Disagree.
Mario would've needed to wind up here at some point between cutting his teeth at Florida International and his tenure at Alabama (learning under Nick Saban).
While we have no idea what would've happened with Miami Hurricanes football between 2007 and 2022 if a Greg Schiano or Gary Patterson took over—how long either would've lasted, who would've shown up after, etc.—we know that Mario was four years into his tenure at Oregon and was ready to further sink his teeth in if his alma mater didn't call.
Mario was in the good graces of Phil Knight, had his own Nike deal, was growing something in Eugene—and he has two sons that are 10 and 12 years old—and the family had called the Pacific Northwest home for five years.
As parents, we know that these are fragile ages for kids and realistically, if you can (not always easy for coaches)—you'd want to dig in for the next eight years; until the youngest was done with high school—before making other move.
Mario made it clear that Miami was the only call he was taking and that outside of a return to Coral Gables, he was planting his flag in Oregon as long as they wanted him there. The more success attained, the harder it'd have been for him to leave.
The caveat would've been the level of rebuild Miami needed in 2022 with a different trajectory, as well as the money behind the program—as Ruiz money, Mas money and other big boosters helped pave the way, as he wasn't returning if UM was a hot mess and resources weren't on the mend.
A perfect storm brought this together and it's impossible to predict where the Canes would've been with better coaching the past 15 years—but the more Mario dug in his heels in Oregon, the harder it would've been to pry him out of there in the coming years. Especially if he continued to succeed, got closer to playing for titles and his wife / sons were thriving in Eugene (making it harder to leave).
