Ultimately I think there needs to be some context and clarity on what this FSU team brings to the table.
-Pre-season projections have variance and can be wrong, but this is a roster that Bud Elliot said was put together to get to a bowl game and give Norvell another year. He nailed their issues going into last year. This was not seen as a CFP or even 9 win team.
-FSUs own writers had them going 7-5 this year on average, and rated various position groups as below average.
-Looking across their roster, there is top line talent at WR and RB. However, they’ve got 2 RBs down including their starter Roydell. They’ve also got very little depth at WR. LB is good to very good. But you’ll also see some jags and bargain bin transfers starting.
-Castellanos is a good fit for them schematically. Athletic and fast in space, has an arm but lacks accuracy and poise. He’s a smaller Byrum Brown. He also does a lot, like Jordan Travis, to mask issues on their OL. That is not an OL unit that matches up with us well imo.
-Their leading rusher is a true freshman wideout that’s gotten a chunk of yardage off reverses. Their route tree has also been slats and go routes. They haven’t done anything in the intermediate passing game.
-Their D is similar to last year. Beyond Jackson they’ve got average to below average. Earl Little is the only guy in that secondary that would start here. Bama had WRs running wide open the whole game, but Ty Simpson looked like TVD.
-I think we’ll ground and pound them. They do not match up well with us in the trenches.
This has to make you feel good. Bud Elliot whose a Nole fan saying this kinda makes you think he's not completely bought into FSU being an elite team or he would ride for them here. His pre season observations and opinions on them were meh as well and he saw and attended their practices.
On this, look at my second point above. This roster is not a CFP roster. And Castellanos is not even a top 15 QB in CFB. I think they come back down to earth against us.
They remind me a lot of 2023 Miami. Beat up an overrated SEC team but came down to earth after teams had some film. Also, Malzahn isn’t the offensive god that their fans are portraying him as. Doesn’t matter how well he did as an “OC.” As an HC, he got fired at Auburn and was on his way to getting fired at UCF with his scheme. Like Saban said on gameday, his scheme excels against less talented teams.
Norvell is going to throw the kitchen sink. He knows how important this game is for the program. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we go in there and win comfortably in a 34-20 type of game. I do not think they match up with us in the trenches. And their secondary is not good.