Currently, "a little bit of everything put together to create a perfect storm." By "parts" I mean everything: coaching, players, and their combination. Let me just say that I didn't expect us to go 12-0, 11-1, or even 10-2. Check predictions. I merely expected us to take advantage of opportunities better. On a podcast nearly a month ago, I mentioned that I expected us to have a very rough time at VTech. Ok, so no surprises there. But, there have been some surprises over the last 3 weeks - namely, FSU. We can later get into the specific Xs and Os. This post is about something broader.
Throughout these 3 losses, as it relates to offense, it hasn't been wholly on any individual aspect. Anyone labeling arguments (mine or otherwise) as such are seemingly deflecting from a deeper conversation. Each of the following elements own a portion of the problem: Richt, Kaaya, OL, skill players' execution. Throughout each loss, the percentages of accountability and missed opportunities vary. And, unlike other systems where there is seemingly more flexibility and cushion, since each of the elements are critical to make this offensive approach (no pun intended) work - even in the narrow sense, like a single play or series - it has been unlikely we'd see anything consistently effective.
A system where, so far:
- Right playcall
- Right read
- Good throw
- Perfect OL protection
- Perfect Skill position execution
are all necessary in order to achieve a positive play...
...leaves almost no margin for error. With so little margin of error play to play, is there a reasonable expectation we can create consistency drive to drive? How about over the course of the game?
We are playing approximately one or two steps behind our opponents.
Against FSU: we played mostly within the box. We ran mostly inside the hashes. We passed mostly outside the hashes. We mostly used our TEs as decoys.
Against UNC: we adjusted. We saw some throws inside the hashes. We focused on Njoku a bit more.
Against VT: we further adjusted. We saw a bunch more of 4Vert and vertical attack. This is what was needed mostly against what FSU showed; not necessarily against 6 man blitzes.
We're continuously adjusting. I appreciate that. It's a clear indicator we feel we've previously made mistakes. We just can't get the timing right against what the opposing defense is throwing at us. Even when we do, then the other elements fail somehow:
1. Poor playcall, play fails.
2. The perfect playcall, yet the OL (hit or big miss) fails and our play fails.
3. The correct playcall, OL gives a very solid pocket, QB makes throw, WR drops.
4. Correct playcall, OL gives solid pocket, QB doesn't step in or slide and helps defense get sack or hurry.
These are just some examples and round and round we go.
Let's make this simple: issues from all of the elements above come together to have 7 three (3) and out drives out of 14 total opportunities against VT. Against UNC, 6 of 12 drives ended in 3 and out or less. 50% of the time, we run three (3) plays and ask our defense to come back on the field to do its job.
With that style, almost no one can win games consistently against equal or superior talent. If you cannot win games consistently against equal or superior talent, you are unlikely to make a playoff run. Even less likely to win it.
Our opponents this season against us:
VT 9% of drives three (3) and out
UNC 17% of drives three (3) and out
FSU 8% of drives three (3) and out
Last season (2015) our 3 and out percentage for our offense:
VT 17% of drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (we won by 10)
UNC 34% of our drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (in a blowout loss!)
FSU 18% of our drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (we lost by 5)
Statistically, in 2016, we immediately relinquish opportunities to score almost 5x as much as our opponents. In 2016, we go 3 and out in our losses approximately 2x more than we did last year against the same opponents. That's a big deal when teams only get around 12 drives a game. Teams do not typically have to operate on such a razor thin margin of error. We have problems on the OL, in what Kaaya can and cannot do, and in players executing. No doubt. With these players, we need an approach that offers more of a cushion.
I was discussing something close to this last night with a friend in the context of how inefficient our offense is. Everything looks so difficult for us. We have a very difficult time getting into any sort of rhythm, and the smallest setback seems to completely derail any chance we have of having an effective drive.
What's surprising about that this year is that we actually do have the skill position players who can make big plays, which obviously takes pressure off of the offense to maintain long, sustained drives without making a mistake that halts the drive. I acknowledge that our OL sometimes limits what we can do, but it's still surprising to me that we aren't attempting, and not frequently converting, bigger plays. And, when I say big plays, it's not just deep shots all the way down the field, but the intermediate type routes that would get the ball to guys like Coley, Richards or Njoku in the 15-20 yard area down the field. So much of our passing game seems to happen in the 0-10 yard range, outside the hashes, without the possibility of much YAC. It's really tough to move down the field on 5-7 yard out routes without any setbacks. It's confusing to me why we aren't making more of an effort to get the ball to Coley, Njoku and Richards 20 times a game. Those 3 guys give us the best opportunity to eat up chunks of yards on individual plays.
Also, it seems pretty clear at this point that Walton is not the guy that is most effective in this offense. Again, because we tend to need so much to go right, the difference between 2nd and 8 and 2nd and 6 is important to us, and Walton is just not as effective running from the shotgun as Yearby is.
One question for you Lu - is there another college offense you can think of that operates primarily out of the shotgun, without a running QB, that isn't the air raid styple offense, with crazy OL splits (like Texas Tech or Baylor)? I know the Patriots do it some in the NFL, but in college, it just seems difficult to generate a consistent running game without the threat of the QB run or without spreading defenses out across the field to generate more space to run. Both under Coley and Richt, we've operated so much out of the shotgun, and when we face equal or better talent, our run game is shut down, making us one dimensional and making Kaaya an easy target.
