forums

Line dropping as suspected

#1cane said:
The line is dropping because the money is coming in on Miami. Vegas has to adjust line to get people to play Clemson. As a guy who has placed a few bets when the money goes one way Vegas usually does not get beat. I would have liked to see the line remain steady at 16. The wise guys know as the late money how they bet is a good indicator of what happens. Example Louisville game all the late money was on Miami.
Click to expand...
Okay,
as a non-gambler what is late money, a couple of hours or a couple of days before kickoff? Also where would I go to see it... Thanks.
 
Advertisement
coffeecane said:
So if late money on miami, and line keeps dropping, is a good thing? I'm confused by the wishing it would stay at 16? Is it because early money on Miami and may go back other way before kickoff?
Thanks.
Click to expand...
Vegas wants the total amount of money even then they cant lose. If $1,000,000 is bet on Miami and only $40,000 they can get creamed so they move the line. If the line stayed at 16 the money is even. The smart money sees the big drop in the line and comes in late. If your betting Clemson would you rather be -16 or -12 big difference. Vegas does take a hit just not very often.
 
The Goldsheet has a predicted score of Clemson 42-22 with a current point spread of 15.....
 
I wish we could go one week around here without someone inaccurately professing as fact that Vegas wants equal money on both sides.

It doesn’t. We can get into a nuanced discussion as to why, but suffice it to say it doesn’t.

Re: late money moves, I think we will know for sure which way the sharps landed by about 4:30pm Saturday. I doubt the line moves much after that.
 
it should drop. dont think itll go below 10 or 11 tho. if you get in at that number, its fantastic
 
hoops156 said:
it should drop. dont think itll go below 10 or 11 tho. if you get in at that number, its fantastic
Click to expand...
Wouldn't you want the bigger number if you're betting Miami? The number going down hurts you. Maybe I misunderstood the post.
 
Advertisement
Poptimus said:
I wish we could go one week around here without someone inaccurately professing as fact that Vegas wants equal money on both sides.

It doesn’t. We can get into a nuanced discussion as to why, but suffice it to say it doesn’t.

Re: late money moves, I think we will know for sure which way the sharps landed by about 4:30pm Saturday. I doubt the line moves much after that.
Click to expand...

ok, we're getting pretty technical here on sports betting operations, but if they are running a straight agency book, they do of course want equal money, or more accurately, "neutral exposure." But if they are running a proprietary book, then you are correct, they do not necessarily care one way or the other. many, but not all, run both. Caesar's is a well known example of a sports booking operation with both agency and proprietary book. Whereas, Fertitta runs mostly agency. It all depends.
 
jsy said:
I just placed my 2 bets
I bet on both Miami with the spread
and straight up win

im honestly worried more for good weather I feel our team has the advantage in the rain
Click to expand...
I’m wondering where the advantage to us is in the rain?

New offense running lots of deception with 2 freshman backs (1 vet)...

Definitely hope your right, but their offense has been the same with the same QB and RB for some time.
 
Poptimus said:
I wish we could go one week around here without someone inaccurately professing as fact that Vegas wants equal money on both sides.

It doesn’t. We can get into a nuanced discussion as to why, but suffice it to say it doesn’t.

Re: late money moves, I think we will know for sure which way the sharps landed by about 4:30pm Saturday. I doubt the line moves much after that.
Click to expand...
Why would they not want equal money on both sides? Why would they forgo a guaranteed profit for a potential loss? Why would they gamble?... unless they gamble evenly and oppositely on different plays... just seems like extra work for no net profit.
 
BlastUla said:
Why would they not want equal money on both sides? Why would they forgo a guaranteed profit for a potential loss? Why would they gamble?... unless they gamble evenly and oppositely on different plays... just seems like extra work for no net profit.
Click to expand...
Check out the explanation in the below thread. It’s much more profitable for casinos in the long run to not call off action or get equal amounts wagered on both sides:


Post in thread 'UL is a 2.5 point favorite (Updated 9/14)'
https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/ul-is-a-2-5-point-favorite-updated-9-14.163208/post-4847996
 
Advertisement
Who care's, what the point spread indicates. I'm looking at it: no SPREAD. 0-0 to this day. We are there to win this *****.
 
colperm said:
I've got Miami +15, Miami ML and the over.

The weather scares me a bit with taking the over but I expect this to be a shootout. Venebles is a great DC but they don't have the horses back there that he's used to having.
Click to expand...

That's where I would go, over for the game and over on our team total points (if offered).
 
Can we merge this thread with the "the betting line is reality" thread? Or would both threads explode?
 
Fightinibis said:
I’m wondering where the advantage to us is in the rain?

New offense running lots of deception with 2 freshman backs (1 vet)...

Definitely hope your right, but their offense has been the same with the same QB and RB for some time.
Click to expand...
I think bad weather is a disadvantage to Clemson Bc they run a lot of misdirection and hopefully it will give our wrs an advantage over their dbs who may have problems with footing otherwise I can’t see our wrs having a big day unless they show out in a way that they have not before.
 
Back
Top