Canegrad89
Recruit
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2017
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- 1,149
According to footballstudyhall.com, the odds of winning when your turnover margin is minus 4 are about 7%. We've been living in the 3-5 turnover range for the last four ACC games started by TVD & we have a 1-3 record in those. TVD had three INTs & a fumble against NC State. He’s had ten (10) INTs & two fumbles (12 TOs) in the last 4 games.
Based on probabilities & CFB data, we have virtually no chance of winning any remaining games this season, if we continue to turn the ball over at that rate. Starting TVD in his current form doesn't maximize the odds of winning due to his experience or arm talent (as many have said) but rather it virtually guarantees a loss (93%+ probability of a loss actually). We lost 20-6 against NC State despite a really good performance by the D, the OL & Fletcher. We’re literally throwing games away due to the massive # of TOs. We dominated GT (450 vs 250 yds & had over 35 mins of T.O.P.) but lost the game due to 3 INTs, one fumble & one botched call (shown as two fumbles in the official stats). Despite dominating the game in virtually every single facet, we “lost” due to a TO margin of -3 (as we had five & they had two).
According to TruMedia, there are ~12.0 possessions/game for each CFB team in '23. You can't expect to win with 3.0-5.0 TO (if 33.3%-41.7% of your possessions end prematurely with a TO). With 5 TO, you’ll likely end up with 7.0 remaining scoring opps while the opponent will likely have 15.0-17.0 scoring opps. The odds are clearly incredibly low of winning in that scenario. The odds of winning are 0.00% unless your opponent also has one or more TO.
Emory has exhibited tremendous poise. He got a signature win in his first game against Clemson. The whole game against Clemson was clean & under control on both sides of the ball. We can be competitive against FSU (and potentially even win), if Emory starts. Our OL is stout & will protect him (just as they did against Clemson's talented DL). We'll get boatraced if TVD starts and we commit 2+ turnovers (it will get out of hand quickly). Emory is really good at short & intermediate throws due to his poise, mechanics, vision, and the touch he puts on the ball. Even on checkdowns, TVD struggles with sidearm throws being batted down & grounders (those short throws don't appear to be his forté as he tends to drive the ball fairly low & hard when he throws it). TVD was effectively asked to be a game manager against NC State & check the ball down more often…and he still had four (4) turnovers (3 INTs and a fumble).
We need to win now for recruiting, the fan base, team morale, and the overall good of the program. It’s likely critical to the trajectory of Mario’s tenure. He badly needs to finish this recruiting cycle strong. There are solutions on the current roster. Start Emory & give FSU fits with a bunch of touches by Brashard & Chris Johnson (both of whom need to become household names in this game). Forget all the reasons to limit their touches or hold these guys out of the game (such as a redshirt for CJ as he won’t burn it playing in this game). Run the ball with Fletcher, Brashard, & CJ. Take CJ out on obvious passing downs (if his pass pro skills aren’t that great). He's a potential superstar in the making & can cause major problems for FSU with his quick feet, cuts, & elite top end speed. Mix in a series or two for Jacurri who can gash them with his legs & mix in a couple of his favorite high % throws to keep FSU off balance. Emory can hurt them with his precision passing game. Our offense badly needs some diversity & some explosives. Winning this game should be a team effort (so QB1 doesn’t have to do too much).
Dawson said in last week’s presser that he prefers to let his QB work through tough times (instead of switching QBs). When he said that, it appeared to spell major trouble for the rest of the season. Thankfully in yesterday’s presser he seemed to soften his stance & start talking about “tipping points” when players are struggling. This recruiting class is critical to Mario’s tenure. Got to continue building on last year’s class (which was loaded with impact players). The staff has quite a bit of work to do to get some whales into this recruiting class. A 6-6 record ain’t it when trying to attract impact players. Emory absolutely can go 4-0 or 3-1 in the last four games (including a bowl game). We have a great OL & a very good defense. All we need is a game manager at QB that sees the field well, protects the football, and distributes it effectively to his playmakers. That & some explosives from players like Brashard & CJ could make all the difference.
The team is being held back by far too many turnovers. Tyler has had plenty of opportunities over the course of three seasons. His record in ACC play is 7-10 (with five of those wins coming two years ago in ’21). That’s a 41% win % in ACC play (below average). We’ll lose all four of the remaining games (including the bowl), if we continue to commit so many turnovers. It’s time for a change. Certain players on the Leadership Council should speak respectfully with the coaches to effect change, if a change hasn’t already been announced privately to them.
Based on probabilities & CFB data, we have virtually no chance of winning any remaining games this season, if we continue to turn the ball over at that rate. Starting TVD in his current form doesn't maximize the odds of winning due to his experience or arm talent (as many have said) but rather it virtually guarantees a loss (93%+ probability of a loss actually). We lost 20-6 against NC State despite a really good performance by the D, the OL & Fletcher. We’re literally throwing games away due to the massive # of TOs. We dominated GT (450 vs 250 yds & had over 35 mins of T.O.P.) but lost the game due to 3 INTs, one fumble & one botched call (shown as two fumbles in the official stats). Despite dominating the game in virtually every single facet, we “lost” due to a TO margin of -3 (as we had five & they had two).
According to TruMedia, there are ~12.0 possessions/game for each CFB team in '23. You can't expect to win with 3.0-5.0 TO (if 33.3%-41.7% of your possessions end prematurely with a TO). With 5 TO, you’ll likely end up with 7.0 remaining scoring opps while the opponent will likely have 15.0-17.0 scoring opps. The odds are clearly incredibly low of winning in that scenario. The odds of winning are 0.00% unless your opponent also has one or more TO.
Emory has exhibited tremendous poise. He got a signature win in his first game against Clemson. The whole game against Clemson was clean & under control on both sides of the ball. We can be competitive against FSU (and potentially even win), if Emory starts. Our OL is stout & will protect him (just as they did against Clemson's talented DL). We'll get boatraced if TVD starts and we commit 2+ turnovers (it will get out of hand quickly). Emory is really good at short & intermediate throws due to his poise, mechanics, vision, and the touch he puts on the ball. Even on checkdowns, TVD struggles with sidearm throws being batted down & grounders (those short throws don't appear to be his forté as he tends to drive the ball fairly low & hard when he throws it). TVD was effectively asked to be a game manager against NC State & check the ball down more often…and he still had four (4) turnovers (3 INTs and a fumble).
We need to win now for recruiting, the fan base, team morale, and the overall good of the program. It’s likely critical to the trajectory of Mario’s tenure. He badly needs to finish this recruiting cycle strong. There are solutions on the current roster. Start Emory & give FSU fits with a bunch of touches by Brashard & Chris Johnson (both of whom need to become household names in this game). Forget all the reasons to limit their touches or hold these guys out of the game (such as a redshirt for CJ as he won’t burn it playing in this game). Run the ball with Fletcher, Brashard, & CJ. Take CJ out on obvious passing downs (if his pass pro skills aren’t that great). He's a potential superstar in the making & can cause major problems for FSU with his quick feet, cuts, & elite top end speed. Mix in a series or two for Jacurri who can gash them with his legs & mix in a couple of his favorite high % throws to keep FSU off balance. Emory can hurt them with his precision passing game. Our offense badly needs some diversity & some explosives. Winning this game should be a team effort (so QB1 doesn’t have to do too much).
Dawson said in last week’s presser that he prefers to let his QB work through tough times (instead of switching QBs). When he said that, it appeared to spell major trouble for the rest of the season. Thankfully in yesterday’s presser he seemed to soften his stance & start talking about “tipping points” when players are struggling. This recruiting class is critical to Mario’s tenure. Got to continue building on last year’s class (which was loaded with impact players). The staff has quite a bit of work to do to get some whales into this recruiting class. A 6-6 record ain’t it when trying to attract impact players. Emory absolutely can go 4-0 or 3-1 in the last four games (including a bowl game). We have a great OL & a very good defense. All we need is a game manager at QB that sees the field well, protects the football, and distributes it effectively to his playmakers. That & some explosives from players like Brashard & CJ could make all the difference.
The team is being held back by far too many turnovers. Tyler has had plenty of opportunities over the course of three seasons. His record in ACC play is 7-10 (with five of those wins coming two years ago in ’21). That’s a 41% win % in ACC play (below average). We’ll lose all four of the remaining games (including the bowl), if we continue to commit so many turnovers. It’s time for a change. Certain players on the Leadership Council should speak respectfully with the coaches to effect change, if a change hasn’t already been announced privately to them.
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