. Our two season record preceding our new coach was on par with the other programs for the most part. The average two year win total of these teams was 14.5. Ours was 15. In fact, 6 coaches inherited losing records and 4 were hired after major scandals. I don’t think that narrative holds. We had been off penalties for almost 10 years at time of hire. We also have never had more financial support than now. Culture is subjective and I doubt our culture was worse than many of these other schools when the change was made.
But he can recruit! Yeah - so could all these guys. Saban, Smart, Urban are some of the best to ever do it. No one on this list was talent starved. He recruits better than most, but it has not been accompanied with wins like his peers
Okay, so now that you’re depressed, here are possibilities for winning that would be basically small miracles in my assessment
- Mario changes his entire game day coach philosophy, hires top shelf assistance and gives them full autonomy while he works as a CEO and focuses on remaining an elite talent acquisition program …lol
- Mario lands a generational QB like Dabo or Jimbo while landing top 5 classes …I don’t love our chances with the first part.
- Deus ex machina that changes the entire landscape of the sport and old data points become irrelevant. This actually has a higher likelihood of occurring than the other two points, especially with the portal, NIL, Congress, and coaches retiring and leaving.
My take is that we do not have a championship coach and might be further away from it than when Richt retired. Here is hoping this thread gets violently thrown into my face and it’s not prophetic because it doesn’t look awesome. This is my mopery rosebud. God speed
Now to read the next six pages to see which typical posters avoided this discussion, or stuck their head in the sand…
JustAFanHTX
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You should read it man. You’re airing on the side of delusion at this point in the face of facts supported with evidence
TriStarCane
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Truth be told is we are barely mediocre. With this budget. And this talent.
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kyle_schick
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Hopefully in his retirement, Nick Saban reaches out to Mario and gives him a "Come to Jesus" lesson.
You're being too generous imho. I have Mario's performance over his first two seasons in the bottom 10% of all Div 1 coaches from an underperformance perspective, when considering relative talent levels and schedules.
Forget Bama, Georgia or Mich discussions and comparisons. We play .500 ball against the collection of UVA, NC State. NC, Pitt, GT, Louisville, etc.
And unless Mario has something more up his sleeve we will be entering the '24 season with one of the worst QB rooms among Div 1 teams.
If we don't find a far better solution at QB my prediction for '24 is another .500-ish record.
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I read the whole thing, thank you for putting it together @TriStarCane
This post is the result of something I looked into after an intriguing post from @JayCane20 in the Romberg thread. It’s been discussed before but just how soon would you know if you have a championship level coach?
This is 100% on the nose. Let’s take a 25 year stroll through recent coaching history. We are going to address one of the biggest myths in football fandom: “it takes time to build a championship.” This is, bluntly, horse **** and has been for almost my whole life. While timeline of an achieved championship varies, the data points show that you will know if you have a strong coach within 2 years in modern college football. Let’s look at the table below to see how every championship level coach (that’s still the standard, right?) compares through their first two full seasons
For this jaunt through history, i went back to every coach that has won a title in the post poll champ era (BCS + CFP). I used a couple of key indicators of success that are uncontroversial: overall record, record vs ranked teams, % of games vs ranked opponents, top 12 finishes (since that would be a playoff berth now), and post season record. This spans different championship structures and multiple rule changes. The results all show the same thing: championship coaches do the unimaginable…they win. And they do it pretty much right away. After looking at this you will come to the horrific conclusion that is plain to see: Mario will need to be a statistical outlier in order to win big here.
Coach Overall Record vs Top 25 % games vs ranked Top 12 Finish Post Season Record School Prior Record - 2 yr Cristobol 12-13 1-5 24% 0 0-1 15-8 Saban (AL) 19-8 7-5 44% 1 1-1 16-9 Smart 21-7 6-5 39% 1 1-1 19-6 Dabo 15-12 2-6 29% 0 1-0 17-9 Orgeron 19-7 7-4 42% 1 1-1 17-8* Urban (OSU) 24-2 5-2 27% 2 1-0 18-8* Harbaugh 20-6 4-4 30% 2 1-1 12-13 Jimbo 19-8 2-4 22% 0 2-0 16-10* Chizik* 22-5 7-3 37% 1 2-0 14-11 Urban (UF)* 22-4 7-3 41% 2 2-0 15-9 Miles 22-4 8-4 46% 2 2-0 22-4 Brown 18-8 4-7 42% 0 1-1 12-12 Carroll 17-8 8-5 52% 1 1-1 11-13 Saban (LSU) 18-7 6-4 40% 1 2-0 7-15 Tressel* 21-5 7-3 38% 1 1-1 14-10 Coker* 24-1 9-1 40% 2 1-1 20-5 Stoops 20-5 7-1 32% 1 1-1 9-14 Bowden 15-8 1-2 13% 0 1-0 4-18 Fulmer 17-6-1 5-5-1 45% 1 1-1 18-5-2
Take aways
- There is not a single metric that has Mario on the path to a championship based on the historical record of coaches that have achieve that since 1998
-He would be the only coach in the last 25 years to win a national title with a losing record in his first two seasons. The second lowest winning % (Dabo at 55%) is still 7 points higher than Mario. The average total victories across a championship coach’s first 2 years is 19.6. Mario clocks in at a robust 12…over 60% off the pace in total wins
- Mario’s record vs Top 25 teams would be the lowest of any coach that won a national championship since 1998. The only other coach with as few wins vs ranked teams is Bowden, who coached before all the schools were integrated and we were just getting done fighting in Nam
- …and what’s worse, Mario’s schedule difficulty is bottom 3. He has lost more games against a softer schedule than only two coaches (both FSU coaches btw…). Mario doesn’t win against ranked teams or ****** teams. Every other coach has at least 2 wins vs top 25 teams and 12 coaches had *gasp* winning records against top 25 teams!
- 14 out of 18 championship coaches had a Top 12, or playoff level, finish in their first 2 seasons. 5 of them would have gone back to back in their first two years. The only modern coaches who didn’t ended up landing prolific QBs to win: Dabo with Watson, Jimbo with Winston, Mack with VY. Bowden is again the the other one and he needed 17 years to win a title. That’s just not reality anymore. Or Maybe we are on a 20 year plan unless you think transfers from Albany will win us a ship
- Something I found interesting was that every championship coach had won at least one bowl or playoff game in their first 2 years…we have a problem with that as well. Bowl games are totally different now, but there is some value in prepping kids to play in big games, right?
- Some guys really didn’t get the memo about having to build. Four coaches won national titles in their first 2 seasons. Weirdos. 3 of the 4 inherited teams with worse 2 year prior records than Mario did with Miami. The only one that inherited a wagon was Coker. None of them had the portal, either.
But TriStar, you ignorant ****. Miami was in way worse shape than all those other programs! About that. Our two season record preceding our new coach was on par with the other programs for the most part. The average two year win total of these teams was 14.5. Ours was 15. In fact, 6 coaches inherited losing records and 4 were hired after major scandals. I don’t think that narrative holds. We had been off penalties for almost 10 years at time of hire. We also have never had more financial support than now. Culture is subjective and I doubt our culture was worse than many of these other schools when the change was made.
But he can recruit! Yeah - so could all these guys. Saban, Smart, Urban are some of the best to ever do it. No one on this list was talent starved. He recruits better than most, but it has not been accompanied with wins like his peers
Okay, so now that you’re depressed, here are possibilities for winning that would be basically small miracles in my assessment
- Mario changes his entire game day coach philosophy, hires top shelf assistance and gives them full autonomy while he works as a CEO and focuses on remaining an elite talent acquisition program …lol
- Mario lands a generational QB like Dabo or Jimbo while landing top 5 classes …I don’t love our chances with the first part.
- Deus ex machina that changes the entire landscape of the sport and old data points become irrelevant. This actually has a higher likelihood of occurring than the other two points, especially with the portal, NIL, Congress, and coaches retiring and leaving.
My take is that we do not have a championship coach and might be further away from it than when Richt retired. Here is hoping this thread gets violently thrown into my face and it’s not prophetic because it doesn’t look awesome. This is my mopery rosebud. God speed
I hate reading as much as I want Mario to be successful but the proof is in the pudding
The odds of Mario steering this ship to a Natty is slim and would be unprecedented
Without a true leader with grit at the QB position it will be impossible to obtain so while he has wisely and successfully started heavy crootin the trenches on both sides of the ball it will ultimately come down to him landing the IT FACTOR QB who comes in dominates and leaves a good taste in our mouths for future stud QB's to follow suit creating a dynasty
I am on the patient side with Mario going into year 3 though its been 20+ years of irrelevance that he had no control over
Time stops for no one and the clock in Miami is a time bomb
Something has got to give
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TriStarCane
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We are one of the most underperforming programs in the country relative to strength of schedule and class composite. There is no doubt about that (or shouldn’t be).
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I can’t even think about a Natty right now, I just want to win 10 games. I don’t think people really realize how bad we’ve been over the last two decades now.
- We have ONE 10-win season since we joined the ACC, 2017 with Mark Richt.
- We haven’t won 9 games since 2017, and only four times since 2009.
- We’ve won 7 conference games in the ACC only twice since joining (2017 Richt, 2020 Manny).
I could go on, point being is that the bar really isn’t high for Mario…and the fact that he can’t even coach his way into an above .500 conference record in his first two seasons here is alarming to say the least.
We had two consecutive sub-.500 conference records (3-5 both in 2022 and 2023) for the first time since 2006 and 2007. The same ACC that was blacklisted from the playoffs because FSU ran over a dog**** conference.
Something has to change this year, or Mario definitely isn’t the guy.
- We have ONE 10-win season since we joined the ACC, 2017 with Mark Richt.
- We haven’t won 9 games since 2017, and only four times since 2009.
- We’ve won 7 conference games in the ACC only twice since joining (2017 Richt, 2020 Manny).
I could go on, point being is that the bar really isn’t high for Mario…and the fact that he can’t even coach his way into an above .500 conference record in his first two seasons here is alarming to say the least.
We had two consecutive sub-.500 conference records (3-5 both in 2022 and 2023) for the first time since 2006 and 2007. The same ACC that was blacklisted from the playoffs because FSU ran over a dog**** conference.
Something has to change this year, or Mario definitely isn’t the guy.
TriStarCane
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Here is my concern - and it’s shared throughout the post. I think there is a growing fear and realization that this is the the last bet for our admin. I don’t think there is life after Mario to the extent of this level of financial support. If the data show that Mario is not going to win a title without a significant paradigm shift and this is our last big investment into this program (I think that but won’t speak for others) than we are Minnesota, Illinois, and Nebraska. It’s hard to see us ever winning again. We are now talking about relegating our expectations. That’s a tough one to swallow, though admittedly I’m basically there
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