It’s tough because the QB class is so bad this year, he’s a lock to go in the first round with a chance of even going #1 overall if he kills the workouts/combine. But 1 year college starters have flopped in the pros so maybe it’s better to get another year of college if he wants to have a long career.
Most one year college starters have flopped in the NFL, or to build a successful career as a starting quarterback. Over the last decade, Kyler Murray is the only quarterback to have any success. Technically he had a few starts at Texas A&M before transferring to Oklahoma. He’s had a pretty good career although I think Arizona may be moving on and Murray has reached his ceiling.
Otherwise, you’re looking at players like Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins, Anthony Richardson, and Mitch Trubisky.
Teams are looking for the next Cam Newton, but he was an exception and outlier in many ways. I don’t know if any quarterback in the last 20 years brought the same physical traits as Newton. And even so, Newton was limited as a passer thrived because of his running skills.
Simpson is making a mistake. I know the NFL is always looking for quarterbacks but I have a hard time believing a franchise would spend the first round pick on him. But then again, then I fell to the quarterbacks mentioned above in the first round. General managers and head coaches just fall in love with players sometimes and project what isn’t there.
The smart move would be to take the $5 million and transfer to Miami where he can further develop his skills. Get those “banked reps”.