forums

'It worries me how much I like [Miami]', "The Bear" Chris Fallica joins Hurricade 2025

View as article
Sebastian Font

Sebastian Font

Junior
Premium
Joined
Oct 2, 2024
Messages
1,715


"The Bear", Chris Fallica, joined CanesInSight's 2025 Hurricade yesterday afternoon and used his betting expertise to break down MHere's what he had to say:

On the narrative of the dropoff from Riley Leonard to CJ Carr:

 Anytime you've got an experienced quarterback who had been through the wars and is got some mobility. I like that type of player. I don't think Riley Leonard got nearly the credit that he deserved in that Notre Dame offense, Lester. I think...

Continue reading...
 
Advertisement
DMoney said:
The CJ Carr stuff in here caused me to raise my eyebrow. Brett McMurphy said similar.
Click to expand...

Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
Click to expand...
Agree 100% it is therefore absolutely crucial that we don't beat ourselves with turnovers and dumb penalties.
 
FrancisSawyer said:
Agree 100% hence it is absolutely crucial that we don't beat ourselves with turnovers and dumb penalties.
Click to expand...

For sure. I think both teams understand that. There's a reason this total started at 53 and is down to 49.5. I don't think either team is going to be willing to completely go insane on offense and feel they need to score 40 to win.

As I've said all week, I think first team to 24 gets it done. I expect an ugly game at times, some sloppiness (Beck still learning the receivers with no spring/limited summer, Carr being gun-shy and conservative, first game stuff), and physicality on both fronts. I'm with you though, you can really say this about any football game, turnovers matter maybe more than anything else, but in a game like this that's likely going to be somewhat low-scoring compared to most CFB games, don't give them anything easy. If they go 70+ yards on you for scores, tip your cap. Don't give them the ball inside your own 30 or 40 and gift them points. They're probably going to be hard to come by.
 
TooColdToHold said:
I listen to a lot of national podcasts and most have hinted that Carr was named the starter for political reasons.
Click to expand...

I think that's fair and probably likely, but it's only possible because Minchey stinks too.

As much "politics" as they might have been, if Minchey was lights-out and Carr sucked, Minchey would be starting. Who cares if Carr is ****ed or boosters are ****ed, we have a guy much better leading the team. We're good. And he's young too.

But when they both suck, then yeah, may as well give the more heralded kid the nod to not **** everyone off.

I really think both these kids were *** all camp, and the deciding factor was CJ Carr's name. But either way, neither kid is coming in here and lighting us up. Heatherman better be licking his chops right now, every **** exotic you got better be thrown at this kid. I trust our corners to cover their receivers, as improved as they likely are, for a few seconds. Fields and these other kids aren't just beating all our corners off the snap like drums. We're going to make it difficult. And while that's going on, pressure the **** out of this kid, confuse him, show him things he's never seen, drop a DT into coverage and bring the nickel, bring both backers through the A-gap, rush 8 on 3rd and long, have this kid's head spinning like the exorcist.
 
Advertisement
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
Click to expand...
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!
 
@OrangeBowlMagic

You mentioned the drop-off from Al Golden to Chris Ash and I agree. However there are some who say that the difference between the two is negligible because both are running Freeman's defense. What is your perspective on that?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
Click to expand...
Are we saying there is going be a Carr crash???

That Freeman is driving wreckless??

DEIW3lvLWJ5Cw.gif
 
Last edited:
FrancisSawyer said:
@OrangeBowlMagic

You mentioned the drop-off from Al Golden to Chris Ash and I agree. However there are some who say that the difference between the two is negligible because both are running Freeman's defense. What is your perspective on that?
Click to expand...

My perspective is it's Freeman's defense, no doubt about it. And his fingerprints are all over game-planning. But he doesn't call the plays, Ash does (and Golden did). So Freeman is very involved, but Al had those dudes in the right spots almost every snap. Chris Ash hasn't coordinated a defense since 2020.

When it's 3rd and 5 late in the 3rd quarter and we're going tempo, it's Ash's show. I feel a lot better about that than I would were it Al's.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I think that's fair and probably likely, but it's only possible because Minchey stinks too.

As much "politics" as they might have been, if Minchey was lights-out and Carr sucked, Minchey would be starting. Who cares if Carr is ****ed or boosters are ****ed, we have a guy much better leading the team. We're good. And he's young too.

But when they both suck, then yeah, may as well give the more heralded kid the nod to not **** everyone off.

I really think both these kids were *** all camp, and the deciding factor was CJ Carr's name. But either way, neither kid is coming in here and lighting us up. Heatherman better be licking his chops right now, every **** exotic you got better be thrown at this kid. I trust our corners to cover their receivers, as improved as they likely are, for a few seconds. Fields and these other kids aren't just beating all our corners off the snap like drums. We're going to make it difficult. And while that's going on, pressure the **** out of this kid, confuse him, show him things he's never seen, drop a DT into coverage and bring the nickel, bring both backers through the A-gap, rush 8 on 3rd and long, have this kid's head spinning like the exorcist.
Click to expand...
I don't see it with their run game either. ND fans have been beating their chest "No way Miami stops Love" Multiple times last year Love got stuffed all game. Georgia Tech, Louisville. **** even Navy and Virginia had him contained until he broke off a 50+ yarder. He didn't have a single game last year where he ran for 100+ and didnt have a 50+ yard run. Of course you have to give him credit for hitting those home runs, but let's not act like he's getting 6+ yards every touch. Take away his homeruns and he averages like 4 YPC. Relying on him hitting homeruns is like relying on your defense to get turnovers. Too fluky. Not to mention he was a complete non factor in their big games last year besides A&M.
 
Braduhley said:
I don't see it with their run game either. ND fans have been beating their chest "No way Miami stops Love" Multiple times last year Love got stuffed all game. Georgia Tech, Louisville. **** even Navy and Virginia had him contained until he broke off a 50+ yarder. He didn't have a single game last year where he ran for 100+ and didnt have a 50+ yard run. Of course you have to give him credit for hitting those home runs, but let's not act like he's getting 6+ yards every touch. Take away his homeruns and he averages like 4 YPC. Relying on him hitting homeruns is like relying on your defense to get turnovers. Too fluky. Not to mention he was a complete non factor in their big games last year besides A&M.
Click to expand...

Gotta disagree here.

Love is a very, very good player. I hate when people do the "if you take away this, player X isn't good". I know you kinda caveated it, but still. If you don't let Barry Bonds hit homeruns, he's not a great player. Uhhhhh.

Also, he was hurt a lot of the year last year. I'm not saying he's Barry Sanders, but the dude rips off 50 yard runs a lot because he's really ******* good. And their line gives him a couple opportunities a game to get to the 2nd level at full speed. It's going to happen against us. Hopefully not a bunch, but at least a couple times we're going to have a shot at this kid in the open field, and one defender is going to be the difference between a 10 yard gain and a 50 yard gain. Gotta get him on the ground. But I'm not going to **** on him, he's a fantastic player and he's going to make plays against us. We just gotta hopefully limit those explosives, like we're both saying. One way to do that is to penetrate quickly off the snap, which is something Heatherman preaches.

They're nowhere near the same player, but all we heard all week in 2017 was how much Josh Adams was going to run the ball down our throat. Problem for them was, he was getting hit in the backfield every time he touched the ball. We'll be cooking with gas if we can do similar to Love. But buddy is an elite back, make no mistake.
 
Advertisement
Their offense wasn’t that good last year with an experienced QB and an elite RB. Why do people think it’ll be good this year with a QB who’s never played CFB?

Like I said in the other thread, if their offense puts it on us, it’s time to reevaluate our expectations of how good Miami is and what this season will be.
 
How many times have we seen a team tout their best player as the reason they were going to win? The simple fact is that if you're pointing to a single person, you know deep down that you don't have a complete team. Love is a great player, but one great player can't carry an offense.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Gotta disagree here.

Love is a very, very good player. I hate when people do the "if you take away this, player X isn't good". I know you kinda caveated it, but still. If you don't let Barry Bonds hit homeruns, he's not a great player. Uhhhhh.

Also, he was hurt a lot of the year last year. I'm not saying he's Barry Sanders, but the dude rips off 50 yard runs a lot because he's really ******* good. And their line gives him a couple opportunities a game to get to the 2nd level at full speed. It's going to happen against us. Hopefully not a bunch, but at least a couple times we're going to have a shot at this kid in the open field, and one defender is going to be the difference between a 10 yard gain and a 50 yard gain. Gotta get him on the ground. But I'm not going to **** on him, he's a fantastic player and he's going to make plays against us. We just gotta hopefully limit those explosives, like we're both saying. One way to do that is to penetrate quickly off the snap, which is something Heatherman preaches.

They're nowhere near the same player, but all we heard all week in 2017 was how much Josh Adams was going to run the ball down our throat. Problem for them was, he was getting hit in the backfield every time he touched the ball. We'll be cooking with gas if we can do similar to Love. But buddy is an elite back, make no mistake.
Click to expand...
I never said he wasn't a great player, but the undisputed #1 RB in cfb? Yeah nah. That's like saying a safety is a All American and the best in the country cause he managed to get 10 INTs in the span of 3 games but none the rest of the year. It's not sustainable. I saw Love completely shutdown and be a non factor on multiple occasions last year against inferior competition. And if i remember right he was healthy most of last year, he got injured during their season finale and again in the playoffs. I know that injuries can happen to anyone, but if you're a RB who is injury prone, that affects how you should be viewed as a RB imo.
 
Beck vs Carr is huge !

Beck will make most every read on the ND Defence. Carr will not do the same for ND. Result: Carr is more likely to get sacked/fumble/throw a pick

Beck will have better pocket presence. He's been punched in the mouth before. Let's see how Carr reacts. He could panic or hold on too long which Beck is less likely to do.

The great Lou Holtz ,who we all love ,said it himself " When picking the winning team, the first thing you do is ask "Who has the better QB" Advantage Miami.
 
Back
Top