OrangeBowlMagic
CEO
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2014
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Now that the dust has settled, as much as I disagree with the moves (or lack thereof), we have to live with what we've got, so I wanted to take a harder look at Manny's performance strictly as a DC.
The sentiment here from most, as it seems to me, is that he sucks overall as a DC. I've read post after post that all have these things in common:
1. We get crushed by every good team we play
2. We make average offenses look great
So, I decided to take a look at 2016 - 2018 and see how he stacked up. Now, opponents YPP is not the best indicator in the world. No metric is. But it's a very good indicator of success. If you look, year in and year out, and the defenses people feel are the best, they are at or near the top in YPP allowed. So I took a look, and frankly, the numbers are staggering in Manny's favor. What I wanted to see is not only what the total YPP allowed was (I think we all know, for better or worse, that overall they were very good those 3 years when looking nationally), but how did we compare to the teams we played. Again, the sentiment here is we can't stop good teams, and bad teams look better when they play us. Well...…...those of you who feel that way probably aren't going to enjoy what the data shows.
-- In 2016 - 2018, we played 36 games vs FBS teams. Of those 36 games, we held our opponent under their season average in YPP on offense 30 times. That's 83% of the time. 83% of the time, when Manny was the DC, the team we played had a BELOW AVERAGE game on offense. That's not bad.
-- Of those 30 such games, 21 of them, we held our opponent to close to a FULL YARD below their season average. If you're not aware, that is a MASSIVE difference. A full yard per play is worth probably 50+ spots in the national rankings (6 YPP vs 5 YPP, etc). So in 21 of 36 games played, the defense held our opponent to almost a full yard less than their average (-0.95 and up is what I found).
-- Of the 6 games that the defense gave up MORE than the opponent's season average, only ONE of those times was it more than a full yard. 2017 vs Virginia, a game we won, but one that lives in infamy on this site. The others: 2016 VT when the whole defense was hurt (0.93 higher than avg), 2016 Notre Dame (0.06 above avg, basically a wash), 2016 Duke (0.15 above avg), 2017 FSU (0.28 above avg), and 2018 Boston College (0.07 above average). So even the games we were worse than average against that opponent, most of them were barely worse.
-- I'm not trying to skew anything here, I'm trying to project this objectively. So what about the offenses we played? That's where one could make an argument against what I've presented above. 2017, we faced a lot of good offenses. 7 of the top 41 offenses. Of those, the defense held 6 of them below their average. The only time they didn't, Notre Dame that was mentioned above, they only got 0.06 yards above their average. So we faced a Top 41 offense more than half the games, and almost every single time, they were below their average against us. 2017 and 2018, we didn't face a lot of good offenses. Only 3 in the Top 51. However, of those, we held ALL 3 to well below their averages. ND, GT, and Toledo. 2018, only 4 offenses in the Top 44. But again, all 4 were held below their season averages.
I will post the spreadsheets below, but the bottom line is, as much as you want to say the defense sucked and Manny sucks as a DC, the data is overwhelmingly against you. We do not face elite offenses week in and week out, but literally every single time except 1 that Manny faced a Top 50 offense, he held them under their season average. Again, doesn't mean the defense is lights out every week. We know we had some performances that left a lot to be desired. But for 3 years we all said "If we just had a good offense to pair with Manny's defense". Well, for better or worse, we're gonna get what we wish for.
The sentiment here from most, as it seems to me, is that he sucks overall as a DC. I've read post after post that all have these things in common:
1. We get crushed by every good team we play
2. We make average offenses look great
So, I decided to take a look at 2016 - 2018 and see how he stacked up. Now, opponents YPP is not the best indicator in the world. No metric is. But it's a very good indicator of success. If you look, year in and year out, and the defenses people feel are the best, they are at or near the top in YPP allowed. So I took a look, and frankly, the numbers are staggering in Manny's favor. What I wanted to see is not only what the total YPP allowed was (I think we all know, for better or worse, that overall they were very good those 3 years when looking nationally), but how did we compare to the teams we played. Again, the sentiment here is we can't stop good teams, and bad teams look better when they play us. Well...…...those of you who feel that way probably aren't going to enjoy what the data shows.
-- In 2016 - 2018, we played 36 games vs FBS teams. Of those 36 games, we held our opponent under their season average in YPP on offense 30 times. That's 83% of the time. 83% of the time, when Manny was the DC, the team we played had a BELOW AVERAGE game on offense. That's not bad.
-- Of those 30 such games, 21 of them, we held our opponent to close to a FULL YARD below their season average. If you're not aware, that is a MASSIVE difference. A full yard per play is worth probably 50+ spots in the national rankings (6 YPP vs 5 YPP, etc). So in 21 of 36 games played, the defense held our opponent to almost a full yard less than their average (-0.95 and up is what I found).
-- Of the 6 games that the defense gave up MORE than the opponent's season average, only ONE of those times was it more than a full yard. 2017 vs Virginia, a game we won, but one that lives in infamy on this site. The others: 2016 VT when the whole defense was hurt (0.93 higher than avg), 2016 Notre Dame (0.06 above avg, basically a wash), 2016 Duke (0.15 above avg), 2017 FSU (0.28 above avg), and 2018 Boston College (0.07 above average). So even the games we were worse than average against that opponent, most of them were barely worse.
-- I'm not trying to skew anything here, I'm trying to project this objectively. So what about the offenses we played? That's where one could make an argument against what I've presented above. 2017, we faced a lot of good offenses. 7 of the top 41 offenses. Of those, the defense held 6 of them below their average. The only time they didn't, Notre Dame that was mentioned above, they only got 0.06 yards above their average. So we faced a Top 41 offense more than half the games, and almost every single time, they were below their average against us. 2017 and 2018, we didn't face a lot of good offenses. Only 3 in the Top 51. However, of those, we held ALL 3 to well below their averages. ND, GT, and Toledo. 2018, only 4 offenses in the Top 44. But again, all 4 were held below their season averages.
I will post the spreadsheets below, but the bottom line is, as much as you want to say the defense sucked and Manny sucks as a DC, the data is overwhelmingly against you. We do not face elite offenses week in and week out, but literally every single time except 1 that Manny faced a Top 50 offense, he held them under their season average. Again, doesn't mean the defense is lights out every week. We know we had some performances that left a lot to be desired. But for 3 years we all said "If we just had a good offense to pair with Manny's defense". Well, for better or worse, we're gonna get what we wish for.
| 2016 SEASON | |||
| OPPONENT | YPP ALLOWED | OPP YPP AVG | DIFFERENCE |
| FAU | 3.01 | 5.68 | -2.67 |
| APP STATE | 3.65 | 6.13 | -2.48 |
| GEORGIA TECH | 4.95 | 6.47 | -1.52 |
| FLORIDA STATE | 5.33 | 6.48 | -1.15 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 5.18 | 6.3 | -1.12 |
| VIRGINIA TECH | 6.71 | 5.78 | 0.93 |
| NOTRE DAME | 6.13 | 6.07 | 0.06 |
| PITTSBURGH | 5.96 | 6.94 | -0.98 |
| VIRGINIA | 4.31 | 4.82 | -0.51 |
| NC STATE | 4.51 | 5.72 | -1.21 |
| DUKE | 5.2 | 5.05 | 0.15 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | 3.52 | 6.29 | -2.77 |
| 2017 SEASON | |||
| OPPONENT | YPP ALLOWED | OPP YPP AVG | DIFFERENCE |
| TOLEDO | 5.05 | 6.87 | -1.82 |
| DUKE | 3.97 | 4.79 | -0.82 |
| FLORIDA STATE | 5.72 | 5.44 | 0.28 |
| GEORGIA TECH | 4.61 | 5.74 | -1.13 |
| SYRACUSE | 4.29 | 5.24 | -0.95 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 4.65 | 5.02 | -0.37 |
| VIRGINIA TECH | 3.99 | 5.39 | -1.4 |
| NOTRE DAME | 4.14 | 6.39 | -2.25 |
| VIRGINIA | 6.75 | 4.9 | 1.85 |
| PITTSBURGH | 4.66 | 5.43 | -0.77 |
| CLEMSON | 4.41 | 5.46 | -1.05 |
| WISCONSIN | 5.13 | 6.09 | -0.96 |
| 2018 SEASON | |||
| OPPONENT | YPP ALLOWED | OPP YPP AVG | DIFFERENCE |
| LSU | 4.55 | 5.47 | -0.92 |
| TOLEDO | 5.66 | 6.08 | -0.42 |
| FIU | 3.6 | 6 | -2.4 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 4.39 | 5.7 | -1.31 |
| FLORIDA STATE | 3.08 | 5.07 | -1.99 |
| VIRGINIA | 3.79 | 5.76 | -1.97 |
| BOSTON COLLEGE | 5.22 | 5.15 | 0.07 |
| DUKE | 4.33 | 5.41 | -1.08 |
| GEORGIA TECH | 5.32 | 5.97 | -0.65 |
| VIRGINIA TECH | 4.86 | 5.66 | -0.8 |
| PITTSBURGH | 3.23 | 5.77 | -2.54 |
| WISCONSIN | 5.88 | 6.4 | -0.52 |
