Reyrey
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Yea I don’t really look at it for the score projection. More the comparison on offense and defense.
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Key Stats and Rankings Heading into FSU
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canecountry3
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Yeah it's great for that. Wasn't a criticism, just saying. Trying to find some light in the overwhelming dark cloud of impending doom.
Reyrey
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I hear ya. I’ll say though and this is a personal opinion. I’m fine getting shredded for it. We are closer to being a good team then a bad one. If we take off the “hurricane fan blinders” and realize we are avg QB play away from 8-1, the season doesn’t feel as doom and gloom. Id argue even 9-0 considering we led at half to UNC. There are holes for sure. But we have a very good oline, very good rb room (deep), and a good defense. That’s a recipe for success. They need to figure out the holes that are completely bringing us down.
With no deep threat at WR(used), defenses are playing zone which allows them to look into our backfield. When you are running into an 8 man front with DBs looking in the backfield, it is much harder to break long runs. Combine that with the lack of speed and it makes for lots of 5-15 yard runs. I don't doubt for a second that if CJ had 30 carries he would have at minimum one 30+ yard run even against zone defenses. I also think that we would see less in the box if we actually ran out of 10 personnel with the WRs spread wide. Look at how Clemson had to play this look and gave up an 80 yarder. If CJ was getting this with runs up the middle, he breaks ONE minimum in 30 carries. Heck, Fletcher likely breaks one over 30 as well.
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FSU gameplay predictions:
We lose toss,
Absolutely shaky offensive start with TVD - no turnovers on first series - failed tunnel, short out route, a batted crosser. IZ for 3 maybe 2x. 3n out.
Dud gets injured somewhere in late 1st or early 2nd qtr.
Defense gets big stops on 1st or 2nd down, gets torched on 3rd n long and/or has egregiously dumb penalties to keep drive(s) alive with back breaker(s) on next play.
Special teams snafu early in game leading to a jump out by FSU. Thinking this looks alot like the beginning of the ATM game, without the comeback.
Emory gets thrown in and we go into the Clemson gameplan. Still no urgency. Mids effective. A good to great play once or twice in the game.
Defense plays as well as it can through mid 3rd qtr; if we're still within 10-17, gates open and we're done.
CoRch HW says post game he's proud and we're back to wERQ.
Amen.
We lose toss,
Absolutely shaky offensive start with TVD - no turnovers on first series - failed tunnel, short out route, a batted crosser. IZ for 3 maybe 2x. 3n out.
Dud gets injured somewhere in late 1st or early 2nd qtr.
Defense gets big stops on 1st or 2nd down, gets torched on 3rd n long and/or has egregiously dumb penalties to keep drive(s) alive with back breaker(s) on next play.
Special teams snafu early in game leading to a jump out by FSU. Thinking this looks alot like the beginning of the ATM game, without the comeback.
Emory gets thrown in and we go into the Clemson gameplan. Still no urgency. Mids effective. A good to great play once or twice in the game.
Defense plays as well as it can through mid 3rd qtr; if we're still within 10-17, gates open and we're done.
CoRch HW says post game he's proud and we're back to wERQ.
Amen.
I 100% agree with how the defense lines up on "some" plays makes it hard to break a long run. But it's just "at times". There have been plenty of opportunities for every RB in every game for the to break long runs that they just haven't done.
On the Brashard smith 80 yd Run - IMO it's not how the defense is lines up, it's Smith's speed.
1st Pic - Smith beats the Clemson LB with speed. Any of our RB's likely get caught by the LB and this is a 5-10 yd run.
2nd Pic - Smith outruns the Clemson DB's for another 55 yds. Our RB's likely get caught after 10 more yds.
I could do this for any RB in any game - but vs NC St here's 2 Fletcher runs where he has 1 man to beat.
He can either outrun or make the defender miss, but in both cases the defender makes the tackle at the yellow first down line.
If the OL & play call get the RB 1 on 1 with 1 defender - then that's perfect play calling & execution. You can't ask for more.
It's then on the RB to make a play. And our RB's struggle pretty bad in the open field. It's just an ability/skillset our current RB's don't really have.
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Mario and Dawson are so ******* predictable that it’s embarrassing. You and me aren’t D1 football coaches and see what’s likely going to happen based on this exact same scenery playing out previously.
I wish these guys would plan to come out throwing to set up the run. Mesh concepts, fake tunnel or fake bubble screens. Routes that make the safeties make decisions. Crossing routes, RPO passes, play action.
But we won’t do that. Just line up with 12 personnel and run it and try to use the Clemson game plan which is actually, to me, the dumbest thing we can do because that is excerpt what FSU will be expecting. Clemson game plan.
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Look at that middle backer completely selling out on the run and the QB still has the ball.
Running back leaking out on the fake hand off and going to the right of the QB and having one of the trips left dudes come across the middle of the wide open field would’ve been nice for an easy picture and catch of 7+ yards.
Hurricane23
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One these players need to get on Van Dykes behind, if I was on the team I’d ask him, What are you looking at bro.
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First, that isn't a LB but their Safety who was crashing way too hard on the BS play. Any RB on the roster would have broke that for 30 yards. BS broke it for a ton more because of the speed. Otherwise, the other safety (9) would have caught our other RBs much faster. BS ran North South vs bouncing outside which would of had him get 2-3 yards with 25 crashing.
As for the NCSt photos, you are posting safeties with good angles that haven't over commited. If you want to see a run that could have been broken for 30+, Young didn't give much effort on the first drive letting Battle tackle Fletcher after 5 yards. If he blocks him, Fletcher is off to the races as one safety crashed hard (0) and the other was way out of position (12). This wasn't the only time NCSt over committed and Miami kids missed blocks for big runs.
My bigger issue is when we ran Fletcher into a 6 man front with 5 guys blocking and 2 WR on 1 DB. Presnap LB is in the box and at the snap S was dropping with LB crashing. Of course Young and George both run 5 and 10 yard hitches vs george doing a dig which either opens him up or Young up.
Example:
As for the NCSt photos, you are posting safeties with good angles that haven't over commited. If you want to see a run that could have been broken for 30+, Young didn't give much effort on the first drive letting Battle tackle Fletcher after 5 yards. If he blocks him, Fletcher is off to the races as one safety crashed hard (0) and the other was way out of position (12). This wasn't the only time NCSt over committed and Miami kids missed blocks for big runs.
My bigger issue is when we ran Fletcher into a 6 man front with 5 guys blocking and 2 WR on 1 DB. Presnap LB is in the box and at the snap S was dropping with LB crashing. Of course Young and George both run 5 and 10 yard hitches vs george doing a dig which either opens him up or Young up.
Example:
I 100% agree with you there are plenty of plays where we don't have the correct play called or don't block correctly - and that's not on the RB's.
But IMO saying on the Smith run "Any RB on the roster would have broke that for 30 yds" is overestimating their ability.
Our RB's this year have:
- 279 carries this year. 1 has gone for 30+ yds.
- 170 carries vs P5. 2 have gone for 20+ yds. 0 for 30 yds.
Our RB's simply can't pull away from & outrun defenders. They have plenty other good skillsets - but speed just isn't one of them.
In the case of the BS run, that safety doesn't break towards the flats with a big body at RB and likely sits back a little more vs crashing so hard to the flats.
One of the biggest issues I'm seeing: we are forcing plays. Running into an overloaded box when we should be passing. We are passing into a drop 8 zone with 3 going out. I've said we need to see more BS and CJ touches because they have that sub-11-second speed to change games in one play. Heck, I'd jet-sweep the **** out of BS, CJ, and Ray Ray. I'd also have them run some shoots and wheel routes as running back (fake the chip and get past the LBer who is likely responsible for the flat and has been crashing as a rusher of late). Oregon ran the shoot route a bunch with good success. We are running a swing that puts the RB behind the line vs just past the line (shoot).
Funny thing is Brashard at 196 lbs is bigger than most of our RB's - Parrish (190), Allen (186), CJ (180). He'd have been our 2nd biggest RB in 4 of our 6 P5 games.
I couldn't agree more that I'd like to see more creative ways to get playmakers like BS, CJ. George, RayRay etc. the ball more.
How our RB's are being used in the passing game is pretty frustrating. They're averaging 3.4 yds per reception. We're on track to least amount of receiving yds from RB's in probably 40 years (I haven't checked that stat - but I'd bet it's correct).
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Agree, why are these absent from our execution game day?
Ghandi will tell you Mario. In reality, it is more complex than BRO BALL only because Oregon in 2021 ran a ton of things we don't see at Miami. It is likely a combination of a number of factors one being Mario being overly conservative, two TVD sucking beyond anyones expectations, and three TIME. I'm positive there are more but you get the idea.
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PennsylvaniaCane
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Numbers do tell a story but they don’t tell the whole story. Remove the issue of a QB who has turned into a turnover machine and that impacts most of those stats both offensive and defensive.
Silver King
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You needed one more topic of explanation:
The Intangibles.
Men lie. Women lie, Numbers Don't mean Jack Squat when two of the greatest football teams of all time at their respective levels operate under The Curse of the Orange Bowl.
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Remove 50% of the turnovers and we are 8-1 heading into a big game vs FSU.
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Dawson talked about this in the presser.Always look forward to these post.. We dont have explosive runs, because we dont use our explosive players. Brashard gets a carry behind same line = Explosive run.. Other backs get a ton of carries, nothing.. We are a grind it out, slow pace, tuff n fizical unit. Methodical. Mario said its not about the points but guys pushing the pile.
He said NC St was not a game to put Brashard in the backfield. He knew it was going to be a physical game.
With #10 and #11 coming down hill every other play, I agree with him.