If Duke wins the ACCCG, they will still be ranked below two G5 conference champs so will not get an automatic bid. There's no way the ACC gets locked out of the playoffs. The committee will have to put Miami in under that scenario. Go Blue Devils.
p.s. credit goes to Josh Pate for talking about this scenario.on his podcast
If Virginia wins, they're in.
I don't see any way Duke actually wins, but let's conduct the entire thought experiment where Duke wins.
The winner of UNT-Tulane is in the playoffs. This will be a placeholder berth, as both have lame duck staffs and players. But, there is no conceivable way Duke leapfrogs either of them.
JMU is ranked even higher than those teams. Troy (22.5 point dog) must beat JMU for Duke to even be considered. Without a Troy win, none of the next part matters.
In the extraordinarily unlikely event that Troy wins, Duke would get in over a 9-4 Troy. Duke would then be compared to the winner of the UNLV-Boise game. Both teams are similarly ranked to Due right now. If UNLV wins, they'd go to 11-2. I don't think the committee would leave them out. If Boise wins, they'd go to 9-4. At that point, there would actually be a chance Duke could get in the playoff over both Troy and Boise.
None of this is going to happen, mind you. The ACC is going to guarantee Virginia wins this game.
I also think Pate's logic about the ACC "not getting shut out" is based on sentiment, not reality. The committee doesn't give a flying **** if the ACC "gets left out."