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Interesting objective slant on team/bowl

The Franchise said:
Problem with this “analytics” approach is that it disregards the fact that Rickety is responsible for acquiring and teaching QBs. Some of you guys act like he’s just an innocent bystander whose plays and philosophy is being ruined by interloper bad QBs.

So the analytics say we could be a 9 win team in year 3? That’s still a failure.
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I’ve never once given Richt anything remotely close to a pass here. I’ve said over and over that he is the head of this program AND runs the offense, so all of this lies at his feet. Every bit. I’m just saying that I hope he can find a QB who isn’t a total ****up either on or off the field, and sometimes both. But it’s his responsibility to do so. I didn’t hear this much ire from the fan base in relation to the play-calling when Kaaya was here. It’s the same guy calling the shots. Why is it so much worse? IMO it’s because nobody here has played anywhere close to how he did, and the frustrating part is you’d think Perry has the talent to. He just has a $0.02 head.
 
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Hey guys let's listen to a rotoworld employee that says to bet -3 while the line gets pushed down below that number leading up to the game. Maybe that roto guy should learn about closing line value. Oh, he also should learn about not using lines from places like Bovada that ban winners. I am sure this guy really knows what he's talking about with everything else though.
 
A dark cloud hangs over today's game. The linear line move against Miami portends a Wisconsin win. We were -4 over Wisky and just last night moved off the -3 to now just -2.5. Moving off the 3 is as close to a kiss of death as there is with sports gambling. The moneyline has dropped from -202 to a paltry -138 at Pinnacle.

And no, the move didn't happen once Malik was announced starter, which is even more of a reason for concern. This wasn't some adjustment by the bookmakers, it was sharp money. That clown at Bovada suggesting squares are betting Miami may be right. But every so often the squares and the sharps are on the same side of the same game. This appears to be one of them. We still have some time before kickoff, but as of now it's bad. No sugarcoating it, folks.
 
yup this goes back to all of Richts tenure, 2016 was more like this year, where we lost games to FSU and ND that we shoulda won. Unfortunately it has affected recruiting because we need to open up the margin for error a little bit with talent, hopfully the 17-18 classes with srinkles of 16 and 19 can get us back on track
 
BWCD said:
At the risk of sounding too optimistic (because I'm not, esp. w/Rosier at QB), we "rolled" VT and Pitt both. Those games were dominant performances on D and in the running game.

Can we do the same against Wisky? Doubtful, but we'll see tomorrow night.
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We ran better out of spread looks. Guess we'll see what happens when our TEs are back on the field.
 
BWCD said:
And I can't disagree with you on those merits. That being said...I can't in good conscience agree with you that we could win/cover with Rosier at QB.

It's weird...that's why while this bowl game is a matchup of 2 struggling teams, that it might be the most interesting matchup we see. Either team could come out and blow the other out. Or it could be a pillow fight of epic proportions ending in a 9-6 FG contest.
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If Rosie scrambles 6-9 times in substitute for throwing into coverage, we will win.
 
My alma mater gave a bad basketball coach an extension several years ago. I was appalled and sent the AD an email with some data suggesting the team was a .500 team that got lucky and I referenced their Pythagorean Expected record for the year (which is second-order wins). He replied with the AD equivalent of “thanks for the comedic relief.”

That contract was an albatross and the coach is finally gone, but if you are in a decision makers seat and you don’t understand advanced data, you are doing your organization a disservice.

Yes, Miami is a better team than 7-5, and yes, last year they weren’t undefeated good, but there are issues that cause Miami to self-impose the hindrances that are causing the woes.

Miami is a better team than Wisconsin, but I’m not convinced Miami has the gameplan to exploit that fact. It’ll be interesting to see if Richt does anything differently today.
 
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Lance Roffers said:
My alma mater gave a bad basketball coach an extension several years ago. I was appalled and sent the AD an email with some data suggesting the team was a .500 team that got lucky and I referenced their Pythagorean Expected record for the year (which is second-order wins). He replied with the AD equivalent of “thanks for the comedic relief.”

That contract was an albatross and the coach is finally gone, but if you are in a decision makers seat and you don’t understand advanced data, you are doing your organization a disservice.

Yes, Miami is a better team than 7-5, and yes, last year they weren’t undefeated good, but there are issues that cause Miami to self-impose the hindrances that are causing the woes.

Miami is a better team than Wisconsin, but I’m not convinced Miami has the gameplan to exploit that fact. It’ll be interesting to see if Richt does anything differently today.
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Really enjoy when you and a few others here chime in on discussions I’m involved in. It genuinely saddens me when I have to face the reality that the majority of this fan base is embarrassingly uneducated and, frankly, clinically moronic. But reading posts like this make me forget that, even if it’s for just a few seconds.

I’m prepared to be disappointed again today, however. And not because Miami will lose. I don’t believe they will. But they’ll win doing the exact same things they’ve been doing all year. I seriously doubt we’ll see anything freshly creative.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve never once given Richt anything remotely close to a pass here. I’ve said over and over that he is the head of this program AND runs the offense, so all of this lies at his feet. Every bit. I’m just saying that I hope he can find a QB who isn’t a total ****up either on or off the field, and sometimes both. But it’s his responsibility to do so. I didn’t hear this much ire from the fan base in relation to the play-calling when Kaaya was here. It’s the same guy calling the shots. Why is it so much worse? IMO it’s because nobody here has played anywhere close to how he did, and the frustrating part is you’d think Perry has the talent to. He just has a $0.02 head.
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What you’re saying is completely logical. Basically, what you’re saying is that if Rickety got an elite QB the offense would be better. There’s no doubt that’s right. The problem is that it would never be as good as it SHOULD BE. He’d take an elite QB and maybe get us in the top 25 statistically. Whereas, a top OC would take that same elite QB and build a top 3 offense around him.

As for 2016, you must not remember it, but there were plenty of us screaming about how bad the offense was and how we wanted him to hire an OC.
 
jsy said:
you are what your record says you are
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Maybe.

The other day I watched the 80 Peach Bowl. Jim Kelly led us to victory over a Va Tech team with an outstanding RB, Cyrus Lawrence.

I had a friend who followed UM football for years. He was truly an insider. A great leader in the Hurricane Club, traveled with the team, went to closed practices, etc.

Told me that our team the next year, 1981, was the best team in the country. I think we had two flukey losses, both by a few points, in away games. I can't remember the full story, but we lost at Mississippi State because our players couldn't hear calls because the entire crowd was playing cowbells. We lost another close one at Texas, I believe.

EDIT: Yes, we lost 14-10 when we had a winning TD pass called back on an illegal procedure or motion call. As I remember the discussion back then, the procedure was caused (or at least affected) by the intense racket caused by the crowd's cowbells. (And please, no old SNL cowbell jokes or videos--I agree it was one of the funniest SNL skits ever.) Our players had trouble hearing calls.

There was a lot of bitterness after that loss.

I don't remember the circumstances of the other loss, I believe to Texas at their place, but it was close.

There was at least a decent argument that we were better than our 9-2 record.

Had we been 11-0, we could have rightfully been considered the best team in the country.

So, the OP's argument is interesting but it doesn't get us into the playoffs. It's like when the 1983 Auburn team claimed the NC because they won the New York Times computer rankings. Pat Dye, the Auburn coach, bitterly complained that Schnellenberger campaigned for it and since we got to play number one Nebraska we were playing for the NC.

I believe we were ranked behind Auburn going into the bowl games.

I saw advertisements for Auburn national championship t-shirts for that year

Kind of like winning the Max Emfinger Memorial National Recruiting Trophy.
 
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The Franchise said:
So if we were better in two of the three phases of football we’d have a better record? That’s probably true for every bad team.
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That's the thing. This isn't a bad team. Just bad offensive scheming and a below average punter. The roster has very capable players all we're asking for is that the coach doesn't put them in bad situations.
 
TheMatador said:
Maybe.

The other day I watched the 80 Peach Bowl. Jim Kelly led us to victory over a Va Tech team with an outstanding RB, Cyrus Lawrence.

I had a friend who followed UM football for years. He was truly an insider. A great leader in the Hurricane Club, traveled with the team, went to closed practices, etc.

Told me that our team the next year, 1981, was the best team in the country. I think we had two flukey losses, both by a few points, in away games. I can't remember the full story, but we lost at Mississippi State because our players couldn't hear calls because the entire crowd was playing cowbells. We lost another close one at Texas, I believe.

EDIT: Yes, we lost 14-10 when we had a winning TD pass called back on an illegal procedure or motion call. As I remember the discussion back then, the procedure was caused (or at least affected) by the intense racket caused by the crowd's cowbells. (And please, no old SNL cowbell jokes or videos--I agree it was one of the funniest SNL skits ever.) Our players had trouble hearing calls.

There was a lot of bitterness after that loss.

I don't remember the circumstances of the other loss, I believe to Texas at their place, but it was close.

There was at least a decent argument that we were better than our 9-2 record.

Had we been 11-0, we could have rightfully been considered the best team in the country.

So, the OP's argument is interesting but it doesn't get us into the playoffs. It's like when the 1983 Auburn team claimed the NC because they won the New York Times computer rankings. Pat Dye, the Auburn coach, bitterly complained that Schnellenberger campaigned for it and since we got to play number one Nebraska we were playing for the NC.

I believe we were ranked behind Auburn going into the bowl games.

I saw advertisements for Auburn national championship t-shirts for that year

Kind of like winning the Max Emfinger Memorial National Recruiting Trophy.
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Most underrated UM team of all times.....Refs cost us both games against Texas and Miss St....We beat 4 Ranked teams....FSU...UF...ND...and #1 Penn St....
 
Thor Nostrum - caught him on last week's episode of Vikings. He was trying to convince a raiding party he was the illegitimate son of an English princess and Ragnar Lothbrok
 
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The Franchise said:
What you’re saying is completely logical. Basically, what you’re saying is that if Rickety got an elite QB the offense would be better. There’s no doubt that’s right. The problem is that it would never be as good as it SHOULD BE. He’d take an elite QB and maybe get us in the top 25 statistically. Whereas, a top OC would take that same elite QB and build a top 3 offense around him.

As for 2016, you must not remember it, but there were plenty of us screaming about how bad the offense was and how we wanted him to hire an OC.
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And even then Richt called a better offense with more quick passing. He's had worse QB play and worse gameplans each year.
 
The Franchise said:
What you’re saying is completely logical. Basically, what you’re saying is that if Rickety got an elite QB the offense would be better. There’s no doubt that’s right. The problem is that it would never be as good as it SHOULD BE. He’d take an elite QB and maybe get us in the top 25 statistically. Whereas, a top OC would take that same elite QB and build a top 3 offense around him.

As for 2016, you must not remember it, but there were plenty of us screaming about how bad the offense was and how we wanted him to hire an OC.
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Bingo. QB is just another factor of a completely horrendous offense. #1 is OC, followed by OL and the rest can all be 3+
 
Lance Roffers said:
Miami is a better team than Wisconsin, but I’m not convinced Miami has the gameplan to exploit that fact.
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The sad thing is that you could replace Wisconsin with any of teams that we played this year and it would hold true save for LSU and in that case we weren't the better team and didn't have the game plan.
 
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