In our 3 losses, the whole is less than the sum of our parts

[LuCane]

Currently, "a little bit of everything put together to create a perfect storm." By "parts" I mean everything: coaching, players, and their combination. Let me just say that I didn't expect us to go 12-0, 11-1, or even 10-2. Check predictions. I merely expected us to take advantage of opportunities better. On a podcast nearly a month ago, I mentioned that I expected us to have a very rough time at VTech. Ok, so no surprises there. But, there have been some surprises over the last 3 weeks - namely, FSU. We can later get into the specific Xs and Os. This post is about something broader.

Throughout these 3 losses, as it relates to offense, it hasn't been wholly on any individual aspect. Anyone labeling arguments (mine or otherwise) as such are seemingly deflecting from a deeper conversation. Each of the following elements own a portion of the problem: Richt, Kaaya, OL, skill players' execution. Throughout each loss, the percentages of accountability and missed opportunities vary. And, unlike other systems where there is seemingly more flexibility and cushion, since each of the elements are critical to make this offensive approach (no pun intended) work - even in the narrow sense, like a single play or series - it has been unlikely we'd see anything consistently effective.

A system where, so far:

- Right playcall
- Right read
- Good throw
- Perfect OL protection
- Perfect Skill position execution

are all necessary in order to achieve a positive play...

...leaves almost no margin for error. With so little margin of error play to play, is there a reasonable expectation we can create consistency drive to drive? How about over the course of the game?

We are playing approximately one or two steps behind our opponents.

Against FSU: we played mostly within the box. We ran mostly inside the hashes. We passed mostly outside the hashes. We mostly used our TEs as decoys.
Against UNC: we adjusted. We saw some throws inside the hashes. We focused on Njoku a bit more.
Against VT: we further adjusted. We saw a bunch more of 4Vert and vertical attack. This is what was needed mostly against what FSU showed; not necessarily against 6 man blitzes.

We're continuously adjusting. I appreciate that. It's a clear indicator we feel we've previously made mistakes. We just can't get the timing right against what the opposing defense is throwing at us. Even when we do, then the other elements fail somehow:

1. Poor playcall, play fails.
2. The perfect playcall, yet the OL (hit or big miss) fails and our play fails.
3. The correct playcall, OL gives a very solid pocket, QB makes throw, WR drops.
4. Correct playcall, OL gives solid pocket, QB doesn't step in or slide and helps defense get sack or hurry.

These are just some examples and round and round we go.

Let's make this simple: issues from all of the elements above come together to have 7 three (3) and out drives out of 14 total opportunities against VT. Against UNC, 6 of 12 drives ended in 3 and out or less. 50% of the time, we run three (3) plays and ask our defense to come back on the field to do its job.

With that style, almost no one can win games consistently against equal or superior talent. If you cannot win games consistently against equal or superior talent, you are unlikely to make a playoff run. Even less likely to win it.

Our opponents this season against us:

VT 9% of drives three (3) and out
UNC 17% of drives three (3) and out
FSU 8% of drives three (3) and out

Last season (2015) our 3 and out percentage for our offense:

VT 17% of drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (we won by 10)
UNC 34% of our drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (in a blowout loss!)
FSU 18% of our drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (we lost by 5)

Statistically, in 2016, we immediately relinquish opportunities to score almost 5x as much as our opponents. In 2016, we go 3 and out in our losses approximately 2x more than we did last year against the same opponents. That's a big deal when teams only get around 12 drives a game. Teams do not typically have to operate on such a razor thin margin of error. We have problems on the OL, in what Kaaya can and cannot do, and in players executing. No doubt. With these players, we need an approach that offers more of a cushion.

 

[jw410]

So basically you are saying we regressed.

 

[Jedi Master Cane]

From a schematic standpoint, it's the worst offensive system I've ever seen. This is making Coley's offense look like Bill Walsh's niners.

 

[jackedaround]

18 first downs a game, good for 104th in the country.

 

[BigCaneAl]

Well, same O-line as last year so hard to explain regression. Clearly though the line play in combination with Kaaya's mobility limitations is not working. It's impossible to change the O-line very much, I think we should change our QB to fit what we can do.

Out of the 8 sacks last night I think at least 4 were completely on Kaaya, and probably the rest were indirectly on Kaaya. When you watch teams attack us in pass rush they have zero regard for Kaaya's mobility. Watch the twists and slants that VT was doing and there was no regard for Kaaya slipping out. It's such a stark contrast in having our D-lineman forced to go head on versus the O-line because they have to maintain lanes to contain mobile QBs. Besides escape-ability, the threat alone slows down the rush significantly.

 

[jackedaround]

Well, same O-line as last year so hard to explain regression. Clearly though the line play in combination with Kaaya's mobility limitations is not working. It's impossible to change the O-line very much, I think we should change our QB to fit what we can do.

Out of the 8 sacks last night I think at least 4 were completely on Kaaya, and probably the rest were indirectly on Kaaya. When you watch teams attack us in pass rush they have zero regard for Kaaya's mobility. Watch the twists and slants that VT was doing and there was no regard for Kaaya slipping out. It's such a stark contrast in having our D-lineman forced to go head on versus the O-line because they have to maintain lanes to contain mobile QBs. Besides escape-ability, the threat alone slows down the rush significantly.

KAAYA won 7 games last year, rosier won 1. he is on pace to win 7 games again. regression or reality?

 

[stormsurge]

With these players, we need an approach that offers more of a cushion.

What would you suggest?

 

[CanesFiend]

 

[BigCaneAl]

Also, last two years we have ripped Coley for our third down conversion percentage. I think we owe him an apology. It's clearly an issue with Kaaya in the face of pressure. Anything that's a passing down is a no win if they bring any kind of pressure.

 

[jevoasis]

Can we jump into a time machine and either go 14 days back or 300 days forward?

 

[RaiseCane]

Currently, "a little bit of everything put together to create a perfect storm." By "parts" I mean everything: coaching, players, and their combination. Let me just say that I didn't expect us to go 12-0, 11-1, or even 10-2. Check predictions. I merely expected us to take advantage of opportunities better. On a podcast nearly a month ago, I mentioned that I expected us to have a very rough time at VTech. Ok, so no surprises there. But, there have been some surprises over the last 3 weeks - namely, FSU. We can later get into the specific Xs and Os. This post is about something broader.

Throughout these 3 losses, as it relates to offense, it hasn't been wholly on any individual aspect. Anyone labeling arguments (mine or otherwise) as such are seemingly deflecting from a deeper conversation. Each of the following elements own a portion of the problem: Richt, Kaaya, OL, skill players' execution. Throughout each loss, the percentages of accountability and missed opportunities vary. And, unlike other systems where there is seemingly more flexibility and cushion, since each of the elements are critical to make this offensive approach (no pun intended) work - even in the narrow sense, like a single play or series - it has been unlikely we'd see anything consistently effective.

A system where, so far:

- Right playcall
- Right read
- Good throw
- Perfect OL protection
- Perfect Skill position execution

are all necessary in order to achieve a positive play...

...leaves almost no margin for error. With so little margin of error play to play, is there a reasonable expectation we can create consistency drive to drive? How about over the course of the game?

We are playing approximately one or two steps behind our opponents.

Against FSU: we played mostly within the box. We ran mostly inside the hashes. We passed mostly outside the hashes. We mostly used our TEs as decoys.
Against UNC: we adjusted. We saw some throws inside the hashes. We focused on Njoku a bit more.
Against VT: we further adjusted. We saw a bunch more of 4Vert and vertical attack. This is what was needed mostly against what FSU showed; not necessarily against 6 man blitzes.

We're continuously adjusting. I appreciate that. It's a clear indicator we feel we've previously made mistakes. We just can't get the timing right against what the opposing defense is throwing at us. Even when we do, then the other elements fail somehow:

1. Poor playcall, play fails.
2. The perfect playcall, yet the OL (hit or big miss) fails and our play fails.
3. The correct playcall, OL gives a very solid pocket, QB makes throw, WR drops.
4. Correct playcall, OL gives solid pocket, QB doesn't step in or slide and helps defense get sack or hurry.

These are just some examples and round and round we go.

Let's make this simple: issues from all of the elements above come together to have 7 three (3) and out drives out of 14 total opportunities against VT. Against UNC, 6 of 12 drives ended in 3 and out or less. 50% of the time, we run three (3) plays and ask our defense to come back on the field to do its job.

With that style, almost no one can win games consistently against equal or superior talent. If you cannot win games consistently against equal or superior talent, you are unlikely to make a playoff run. Even less likely to win it.

Our opponents this season against us:

VT 9% of drives three (3) and out
UNC 17% of drives three (3) and out
FSU 8% of drives three (3) and out

Last season (2015) our 3 and out percentage for our offense:

VT 17% of drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (we won by 10)
UNC 34% of our drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (in a blowout loss!)
FSU 18% of our drives ended in three (3) and out for our offense (we lost by 5)

Statistically, in 2016, we immediately relinquish opportunities to score almost 5x as much as our opponents. In 2016, we go 3 and out in our losses approximately 2x more than we did last year against the same opponents. That's a big deal when teams only get around 12 drives a game. Teams do not typically have to operate on such a razor thin margin of error. We have problems on the OL, in what Kaaya can and cannot do, and in players executing. No doubt. With these players, we need an approach that offers more of a cushion.

I was discussing something close to this last night with a friend in the context of how inefficient our offense is. Everything looks so difficult for us. We have a very difficult time getting into any sort of rhythm, and the smallest setback seems to completely derail any chance we have of having an effective drive.

What's surprising about that this year is that we actually do have the skill position players who can make big plays, which obviously takes pressure off of the offense to maintain long, sustained drives without making a mistake that halts the drive. I acknowledge that our OL sometimes limits what we can do, but it's still surprising to me that we aren't attempting, and not frequently converting, bigger plays. And, when I say big plays, it's not just deep shots all the way down the field, but the intermediate type routes that would get the ball to guys like Coley, Richards or Njoku in the 15-20 yard area down the field. So much of our passing game seems to happen in the 0-10 yard range, outside the hashes, without the possibility of much YAC. It's really tough to move down the field on 5-7 yard out routes without any setbacks. It's confusing to me why we aren't making more of an effort to get the ball to Coley, Njoku and Richards 20 times a game. Those 3 guys give us the best opportunity to eat up chunks of yards on individual plays.

Also, it seems pretty clear at this point that Walton is not the guy that is most effective in this offense. Again, because we tend to need so much to go right, the difference between 2nd and 8 and 2nd and 6 is important to us, and Walton is just not as effective running from the shotgun as Yearby is.

One question for you Lu - is there another college offense you can think of that operates primarily out of the shotgun, without a running QB, that isn't the air raid styple offense, with crazy OL splits (like Texas Tech or Baylor)? I know the Patriots do it some in the NFL, but in college, it just seems difficult to generate a consistent running game without the threat of the QB run or without spreading defenses out across the field to generate more space to run. Both under Coley and Richt, we've operated so much out of the shotgun, and when we face equal or better talent, our run game is shut down, making us one dimensional and making Kaaya an easy target.

 

[LuCane]

With these players, we need an approach that offers more of a cushion.

What would you suggest?

Anticipating that our opponents are going to take what we're not doing well, guess that we're going to try something to fix that, and be a step ahead of that.

If we're on a message board all of last week talking about how Kaaya was better running 4Vert under Coley, I think it was fair to assume Bud Foster and his staff were doing the same. They played defense as if they knew we were going to run that stuff every time we got into an obvious pass situation. Worse, we did. And, worse yet, our guys are just not good enough to play against that disadvantage. Kaaya's limitations are such that we need to build an offense that keeps defenses on their heels. When we threw on 1st down, as an example, we were seemingly better off (though I don't have the stats right now).

Richt is in a tough spot with the limitations. It's not all on him, but these guys ain't helping each other.

 

[MiamiVice7]

Let's make this simple: issues from all of the elements above come together to have 7 three (3) and out drives out of 14 total opportunities against VT. Against UNC, 6 of 12 drives ended in 3 and out or less. 50% of the time, we run three (3) plays and ask our defense to come back on the field to do its job.

This is f'n insane.

 

[Canesfan1899]

I would love to see us pass to set up the run instead of being so predictable on early downs. We aren't at Patrick Nix level where I was calling out plays before they were run, but it's clear the offense is lacking ingenuity and imagination.

 

[ssvir]

Playcalling is disjointed, Kaaya has been inaccurate and shaky in the pocket, the OL is garbage, the RBs continuously miss blocks, the TEs miss blocks, and the receivers are having trouble getting separation (when they do the drop more passes than any other Power 5 program this year).

Yes the offense currently blows and there is plenty of blame to go around.

 

[CanesFan23]

I think it would've been a lot easier to just say that Kaaya's lack of mobility is 90% of the reason this team is where they are right now.

An average QB with mobility would've probably had us 6-0 going into the game last night. How many times has this kid sat in the pocket for 6-7 seconds on 3rd and 4 and decided to take a sack instead of get outside the pocket and make a play?

The fact that this ended up in a sack is all that needs to be said. This doesn't show up on his yards passing, completion percentage, or td/int ratio. I'm tired of seeing his stats.

 

[LuCane]

I think it would've been a lot easier to just say that Kaaya's lack of mobility is 90% of the reason this team is where they are right now.

An average QB with mobility would've probably had us 6-0 going into the game last night. How many times has this kid sat in the pocket for 6-7 seconds on 3rd and 4 and decided to take a sack instead of get outside the pocket and make a play?

The fact that this ended up in a sack is all that needs to be said. This doesn't show up on his yards passing, completion percentage, or td/int ratio. I'm tired of seeing his stats.

View attachment 39700

Preaching to the choir on Kaaya's pocket presence and inability to shuffle/slide well enough. While watching him throw darts against a non-live DL in practice, I've spent the last few years openly asking when we'd see the jump in this phase of the game. We saw some glimpses last year, but he's simply regressed. Looks like he's sometimes seeing ghosts out there right now.

In any case, it would have been easier to say that he's "90% of the reason," but I think it'd be exaggerated and doesn't answer why our offense is statistically that much more disjointed against the same teams we played last year. Going 3 and out in these losses 2x more than we did last year is truly a big deal. So much more pressure on the team. So much less pressure on our opponents.

By the way, from re-watching some of the OL play, they struggle in a lot of different ways, but interesting that their communication has to be up there as some of their worst struggles. Guys see a twist, chip and pass to their OL mate, yet it gets lost. Really bad stuff there in terms of how they've somehow gotten worse at that while teams now have a blueprint for stunting and twisting against Kaaya.

 

[bshaw28]

We're continuously adjusting. I appreciate that. It's a clear indicator we feel we've previously made mistakes. We just can't get the timing right against what the opposing defense is throwing at us. Even when we do, then the other elements fail somehow:

1. Poor playcall, play fails.
2. The perfect playcall, yet the OL (hit or big miss) fails and our play fails.
3. The correct playcall, OL gives a very solid pocket, QB makes throw, WR drops.
4. Correct playcall, OL gives solid pocket, QB doesn't step in or slide and helps defense get sack or hurry.

Lu - always appreciate your posts and insight. I agree that there's a ton of little things adding up.

But I've noticed in the last couple weeks you've addressed most everything but the RB's.

Walton continues to be ineffective, Yearby continues to outplay him, and Gus continues to not be used at all. But Walton continues to get the majority of the carries.

It seems like a very simple & obvious switch, to give Walton's carries to Yearby & Gus, but what's your feelings on that? It would seem like it would have a big help on the passing game if we played RB's who improved our running game.

 

[LuCane]

We're continuously adjusting. I appreciate that. It's a clear indicator we feel we've previously made mistakes. We just can't get the timing right against what the opposing defense is throwing at us. Even when we do, then the other elements fail somehow:

1. Poor playcall, play fails.
2. The perfect playcall, yet the OL (hit or big miss) fails and our play fails.
3. The correct playcall, OL gives a very solid pocket, QB makes throw, WR drops.
4. Correct playcall, OL gives solid pocket, QB doesn't step in or slide and helps defense get sack or hurry.

Lu - always appreciate your posts and insight. I agree that there's a ton of little things adding up.

But I've noticed in the last couple weeks you haven't addressed the RB's in the problems with our offense.

Walton continues to be ineffective, Yearby continues to outplay him, and Gus continues to not be used at all. But Walton continues to get the majority of the carries.

It seems like a very simple & obvious switch, to give Walton's carries to Yearby & Gus, but what's your feelings on that? It would seem like it would have a big help on the passing game if we played RB's who improved our running game.

Probably because I think there are bigger issues. But, yes, it's an issue. If we're going to keep grabbing plays from the current bag, I think it's easy to see we need Yearby's ability to make a guy miss. Whoever said that his "big gainer" was when the game was already over is lost. If we're going to use Walton, it should be in what I'd prefer to see overall:

- Give up trying to run your preferred system
- Build a playbook around Kaaya and his limitations
- Throw early and often
- Pass to setup run
- Use flats and short passing game as "runs"
- Take enough shots vertically

At this point, the season has become about something else. Kaaya is almost for sure coming back. Our entire OL this year, which was our OL last year, will be our OL next year. Our WRs and TEs are very likely all coming back, sans Coley. Build an aerial attack that protects your OL with the flats, short passes over the middle and on early downs. We returned 10 guys on offense and, so far, look slightly worse and certainly more disjointed.

In short, yeah, experiment with the RBs, but we need to think longer term and bigger. How do we optimize Kaaya now and for next year?

 

[Memnon]

We're not as talented as we think...

Most of the talent on this team is on the Defensive side of the ball, particularly on the DL & in the LB corp...

The Secondary is fairly average, with the exception of Elder & Quan... But, Jenkins, Carter, Red, Colbert & the rest just aren't that good.
(Although, Young shows promise to be a solid Corner in the future once he gets more experience)

On Offense, Coley is good & Richards will be great, Joku & Herndon are good, Yearby & Walton are solid, not great but not terrible either.

The OL is simply horrendous, one of/if not the worst in D1 football & Kaaya on his best day is average, he's not great by any standard.

We should still be able to win more games with that though, because teams with far less talent still figure out how to get it done on a weekly basis, but the bottom line is, it's going to take at least another 2 recruiting classes before we really can compete in the ACC.