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Line dropping as suspected

Poptimus said:
Check out the explanation in the below thread. It’s much more profitable for casinos in the long run to not call off action or get equal amounts wagered on both sides:


Post in thread 'UL is a 2.5 point favorite (Updated 9/14)'
https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/ul-is-a-2-5-point-favorite-updated-9-14.163208/post-4847996
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1) Instead of even money on both sides, let’s agree that Vegas wants profit... that’s more important to them than which team wins.

2) I concede that maximum guaranteed profit is not always at equal money. Let’s say changing a line away from even money reduced the profit per bet by 50% but makes the gamble more enticing and increased the number of bets by more than 50%, then Vegas makes more money for the game while having an unequal distribution of money. So, there is a benefit to having a line that is enticing. However, if you make the line too enticing, the excess volume will yield ever increasing losses.

3) In conclusion, Vegas odds are reflective of the general consensus of sports gamblers, Vegas’s initial calculation of even money, and further modifications using multivariate forces of capitalism to fleece gamblers of the most amount of money. They are not pure odds based solely upon calculations of probability of a particular outcome in the game.

4) so, for the important part of this conversation, we are in agreement. Vagas odds and the line are more of a reflection of Vegas making maximum profit than they are of The probability of any particular outcome in the game.

🤓
 
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mackjones said:
I beg to disagree. Sorry. As I've yapped so many times before. Cane fans, and other degenerates, DON'T shift the line that dramatically. If what you've posted is true. huh? It's the Armani suit wearing WISE GUYS whom contribute to that dramatic line swing. duh. In other words, these " hard guys " wager " beaucoup Benjamins. For instance, it's not unheard for them to make a wager of say... $ 100 grand or $ 150 grand. And yes, $ 200 grand. Also, my man out in Lake Tahoe has wagered $ 25,000 Samoans on the Canes the past two games. Easy money, baby. Easy money.
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You wouldn't know 25 cents if they threw it in your direction at a traffic light.
 
BlastUla said:
1) Instead of even money on both sides, let’s agree that Vegas wants profit... that’s more important to them than which team wins.

2) I concede that maximum guaranteed profit is not always at equal money. Let’s say changing a line away from even money reduced the profit per bet by 50% but makes the gamble more enticing and increased the number of bets by more than 50%, then Vegas makes more money for the game while having an unequal distribution of money. So, there is a benefit to having a line that is enticing. However, if you make the line too enticing, the excess volume will yield ever increasing losses.

3) In conclusion, Vegas odds are reflective of the general consensus of sports gamblers, Vegas’s initial calculation of even money, and further modifications using multivariate forces of capitalism to fleece gamblers of the most amount of money. They are not pure odds based solely upon calculations of probability of a particular outcome in the game.

4) so, for the important part of this conversation, we are in agreement. Vagas odds and the line are more of a reflection of Vegas making maximum profit than they are of The probability of any particular outcome in the game.

🤓
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This is true. Some casinos definitely bet in addition to booking. That’s where the “Pinny lean” comes into play. If you stare at a line service odds of casinos around the word, you often see Pinnacle offering a line half point off almost every other casino. They’re doing that intentionally to lure in money on a certain side.

I always thought the Mirage does that, too. They almost always used to offer a half point different line but with -120 or -125 odds whereas other casinos just moved the spread and kept the vig -110.
 
ajkreider said:
Last week was a great Miami week. This week?

Phins lose
Marlins lose
Heat on the brink

We're going to have to dig deep for our mojo.
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On the flip side,

Lightning just won a Stanley Cup
Bucs is in first
Rays have a shot at the WS
 
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