You pay the extra 1.5 million on the proven commodity for +1 win, all day.
Those aren’t really the stakes, though admittedly I wasn’t clear in my last post.
The difference is this: if your QB proves himself in-house, you might end up paying him around $5 million. But if you’re trying to lure that same proven QB from another school, you may have to pay something closer to $6.5 million.
Take Dante Moore as an example. My guess is Oregon paid him somewhere around $2–$3 million last year. He played at a Day 1 pick level. That’s the benefit of developing a QB in-house: because he hasn’t fully proven himself yet, you can get elite-level play at a discount.
And even after he proves himself like he did last year, you still may not have to pay as much as you would in the portal. Dante is reportedly getting paid around $5 million this upcoming season. Mensah is reportedly receiving $6.5 million.
So the point is, when you develop QBs in-house, you get two economic advantages: (1) you can get strong play at a discount before they’ve fully proven themselves, and (2) even once they do prove themselves, you can often retain them for less than it would cost to pull that same proven player out of the portal.
That’s why it makes economic sense to develop QBs in-house.
Like you said, though, the risk is that none of the in-house guys end up being any good. But the point is that the cost difference between an unproven in-house player, even a five-star, and a proven portal QB is closer to $3–4 million, not $1.5 million.