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ITS GAMBLING TIME

Canestomp said:
@joeyhh owes us a Wet Bulb forecast--the timing of which has been a mystery no longer. I got bored and threw the 2021 seasonal post dates for JoeyHH forecasts in R along with kickoff times. On average, Joeyhh provides his forecast 1.583 days before kickoff. I threw those parameters into a normal and poisson distribution and computed the probabilities Joeyhh will post a "Gameday Weather" thread.

17.5% probability that thread would have been posted by 3:30pm today.
57.0% probability that thread will be posted by midnight tonight.
90.5% probability that thread will be posted by tomorrow 3:30pm.
99.2% probability that thread will be posted by midnight tomorrow night.

Do what you will with this information.


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Can you explain what any of this means to us degenerates
 
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Canestomp said:
@joeyhh owes us a Wet Bulb forecast--the timing of which has been a mystery no longer. I got bored and threw the 2021 seasonal post dates for JoeyHH forecasts in R along with kickoff times. On average, Joeyhh provides his forecast 1.583 days before kickoff. I threw those parameters into a normal and poisson distribution and computed the probabilities Joeyhh will post a "Gameday Weather" thread.

17.5% probability that thread would have been posted by 3:30pm today.
57.0% probability that thread will be posted by midnight tonight.
90.5% probability that thread will be posted by tomorrow 3:30pm.
99.2% probability that thread will be posted by midnight tomorrow night.

Do what you will with this information.
Click to expand...
Dude I did well in statistics in college but I've never even heard of a Poisson distribution, you just blew my mind.
 
Canedog said:
Purdue plus 3.5.
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Love Purdue +3.5 at home. Their QB is a 5th yr SR that had a really good season last year, they finished strong. Really don't know much on Ped St.

WVU was really unpredictable last year, but seems like a lot of points for Pitt to give after losing some key players.

That's the extent of my analysis.
 
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plantcity3 said:
Can you explain what any of this means to us degenerates
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Sure.

Assuming you are familiar with the zeal with which Joeyhh's creates Wet Bulb Gameday Weather threads, I simply wanted to calculate the likelihood of when we could expect to see his forecast thread.

From data, I was able to determine that we will have approximately a 57% chance of getting the wet bulb forecast sometime tonight before midnight. That number climbs quickly to 99.2% by tomorrow night midnight. Only one time did we have to wait until actual gameday to receive the forecast; when we hosted NCSU on October 23, 2021 and received it 8 hours prior to kickoff. All things held constant; I measure the probability of that occurring again anytime this year at 1.79%.
 
Canestomp said:
Sure.

Assuming you are familiar with the zeal with which Joeyhh's creates Wet Bulb Gameday Weather threads, I simply wanted to calculate the likelihood of when we could expect to see his forecast thread.

From data, I was able to determine that we will have approximately a 57% chance of getting the wet bulb forecast sometime tonight before midnight. That number climbs quickly to 99.2% by tomorrow night midnight. Only one time did we have to wait until actual gameday to receive the forecast; when we hosted NCSU on October 23, 2021 and received it 8 hours prior to kickoff. All things held constant; I measure the probability of that occurring again anytime this year at 1.79%.
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Thanks. I'm not familiar with any of it but a quick google search told me wet bulb temp is the heat stress in sunlight. Thats the type of things I want to get into when I decide to take this gambling serious and really up my bet amounts
 
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**** Penn State. **** Penn State. **** Penn State. That is all. Happy gambling boys.
 
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Please keep this thread going..I'm up $500 on the bookie off of my first parlay last week.
 
Futures I’m on:

- Jaxon Smith Nijgba Over 1200.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Miami to win the Coastal (+150)
- Oregon St over 5.5 wins (-140, this soared to 6.5 so don’t play that)
- Houston to make the AAC Champ game (-135, they don’t have to play UCF or Cinci, huge advantage)
- Utah over 8.5 wins (-130)
- Kentucky Under 8 wins (-110)

Also cashing a special on Saturday I requested on Bovada back in November: Mario Cristobal to be the next head coach of the University of Miami (+350) 😁 but they won’t cash it until he is physically on the sidelines game one.

Week 1 Plays (some are completed but I dropped them in another thread):

- Penn St -3 (-135)
- Spencer Sanders over 250.5 yds passing (-125)
- Louisville -3 (-130)
- Michigan St -12.5 1H (-115)
- Houston -3 (-120)
- LSU -2.5 (-110), locked that in back in July

Will post some more / props when they start coming out. If anyone has any questions or curious as to the matchups, happy to discuss at length.
 
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