forums

Is the glass half-full, or half-empty?

Advertisement
hoops156 said:
its reality. we escaped a lot of this season if not for cam. even three blind mice can see that we are easily a 500 team with no cam.
Click to expand...
500 team w no Cam this year. Check dat scheddy for next.
Been a 6-6 guy, but am in 4-8 land rn, even days after.
 
mirvin88 said:
The old Bobby Bowden adage when he was building a program was "First you lose big, then you lose small, then you win small, then you win big". In 2022, we lost big. In 2023, we lost small. In 2024, we won small, sort of. 10 wins overall, but pulled some out by the skin of our *** (Cal, VT). Can we parlay this into winning big in 2025?



This isn’t the 1800s any longer. A HC doesn’t need 4 years to turn a program around with the portal.
Click to expand...
💯

Before Bowden, 3-8
Bowden year 1, 5-6
Bowden year 2, 10-2

That first you lose big then blah blah blah BS that everyone clings to for Mario is just a genial old guy being friendly and genial. It didn't even apply to him building FSU. Just an old guy saying nice things to give people the warm and fuzzies.
@OrangeBowlMagic
 
Go Canes!! said:
Can you provide any metric to back this assertion?

Or are you just flying by the seat of your pants with this claim ?
Click to expand...
Ok let's look at three teams that lost two games this year: Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio St and compare them to Miami.

Georgia lost to #13 Alabama and #14 Ole Miss.
They also BEAT #12 Clemson, #3 Texas and #8 Tennessee

Tennessee lost to unranked Arkansas and #7 Georgia
They also BEAT #13 Alabama

Ohio State lost to #1 Oregon and unranked Michigan
They also BEAT #4 Penn St and #10 Indiana



Miami lost to unranked Georgia Tech and unranked Syracuse
Miami beat no ranked teams



Comparing Miami to other 2 loss teams at the higher levels of college football is ridiculous. We lost 2 games with a weak *** schedule while the teams above lost two games to much tougher schedules.

*I'm going by current rankings, which is what ultimately matters.
 
Advertisement
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I think the truth, in almost all aspects of life, usually lies somewhere in the middle. But I do think there are very valid discussion points if you wanted to go full, 100% sunshine pumper or full, 100% mope. So, as we close the regular season in 2024, and year 3 of Mario's regime, where do you stand in terms of this season, and the direction of the program? I tried to lay out some bullet points as far as what I feel would be optimism and pessimism around the program. So what do you think? Is the glass half-full, or half-empty?

Because I try to be an optimistic person in life (being miserable and negative all the time is legitimately bad for your health, by the way), let's start there:

- We finished the season 10-2. Bottom line, many people say you are what your record says you are, so we are 10-2. Mario won 5 games in Year 1, 7 games in Year 2, and 10 games in Year 3. That is CLEAR and obvious progression.

- We absolutely smashed UiF and FSU this year. We had lost to FSU 3 years in a row, one of those years losing 45-3. We beat the 2 of them by a combined score of 77-31, and 14 of those points surrendered with in total garbage time with kids pulled from the stands playing. We have to feel good about being clearly ahead of both of those programs currently, and yes I'm aware of what UiF is doing currently. I don't care. Being in that stadium on 8/31 in the middle of the bull gator section was genuinely one of the best days of my life, and I'll remember it forever.

- The old Bobby Bowden adage when he was building a program was "First you lose big, then you lose small, then you win small, then you win big". In 2022, we lost big. In 2023, we lost small. In 2024, we won small, sort of. 10 wins overall, but pulled some out by the skin of our *** (Cal, VT). Can we parlay this into winning big in 2025?

- We had the #1 offense in America by MANY metrics. One of the mope points about Mario was that he was a QB killer. He "meddled" in the offense (ridiculous, but I digress). He was a caveman. All of those narratives were crushed this season. Cam Ward will be in NYC in 12 days for a Heisman presentation. Our offense was high-flying, big play, anything but "Bro-style". We should be able to convince a very good quarterback to come here, both in HS recruiting and in the portal.

- We have recruited the best back to back classes in program history, or at least close to it, at worst. The close of 2025 is still up in the air, but Mario's 2023 and 2024 classes were EXCELLENT, and we should have a solid backbone of good players going forward.

- Mario's gameday coaching was, to me, very much improved this year. I know the FG decision on Saturday was ridiculed, and likely deservedly so, but I thought he was MUCH more aggressive than ever before. He went for it on 4th and 1 multiple times deep in our own territory, something he'd have NEVER done in his Oregon tenure, no matter what. There were very few completely egregious time management errors like there have been in the past. We still use timeouts at times when we shouldn't, but I didn't think his overall gameday performances were as deplorable as years past. He's never going to be great here, we just need him to not cost us games, and I didn't think he did. Again, for me personally, I like my coaches to be aggressive. If you die with the pedal down, I can live with that. Just don't be clueless or scared. I didn't think he was this year, which was a very welcomed change. He's clearly learning/adapting.

- I thought the overall coaching on offense was very good. Think back to years past, and then this year. We had very few botched snaps, illegal formations, broken plays with guys going the wrong way, confusion, general unpreparedness. Was it 2022 when we had the 2 guys smash into each other in the backfield and they tackles themselves for about a 10 yard loss? That **** is embarrassing. I thought the operation was much more efficient. The kicking game was flawless. Very few pre-snap penalties on offense. We were heavily penalized overall, but I thought most of them were at least aggressive and not braindead (except for how we ended the Syracuse game, with 2 lobotomy patients getting an unsportsmanlike and offsides).

- At the end of the day, the team is significantly better today than it was when he got here. Not good enough, but it's absolutely improved. When we stop improving, I think it's time for panic. We went from 5 to 7 to 10 wins. That's improvement. Now where do we go from here?

I can list a few more things, but I think this is a good overarching, macro start. Let's move on to things that I think we can point to if we want to have pessimism and look at the glass as half-empty

- We still didn't win the ACC, something we've never done in 20 years, and we didn't even make the championship game. Again.

- We lost 2 more games as double-digit favorites, and Mario has now done that 5 times in his career here, more than any other program in America. We are 4-9 in November/December since 2022. This has been a Mario bug-a-boo for a while, losing games as a big favorite, and he did it twice again this year, to GT and Syracuse. Both were one-score games on the road, but the point remains.

- The defense was....holy christ I can't even describe it accurately. The worst we have had here in a LONG time, and is beyond any comprehension. This was a capital F failure, in permanent ink. It starts with Mario...being this devoid of talent, especially in the back 7, in Year 3 is completely unacceptable. But, in line with the same discussion we've had here for YEARS now, yes the talent is not great, but it's certainly better than "worst in the conference", which is absolutely a discussion. So, Mario and his staff failed the talent acquisition piece. And then Guidry and his staff took the talent they do have and completely diarrhea'd in the bed with it. If we just have an average defense, this is likely a 12-0 team. Just average. If you pair the ~50th best defense in America with the #1 offense, you have a really good team. Our defense is markedly worse, and it's going to cause us to waste the best offense we've ever had. Guidry will clearly be fired, and deservedly so. I can't really justify anyone on that side of the ball keeping their jobs, but of course he's not going to fire every single defensive coach. But being THAT bad is absolutely a fireable offense, and Guidry will be packing his bags soon, along with at least 1-2 other coaches on defense.

- Special teams sucked ***, again. Borregales is a pure stud, but we have nobody to return kicks, nobody to return punts, and we can't cover a kickoff to save our lives. Totally unacceptable at a school like this with what should be a roster full of elite athletes. Hire a full-time special teams coach, yesterday.

- More on the defense, and as I lauded the offensive coaching above, I need to blast the defensive preparation. We looked like we didn't even practice on defense in the beginning of games. Way too often we heard "they did something they hadn't shown before". Bull****. How bout we show something we haven't ever shown? Why are we always the one on our heels to start games? Plus the communication in games was beyond dog ****, every single week. Multiple plays every single game where nobody has any idea what they're doing, and the offense has our kid's brains in a blender. Unacceptable.

- We continue to be a punching bag for other teams to do things they've never done in their history. GT has been playing football since the 1800s. They had the 2nd longest drive they've ever had in their history against us. Syracuse has never come from 21 points behind to win a game in their history. They did it to us.

- We went "all-in" on this season, with a multi-million dollar quarterback and a ~$20M roster, and still couldn't win the ACC. We expect to still be a big player in the NIL game, and I trust Mario and his staff to recruit, but this was Year 3, with your nuts on the table from a financial standpoint. And we still didn't get it done.

Overall, to me, all summer I said 10-2 or bust. I started to move really towards 11-1 once the roster finalized and I looked deeply at the schedule. But I had a few goals:

1. Win 10+ games.....check
2. Beat the gator and fsu.....check
3. Win the ACC......nope
4. Make the playoff......likely nope

So, all in all, when I step back and really digest this thing, I'm going to be somewhat torn, I think. I'm happy with the progress. I had a TON of fun the past 3 months. But, we wasted another opportunity, and I'm not entirely sure where we go from here. With recruiting the way it's been, we should have a really talented team next year, and we're going to be aggressive in the portal. But we're going to be hiring a new DC, and that will likely cost us some defensive recruits for this class.

What did I miss? Let me know what you guys think that are making you feel somewhat optimistic and/or pessimistic both about this season, and the future.
Click to expand...
Very good assessment OBM, and I think the glass is neutral - neither, because we are both depending on how you look at our future.

I think 10-2 with the offensive numbers we put up is an achievement that cannot be ignored. The stout OL and all of the skill position talent Mario has amassed makes it half full. He’s definitely got some good building blocks there.

But the glass is half empty because he’s going to have to try to find a Cam replacement and get his young DL, LBs and DBs to step up - a lot!

It was glaringly apparent that the O is ahead of the D in terms of development. Mario won’t be able to rely on a +40 point offense to bail him out next year. That D is going to have hold its weight.

Not sure what happened with Guidry this season, but the D regressed almost week to week save for the WF game.

Mario has some big To Do’s this offseason or we will slide back to 8-4.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I think the truth, in almost all aspects of life, usually lies somewhere in the middle. But I do think there are very valid discussion points if you wanted to go full, 100% sunshine pumper or full, 100% mope. So, as we close the regular season in 2024, and year 3 of Mario's regime, where do you stand in terms of this season, and the direction of the program? I tried to lay out some bullet points as far as what I feel would be optimism and pessimism around the program. So what do you think? Is the glass half-full, or half-empty?

Because I try to be an optimistic person in life (being miserable and negative all the time is legitimately bad for your health, by the way), let's start there:

- We finished the season 10-2. Bottom line, many people say you are what your record says you are, so we are 10-2. Mario won 5 games in Year 1, 7 games in Year 2, and 10 games in Year 3. That is CLEAR and obvious progression.

- We absolutely smashed UiF and FSU this year. We had lost to FSU 3 years in a row, one of those years losing 45-3. We beat the 2 of them by a combined score of 77-31, and 14 of those points surrendered with in total garbage time with kids pulled from the stands playing. We have to feel good about being clearly ahead of both of those programs currently, and yes I'm aware of what UiF is doing currently. I don't care. Being in that stadium on 8/31 in the middle of the bull gator section was genuinely one of the best days of my life, and I'll remember it forever.

- The old Bobby Bowden adage when he was building a program was "First you lose big, then you lose small, then you win small, then you win big". In 2022, we lost big. In 2023, we lost small. In 2024, we won small, sort of. 10 wins overall, but pulled some out by the skin of our *** (Cal, VT). Can we parlay this into winning big in 2025?

- We had the #1 offense in America by MANY metrics. One of the mope points about Mario was that he was a QB killer. He "meddled" in the offense (ridiculous, but I digress). He was a caveman. All of those narratives were crushed this season. Cam Ward will be in NYC in 12 days for a Heisman presentation. Our offense was high-flying, big play, anything but "Bro-style". We should be able to convince a very good quarterback to come here, both in HS recruiting and in the portal.

- We have recruited the best back to back classes in program history, or at least close to it, at worst. The close of 2025 is still up in the air, but Mario's 2023 and 2024 classes were EXCELLENT, and we should have a solid backbone of good players going forward.

- Mario's gameday coaching was, to me, very much improved this year. I know the FG decision on Saturday was ridiculed, and likely deservedly so, but I thought he was MUCH more aggressive than ever before. He went for it on 4th and 1 multiple times deep in our own territory, something he'd have NEVER done in his Oregon tenure, no matter what. There were very few completely egregious time management errors like there have been in the past. We still use timeouts at times when we shouldn't, but I didn't think his overall gameday performances were as deplorable as years past. He's never going to be great here, we just need him to not cost us games, and I didn't think he did. Again, for me personally, I like my coaches to be aggressive. If you die with the pedal down, I can live with that. Just don't be clueless or scared. I didn't think he was this year, which was a very welcomed change. He's clearly learning/adapting.

- I thought the overall coaching on offense was very good. Think back to years past, and then this year. We had very few botched snaps, illegal formations, broken plays with guys going the wrong way, confusion, general unpreparedness. Was it 2022 when we had the 2 guys smash into each other in the backfield and they tackles themselves for about a 10 yard loss? That **** is embarrassing. I thought the operation was much more efficient. The kicking game was flawless. Very few pre-snap penalties on offense. We were heavily penalized overall, but I thought most of them were at least aggressive and not braindead (except for how we ended the Syracuse game, with 2 lobotomy patients getting an unsportsmanlike and offsides).

- At the end of the day, the team is significantly better today than it was when he got here. Not good enough, but it's absolutely improved. When we stop improving, I think it's time for panic. We went from 5 to 7 to 10 wins. That's improvement. Now where do we go from here?

I can list a few more things, but I think this is a good overarching, macro start. Let's move on to things that I think we can point to if we want to have pessimism and look at the glass as half-empty

- We still didn't win the ACC, something we've never done in 20 years, and we didn't even make the championship game. Again.

- We lost 2 more games as double-digit favorites, and Mario has now done that 5 times in his career here, more than any other program in America. We are 4-9 in November/December since 2022. This has been a Mario bug-a-boo for a while, losing games as a big favorite, and he did it twice again this year, to GT and Syracuse. Both were one-score games on the road, but the point remains.

- The defense was....holy christ I can't even describe it accurately. The worst we have had here in a LONG time, and is beyond any comprehension. This was a capital F failure, in permanent ink. It starts with Mario...being this devoid of talent, especially in the back 7, in Year 3 is completely unacceptable. But, in line with the same discussion we've had here for YEARS now, yes the talent is not great, but it's certainly better than "worst in the conference", which is absolutely a discussion. So, Mario and his staff failed the talent acquisition piece. And then Guidry and his staff took the talent they do have and completely diarrhea'd in the bed with it. If we just have an average defense, this is likely a 12-0 team. Just average. If you pair the ~50th best defense in America with the #1 offense, you have a really good team. Our defense is markedly worse, and it's going to cause us to waste the best offense we've ever had. Guidry will clearly be fired, and deservedly so. I can't really justify anyone on that side of the ball keeping their jobs, but of course he's not going to fire every single defensive coach. But being THAT bad is absolutely a fireable offense, and Guidry will be packing his bags soon, along with at least 1-2 other coaches on defense.

- Special teams sucked ***, again. Borregales is a pure stud, but we have nobody to return kicks, nobody to return punts, and we can't cover a kickoff to save our lives. Totally unacceptable at a school like this with what should be a roster full of elite athletes. Hire a full-time special teams coach, yesterday.

- More on the defense, and as I lauded the offensive coaching above, I need to blast the defensive preparation. We looked like we didn't even practice on defense in the beginning of games. Way too often we heard "they did something they hadn't shown before". Bull****. How bout we show something we haven't ever shown? Why are we always the one on our heels to start games? Plus the communication in games was beyond dog ****, every single week. Multiple plays every single game where nobody has any idea what they're doing, and the offense has our kid's brains in a blender. Unacceptable.

- We continue to be a punching bag for other teams to do things they've never done in their history. GT has been playing football since the 1800s. They had the 2nd longest drive they've ever had in their history against us. Syracuse has never come from 21 points behind to win a game in their history. They did it to us.

- We went "all-in" on this season, with a multi-million dollar quarterback and a ~$20M roster, and still couldn't win the ACC. We expect to still be a big player in the NIL game, and I trust Mario and his staff to recruit, but this was Year 3, with your nuts on the table from a financial standpoint. And we still didn't get it done.

Overall, to me, all summer I said 10-2 or bust. I started to move really towards 11-1 once the roster finalized and I looked deeply at the schedule. But I had a few goals:

1. Win 10+ games.....check
2. Beat the gator and fsu.....check
3. Win the ACC......nope
4. Make the playoff......likely nope

So, all in all, when I step back and really digest this thing, I'm going to be somewhat torn, I think. I'm happy with the progress. I had a TON of fun the past 3 months. But, we wasted another opportunity, and I'm not entirely sure where we go from here. With recruiting the way it's been, we should have a really talented team next year, and we're going to be aggressive in the portal. But we're going to be hiring a new DC, and that will likely cost us some defensive recruits for this class.

What did I miss? Let me know what you guys think that are making you feel somewhat optimistic and/or pessimistic both about this season, and the future.
Click to expand...
This is the most coherent, logical and sane take I've seen since mid-day Saturday. Thank you for that. I've been avoiding commenting on so many posts because I don't want to throw flames at fellow Canes "fans" as they digest this lost their own way. That said, there's a line in what you wrote that I think stands above all the rest:

At the end of the day, the team is significantly better today than it was when he (Mario) got here. Not good enough, but it's absolutely improved. When we stop improving, I think it's time for panic.

That right there. That is a bullseye, is fair and quite honestly, is the best way to look at Mario. We have a lot of fans who want to toss the soup before the broth has boiled. As I tell my teenaged kids often, slow down.

Rant over. Thank you.
 
423Hurricane said:
In years past, we wouldn’t have had a chance to come back like we did against VT and Cal. We’d have folded like a wet rag.
Click to expand...
This is a major difference. In the past two seasons the only game we weren't really competitive in was 2023 UNC. Every loss since then has basically been a one possession game. Meanwhile, blowout city was the norm during a lot of losses in the Shannon, Golden, Richt, and Diaz eras.

Mario's definitely raised the floor of the program to an 8-10 win team a year (compared to 6-8 win team in prior years). The question is whether he will actually take it farther.
 
HurricanesR1 said:
Only difference is our schedule was weaker than most.
Click to expand...
Hmmm says who? I know this is stated a lot but GT could have (and dare I say should have) beaten UGA and which SEC/BIG team would you take over SU once you get past 1-4 (ish) in each conference? Each top 12-14 (cfb) team struggled this year.
 
BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati said:
This is the most coherent, logical and sane take I've seen since mid-day Saturday. Thank you for that. I've been avoiding commenting on so many posts because I don't want to throw flames at fellow Canes "fans" as they digest this lost their own way. That said, there's a line in what you wrote that I think stands above all the rest:

At the end of the day, the team is significantly better today than it was when he (Mario) got here. Not good enough, but it's absolutely improved. When we stop improving, I think it's time for panic.

That right there. That is a bullseye, is fair and quite honestly, is the best way to look at Mario. We have a lot of fans who want to toss the soup before the broth has boiled. As I tell my teenaged kids often, slow down.

Rant over. Thank you.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

I was really ****ed and disappointed on Saturday, and I still am. But I'm over 40 years old, I really try to look big-picture in everything in life, sports fandom included. If you get too high or too low, it can get dangerous. So I took a couple days to process, and wrote what I did, but I know a lot of other people have really solid opinions and talking points as well. I was genuinely curious how others felt. I know there are always going to be miserable people here, and everywhere in life, that if they hit the lottery they'd be ****ed that you paid them only in hundreds and not twenties and fifties. Just the way it is. I try to not pay those people any mind, although this board does make that difficult. So, sifting through the "This guy Mario ******* SUCKS!!" posts, it's been nice to hear from a lot of people on this thread and others who I see making coherent, rational posts all the time on here.

Starting with Year 2 at both Oregon and Miami, Mario is now 26-8 at Oregon and 17-8 at Miami. That's 43-16 as a Power head coach once you get him to Year 2. If you look at only Year 3, he's 22-4. So clearly he doesn't suck. But it's fair to think what the ceiling might be. Losing 5 games as a double-digit favorite in 3 years just can't happen. Especially when 2 of those are in Year 3 here with the best offense in America. So again, all that bull**** to say, I'm genuinely torn about how to feel to this point.
 
I thought we would go 10-2 and we went 10-2. There much to complain about but so many years of being trash that I can only look at the cup half full.
 
DrNovaCane said:
Hmmm says who? I know this is stated a lot but GT could have (and dare I say should have) beaten UGA and which SEC/BIG team would you take over SU once you get past 1-4 (ish) in each conference? Each top 12-14 (cfb) team struggled this year.
Click to expand...
I answered a similar question earlier. Unlike other teams, we don't have much to fall back on.

We didn't beat any elite or highly ranked teams. We paid for a pretty stacked roster and played much weaker opponents yet right now, we beat no ranked teams and lost to two that were unranked.

Two of those unranked teams we beat were only wins because of wild comebacks and helpful officiating.
 
Advertisement
HurricanesR1 said:
I answered a similar question earlier. Unlike other teams, we don't have much to fall back on.

We didn't beat any elite or highly ranked teams. We paid for a pretty stacked roster and played much weaker opponents yet right now, we beat no ranked teams and lost to two that were unranked.

Two of those unranked teams we beat were only wins because of wild comebacks and helpful officiating.
Click to expand...

Kinda like Georgia against an unranked team at home, you say?

I don't disagree with what you're saying, overall. It's the main thing that will keep us out, obviously, assuming we do miss. Who have you beat? But people need to stop with the comebacks and ref stuff. Winning games when you don't play your best needs to be celebrated, not **** upon.

I think any person in the country would tell you that UGA is a better team than Miami this year, and they needed 8 overtimes and a lot of very interesting officiating to beat a team, at home, that they were 17 point favorites over. I don't see anyone saying they shouldn't make the playoffs or docking their resume because of it. They won the game. That's why you play (Herm Edwards voice).
 
BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati said:
This is the most coherent, logical and sane take I've seen since mid-day Saturday. Thank you for that. I've been avoiding commenting on so many posts because I don't want to throw flames at fellow Canes "fans" as they digest this lost their own way. That said, there's a line in what you wrote that I think stands above all the rest:

At the end of the day, the team is significantly better today than it was when he (Mario) got here. Not good enough, but it's absolutely improved. When we stop improving, I think it's time for panic.

That right there. That is a bullseye, is fair and quite honestly, is the best way to look at Mario. We have a lot of fans who want to toss the soup before the broth has boiled. As I tell my teenaged kids often, slow down.

Rant over. Thank you.
Click to expand...
Lemme add in being another older guy looking big picture

I’ve never been a believer that Mario would bring us #6 but I also think firing him would be an absolute disaster

I mean he’s in absolutely zero danger of it and really shouldn’t be anyway, but the thing I was most optimistic about him was he was going to be given the time and resources to execute his plan

Just because his plan doesn’t jive with my timeline is irrelevant. I have no idea if his plan ultimately works and me being a believer is irrelevant as well but literally the last thing this place needs is some sort of reboot. I actually like the mix we’ve balanced so far with the portal and recruiting

Coming into this year I felt this was the most important stretch of my fandom (maybe since probation) not just on the field for 2024 but how does Mario go out and replace and keep building when we lose absolutely critical pieces to the team

That remains to be seen. Not gonna really know that answer for another 12 months though
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Kinda like Georgia against an unranked team at home, you say?

I don't disagree with what you're saying, overall. It's the main thing that will keep us out, obviously, assuming we do miss. Who have you beat? But people need to stop with the comebacks and ref stuff. Winning games when you don't play your best needs to be celebrated, not **** upon.

I think any person in the country would tell you that UGA is a better team than Miami this year, and they needed 8 overtimes and a lot of very interesting officiating to beat a team, at home, that they were 17 point favorites over. I don't see anyone saying they shouldn't make the playoffs or docking their resume because of it. They won the game. That's why you play (Herm Edwards voice).
Click to expand...
Georgia also can say they beat Tennessee and Texas. We played no one of that caliber.

That's the difference between Georgia, Ohio St, Tennessee and Miami.
 
I would answer this question with "Neither". I wouldn't touch the glass and drink out of it, it would be sold as a promise and an experience that it doesn't keep.

The reality is is that the ACC is as weak as ever. We aren't in the title game, we played down to our competition throughout the season and we showed the same disciplinary issues we've shown for years now.

We won't be as good next year as we were this year. That's how I see it. And that should tell everyone all they need to know.
 
Back
Top