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Josh Pate Mail Bag 10/25

SouthParkCane said:
A bunch of revisionist history happening
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I just dont get it. look it's okay to say it was a down year. Spo has had down years where he'd tell you he didnt coach well even w a mediocre roster. it's not the ned of the world and honestly, who cares what everyone thinks of Mario. if he wins, well all love him. if he fails, we all hate him. the biggest thing is that hes gonna get ample time to prove himself here. his contract means that he will be given that time. if people dont want to have conversations or even arguments, then I guess we could shut down the website and just turn it into a newspaper
 
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Cribby said:
Do you think 8-9 wins was too high of a standard? I mean Vegas had us around that total. The media had Miami as a huge favorite to win the coastal , we easily have the second most talent in the conference . On top of that the schedule was pathetic , It’s Clemson and the rest is average to below average.

The culture is bad but was it so bad that it won 5 out of six last year and was a late meltdown from 6 out of 7?

imo the truth like always is in the middle. We have a culture problem and quitters. There’s also too much talent to be losing to horrible rosters and the coaching has been atrocious. If people want to deny that they’re living in a cult or have cognitive dissonance.

This staff is one of the highest paid in the country and this has been one of the worst ROI I’ve ever seen.
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Couldn't have said it better myself
 
Rellyrell said:
That’s fair, & I guess I should’ve phrased my post better vs. out of shear irritation.

Mario was not my first choice; frankly I was hoping Hugh Freeze would get a shot. I also wished Urban would’ve been line 1. (Oh how I wish Urban would’ve been line 1. lol) However, there became this thick air where “some” fans were openly rooting against Mario, while at UO. To me, hiring Lane, Freeze, Urban, or Mario was OK w/ me, & truth be told, that OP I created would’ve been created for any of those coaches.

i get all that comes w/ being a fan. ****, I’m disappointed in this yr; I had us losing to A&M (road game in an Uber hostile environment), UNC , Clemson, & FSU (b/c I had them as an improved team 3 yrs in the same system). Losing to MTSU & Duke, nah…not on my radar. I knew we would have bumps, set backs, b/c I’m not in love w/ this roster & the Spring Game made me love it worst.

I guess it’s the particular fans that I’ve seen chime in the most & at times looks like they relish in the fact, not the University of Miami is struggling this year, but Mario is, simply b/c they didn’t want him here in the first place. What I’ve come to realize is that whether it’s consciously or subconsciously, but two guys that some segments of this fan base go to great lengths to discredit are Butch & Mario. Maybe it’s b/c how they both left, so maybe there’s still a hint of unresolved resentment, but go to any Butch or Mario thread & u’ll see some of the most lengthy debates.

My only thing was & still is, compartmentalize the frustration this season; stop saying a recruit shouldn’t come here & all this sabotage talk. This program needs a whole make over, and that includes some on the coaching staff. Hopefully we’ll finish out strong w/ a better record than last season.
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@C A N E: Blood how bout u speak ur mind & stop hiding in the shadows my ninja
 
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ItsAUThing.com said:
Yes. This.

The portion of this fan base pointing to the scoreboard, going "See??" regarding the Cristobal hire—half a year in—are the problem. Fact; there are countless people here who actually relish in Miami losing, so they can be "right" about Cristobal.

Either way, it's the first quarter regarding his hiring, so pointing to the scoreboard anytime before 2024-2025 is laughable. Let it play out and stop wasting energy on the conversation.

Same to be said for who could've been hired or other pipe dreams; like this narrative that Cristobal passed over Dorsey for Gattis—as if Kenny was ever coming back to Miami as OC this year, after spending years building his NFL coaching trajectory.

Miami has enough real on-the-field losses to absorb; people need to stop making up coaching losses that were never going to happen.
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The funny thing is, I know if Kiffin was hired here & struggled these first 7 games, a whole slew of excuses by that same segment would fly out. How do I know? B/c they’ve come out to justify his 7-6, 8/5, & 5-5 starts.
 
Genghis Cane said:
The reality is, this program has been a national embarrassment for 20 years.

It’s understandable that the fan base has grown impatient and hyper critical.

But Mario deserves time. He was not in my top 10 choices to replace Diaz, and yet, here we are. It’s not fair to give up on him or the program so early into his tenure. He bleeds orange and green and he’s probably just as angry as us about the losses.

Let him rebuild this program the right way. There are no short cuts when your team has sucked *** for so long.

And yes, of course we could have hired someone like Lane and won some more games in year 1, but Mario is building this for the long haul.

I think, as a fan base, we need to rally around the program and support them the best we can. I know that’s asking a lot, but they need us. Throw year 1 out the window and pray that we demonstrate some progress next year. But for God’s sake, don’t judge him after half a season.

Let’s hope he makes the necessary changes in the offseason, mainly on the offensive side of the ball.
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That's a very rational take and so true, not to mention the fact that we have zero choice based on the investment they decided to make.

Hard to believe he wasn't in your top 10. I had him around 5-6, but truthfully just wanted a financial commitment to the program. (at the time when I wasn't a spoiled brat and couldn't be choosey). There is no hindsight here for me, he wasn't my choice, but hopefully he identifies that he isn't a great coach....rather just a great recruiter.....as I thought. Identifying that goes a long way.
 
Rellyrell said:
@C A N E: Blood how bout u speak ur mind & stop hiding in the shadows my ninja
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Lmao you’re tilting at windmills and writing novels as copium for the fallout of this disastrous season.

No significant amount of fans in any fanbase roots for their program to fail, but nobody’s stopping you from continuing to beat that strawman to death. If any solace is taken, it’s the egg on the face of delusional sunshine pumpers who browbeat any dissenting viewpoints or objective analysis in the off-season.

Nobody relishes in getting our asses kicked in our house by ******* Middle Tennessee or Duke save for our opposing rivals. Hope this helps.

Have a great day.
 
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Three major differences between this year and last year.
  1. This roster is objectively worse. We lost consistent playmakers on offense.
  2. Injury bug. We're banged up on the OL, and that's contributing to issues in the run game.
  3. Lack of execution and turnovers.
For people saying we were good enough to win 5 out of the last 6 games last year, the difference between then and now is that we got the lucky bounces and breaks then. We won 5 out of 7 of our games by an average of four points. That team was on the cusp of 4-8. This year, we've gotten no breaks whatsoever. This team is the greatest momentum-killing team of all time.

Has this season been a disaster? Yes. I said before this season that anything below 8 wins would be a disaster and failure. Mario needs to shake up this staff and take a good look in the mirror. He needs to get rid of Gattis and Ponce. He needs to hit the portal hard and have this roster comprise 2/3 of his guys by fall camp 2023. Long-term, though, I believe he'll turn this mess around.

I think that Miami has gotten very lucky the past few seasons not to go under .500. There were multiple games in 2020 and 2021 that could've gone either way, and we just happened to get some lucky breaks. No such breaks have happened at this point.
 
C A N E said:
Lmao you’re tilting at windmills and writing novels as copium for the fallout of this disastrous season.

No significant amount of fans in any fanbase roots for their program to fail, but nobody’s stopping you from continuing to beat that strawman to death. If any solace is taken, it’s the egg on the face of delusional sunshine pumpers who browbeat any dissenting viewpoints or objective analysis in the off-season.

Nobody relishes in getting our asses kicked in our house by ******* Middle Tennessee or Duke. Hope this helps.

Have a great day.
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Speak for urself, but there’s fa sho a segment of this fan base that relishes in being right. Lastly, my ninja, the last thing I’ve ever been classified as is a Slurper on this board. Lol. If anything, I’m considered more of a mope. Regardless, I’m even keeled, & there’s been way too many period drawers on this board in overreacting vs. understanding chit takes time.

U, too, have a great day & thanks for joining.
 
Rellyrell said:
Speak for urself, but there’s fa sho a segment of this fan base that relishes in being right. Lastly, my ninja, the last thing I’ve ever been classified as is a Slurper on this board. Lol. If anything, I’m considered more of a mope. Regardless, I’m even keeled, & there’s been way too many period drawers on this board in overreacting vs. understanding chit takes time.

U, too, have a great day & thanks for joining.
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Hah well I never called you a “slurper.” You’re just somebody who specifically in this case for some reason keeps getting all worked up about something that’s untrue. It’s bizarre. To to be fair, you’re not the only one dying on this hill.

It’s not complicated. Fans don’t want to see their program fail and don’t take any joy in it, but you can keep beating that drum if you like. What you’re seeing is a manifestation of frustration over a disastrous season heralded by the most highly compensated coaching staff in the conference. It’s the most normal and typical consequence of nearly two decades of poor results. There’s nothing insidious or conspiratorial about fans expressing themselves during the fallout.

If anything, as long as fans remain engaged posting on a board about it, it signals they care as much as ever about the program.

The other side of that coin, is total disengagement or apathy sinking in after years and years of the same. That’s the real worry, not some strange invented imaginary enemy that fans want to see the program fail. That’s just nonsensical.

But no one can or should stop you from making silly baseless assertions to cope. I’ll just keep effortlessly handing out message board reacts.
 
C A N E said:
Hah well I never called you a “slurper.” You’re just somebody who specifically in this case for some reason keeps getting all worked up about something that’s untrue. It’s bizarre. To to be fair, you’re not the only one dying on this hill.

It’s not complicated. Fans don’t want to see their program fail and don’t take any joy in it, but you can keep beating that drum if you like. What you’re seeing is a manifestation of frustration over a disastrous season heralded by the most highly compensated coaching staff in the conference. It’s the most normal and typical consequence of nearly two decades of poor results. There’s nothing insidious or conspiratorial about fans expressing themselves during the fallout.

If anything, as long as fans remain engaged posting on a board about it, it signals they care as much as ever about the program.

The other side of that coin, is total disengagement or apathy sinking in after years and years of the same. That’s the real worry, not some strange invented imaginary enemy that fans want to see the program fail. That’s just nonsensical.

But no one can or should stop you from making silly baseless assertions to cope. I’ll just keep effortlessly handing out message board reacts.
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I get that, & understand it. I’ve been riding & lately dying w/ this squad for coming up 35 yrs this November.

I cautioned us on a rocky season this yr. Mario FIU vs. Mario UO is not the same coach, nor is Coach K Army vs Coach K Duke or Saban MSU vs. Saban LSU. My whole point is be frustrated, angry, apathetic, whatever, but calling for a guy’s head already…nah, there’s too many examples of great coaches failing yr 1 at a new school. Again, I ain’t excusing MTSU or Duke at all, but at the same time, I’m not going to bring out the pitch fork & torch just yet. I expected mishaps & struggles this yr. I’ve been very consistent w/ that, along w/ being consistent that losing to MTSU & Duke caught me off guard.

I fully expect a change in production next season, & I still expect to land a legit class this season. If we don’t see that; I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong & a pitch fork that’s been tucked away in my barn yard will be coming out.
 
crossover22[]_[] said:
Its a weird thought to have. Its not true at all. Alot of people are tired of the off-season hype with no results to back it up.

Like you said. Go back to 17 and read threads. Everyone was thinking possible playoffs. Look at the ND game. The entire fanbase was excited and thought we were on the way back.
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Having a critical eye for things doesn't automatically make someone a hater. In 2017, it's fair to say the team was a couple miracle plays away from being an 8 win team. However, Richts coaching generally elevated the talent (even the GT onside kick - I disagreed with but I can also see why he'd take the risk). I gave Richt a lot of credit for how he changed his entire approach to the offense after losing Walton for the season. We all knew that Richt was going to run the offense through Walton. I think he was going to pound the rock and ask very little of Rosier. Once Walton went down, he had a couple unproven backs (who knew Homer was a NFL talent?) and Richt spread the ball around more. I think Waltons injury actually helped UM because Richt adjusted and made the offense more dynamic. The result of good coaching was that a 8 win team became a 10 win team. And by 8 win team I mean that given the talent on the roster, that would probably be the record if coached by an average HC.

I'm going to steal a baseball stat: Win Above Replacement (WAR) for the coach. In 2017, Richt was +2. An average coach - say David Cutcliffe type, wins 7-8 games with the team.

Now in 2018, Richt was in a bad way. His illness was clearly affecting him. He wasn't able to gameplan or put in time he did before and elevate the team above the talent. So the result was the record ended up basically reflecting the talent. Richts WAR was 0.

Diazs WAR in 2019 was - 2. He significantly underperformed. An average coach easily finishes with 8 wins against that weak schedule. In 2020, his WAR was 0. The record ended up being about equal to where the talent was. 8 wins. In 2021, Diaz's WAR was -1. Just below average. So his WAR over 3 years was -2,0,-1. Clearly overall a below average coach and he deserved to get fired.

Even the most ardent Cristobal defender is saying that the talent on this roster is closer to 8 wins than 10 wins, so expecting an ACC coastal title was unrealistic. OK, so let's go with that 8 win number since it is perfectly in line with the WAR. Cristobal may only win 5. That means his WAR in his 1st year would be -3. That would be worse than even Diaz in his worst year (-2). So the criticism is warranted.

Will Cristobal ever be able to win 10 games? It's certainly possible. But if he stacks the talent that also means the WAR moves accordingly. He could win 10 but still have a WAR of -1 because an average coach would have been able to win 11 games with the talent on the roster. It doesn't look like Cristobal, at any point in his career, has had a WAR above +1. Even that 12 win Oregon team, which was loaded with talent thanks to Mario's recruiting , is at least an 11 win team with an average coach.

In a lot of ways, Cristobal is the anti Richt. Richt took an 8 win team, adjusted to the talent, and elevated them to 10 wins. Cristobal is taking an 8 win team and may only win 5. The hope (and plan) is for Cristobal to stack so much talent and make it so that even an average coach wins 11 with the roster. He's done that before so it's possible. However, to this point, almost all the criticism about Cristobal is valid - he has rarely, if ever, shown the ability to elevate the team above its talent level through good coaching. And at 8 million per year, I think it's fair to question the ROI right now .
 
On paper, this is a home run of a staff, but there are a couple 5-star busts on the staff as well. It's going to need to be addressed in the offseason, if there's no sign of improvement, now until the end of the season. This team has enough talent and really should not have lost a game this year. It's on the players and the coaches. Coaches need to adjust to the talent they have. If they don't/can't, then changes need to be made. Cristobal will get the players. It's looking like the more important question is will he pull the trigger and get the right coaches/coordinators?
 
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