Learning from UT Game: Things to look for at Boone

[/I]I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Great post Lu but this last paragraph , to me, is the most important point to be taken....and it was the same thing I was thinking during the Ten/App State game. They basically already "threw the kitchen sink" out in that game to try and get their signature win. This is especially important when you're talking about a one dimensional team like App State.

I've liked this match up for some time now...and I still think we'll show well in this game. Manny Diaz is an aggressive coordinator and you can bet everything you own he's going to force App State to throw the ball in order to beat us. I don't want to get too overconfident (not that it matters a **** anyways since I won't be suiting up) but I think we'll win this game by at least 10 points if the run defense holds up.
 
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...Against Miami it will likely be a little more balanced and situation specific.

Miami has the potential for a greater vertical threat (IF Kaaya makes the throws AND receivers catch)...so far has shown an equal run game and better RPO short attack than Tenn.

App St's D could barely handle a mostly one dimensional Tenn O. For App St O, 7 points was off a felled DE.

How do you propose App St will.handle Miami's multi-dimensional attack on O? Even if we agree Tenn/Miami Ds are a wash, A LOT broke Apps way to score what they did.

The match ups just arent favorable for the plucky Mountaineers in this contest...but its why they play the game right?


Miami executes...Miami rolls...

What say you?
 
- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Final prediction (score)?

****.. Do the people on this board have such short memories that you have to paste an article that was just 5 posting away from yours. Just post your simple reply and I'm pretty sure I/We can find out the reference
 
- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Lamb's completion percentage is actually higher than Kaaya's and both have scored 2 TD's. Difference: Miami is ranked where app store will never be.

Well fk me, even a hillbilly can be right once in a while

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

In other words, Vegas is also gambling on this game being an App win as they will keep all of that money flowing to Miami and they wouldn't do that without having a good reason to believe App State will win. Otherwise, they are just throwing their own money away by not moving the line to balance out betting to ensure they at least break even.

In a nutshell: the sports analyst who set the lines in Vegas are hedging on an App State cover of the spread, with the line this close, they are calling for an App State win.

SUCK IT!

I can tell you don't understand how sports betting works.

Vegas doesn't care who wins. They want 50% of the money on each team or as close to that as possible. They want to make the 5-10% vig, juice, whatever you want to call it. This is why you will bet $110 to win $100 on App State. They have another guy that bets Miami $110 to win $100 on Miami. Doesn't matter who wins the game, Vegas makes $10. Get it??

Vegas doesn't choose sides, lol. They would be broke like every other sports betting junkie if they chose sides.

They also raise the vig for games or totals if it's getting hit on one side. Every Casino is different, the two big ones not so much. I think I paid a 25% vig for my bet of Miami total wins for the season. They kept it at 6.5 games but raised the vig until it got out of hand the raised the game total. It went up to 30% not much after I bet it, then to 7 games total within a few days. I don't know what it ended at right before the season started.
 
It's very surprising that no one has mentioned that App. State starts a true freshman at CB. That Tennessee game was close because Dobbs is a terrible passer. Look for Kaaya to have a bounce back game with 4 tds and over 300 yards passing. Miami will roll

He hasn't thrown for 400 TD's or 4 TD's through two games against FAMU and FAU. Duck is actually a better prospect than the senior starting opposite of him. I expect you guys may run for 6 yards a clip most of the game purely due to the defense playing soft coverage to keep the receiver in front of them, much like the ODU game. The plan against Tennessee was to force Dobb's to throw and stop the run. Against Miami it will likely be a little more balanced and situation specific.

You have absolutely 0 football knowledge. If we run at 6 ypc... There's no chance in **** you win the game. The only chance you have is stopping the run and relying on turnovers.

You scored 1 TD (1 was a gifted muffed punt/great field position) on a UT defense without their best LB for 2/3 of the game.. Our defense is as good or better.
 
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one thought which i think is relevant. since the summer Richt has been highlighting this game as one that "will be tough". i think that is a function of the scheduling and the yutes on the team. i suppose he saw two fairly easy teams to beat in the first two games, which could give the yutes on the team a false sense of confidence, which could be exploited in the following first away game by a good, disciplined, well coached team in App State playing the biggest game in its and its (fine) town's history.

so he's been preparing this team since the summer to NOT have a let down next week. that message has been communicated repeatedly since last saturday night. i think it percolates well enough so that there is no let down, at least none that will last the entire game.
 
App state is a whopping 5-26 on third downs (2-13 against old dominion and 3-13 against Tennessee) and gave up 160 yards rushing to old dominion


They might be hyped to play us but this is going to be over quickly
 
- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Lamb's completion percentage is actually higher than Kaaya's and both have scored 2 TD's. Difference: App State has played a ranked opponent whereas Miami hasn't.

Kaaya has 4 TDs. He also has a track record. No comparison.
 
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App state is a whopping 5-26 on third downs (2-13 against old dominion and 3-13 against Tennessee) and gave up 160 yards rushing to old dominion


They might be hyped to play us but this is going to be over quickly

Mother of pearl.
 
App state is a whopping 5-26 on third downs (2-13 against old dominion and 3-13 against Tennessee) and gave up 160 yards rushing to old dominion


They might be hyped to play us but this is going to be over quickly

Our biggest advantage is their weak passing game which will allow us to focus on stopping the run but they are also very good on D and I expect them to hang around for a while.

I see a tight low scoring game for 3 Q and then hopefully we pull away.
 
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Final prediction (score)?

Double digit win. No idea how the weather is going to be so impossible to give a decent score. I'll give you one anyway... in anticipation of some bad weather: 31-17.

Just to be clear, I'm terrible with score predictions. You're better off throwing a dart at a board or asking a pigeon.

Weather should be mid-70's with no rain - shouldn't be a factor.
 
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- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Lamb's completion percentage is actually higher than Kaaya's and both have scored 2 TD's. Difference: App State has played a ranked opponent whereas Miami hasn't.

Kaaya has 4tds.
 
I can't believe some have been talking about this all week. :ibis-roflmao-sm3:

App state is a whopping 5-26 on third downs (2-13 against old dominion and 3-13 against Tennessee) and gave up 160 yards rushing to old dominion


They might be hyped to play us but this is going to be over quickly
 
[/I]I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Great post Lu but this last paragraph , to me, is the most important point to be taken....and it was the same thing I was thinking during the Ten/App State game. They basically already "threw the kitchen sink" out in that game to try and get their signature win. This is especially important when you're talking about a one dimensional team like App State.

I've liked this match up for some time now...and I still think we'll show well in this game. Manny Diaz is an aggressive coordinator and you can bet everything you own he's going to force App State to throw the ball in order to beat us. I don't want to get too overconfident (not that it matters a **** anyways since I won't be suiting up) but I think we'll win this game by at least 10 points if the run defense holds up.

They've got no-one that can hang with Coley, Njoku or Richards if Kaaya and the Oline show up.
 
Final prediction (score)?

Double digit win. No idea how the weather is going to be so impossible to give a decent score. I'll give you one anyway... in anticipation of some bad weather: 31-17.

Just to be clear, I'm terrible with score predictions. You're better off throwing a dart at a board or asking a pigeon.

Not a bad prediction. I said 35-13. I think Norton is going to rag doll the interior of their OL. The question for them is how they're going to handle two dominant interior guys like Norton and RJ.
 
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