OrangeBowlMagic
CEO
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2014
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And let me preface this by saying I almost never, ever bet this team, and am usually WAY more optimistic than most fans. So, take this with a grain of salt, as I'm usually wrong (hence the reason I rarely bet on or against Miami).......but I think this is the last weekend for Manny here. I think we're going to get beaten rather convincingly on Saturday and, at 2-5 with yet another home loss on national TV in which we're not especially competitive as only a 3 point dog, they're going to have no choice but to finally let him go.
To me, NC State is the kind of team who can expose Miami badly. In a sense, they're a better Michigan State. The only teams that Miami can beat are teams with really poor defenses, like UVA and UNC (I know we didn't win, but both games were close and could have easily been wins), that they can potentially outscore. Or teams with very poor QBs that they can limit (App State). They can't beat good defenses. And they can't limit good QBs. If you're just a balanced team, Miami really has very little shot, because any good QB is going to score on our defense, and any good defense is going to punish our terrible OL.
NC State is exactly that, IMO. Devin Leary is a good player, and yet while he's not explosive (72nd in the country in YPA, -35 rushing yards on the year), he's very accurate and doesn't make many mistakes (65% completion rate, only 2 INTs in 6 games). Also, they have two kids who are in the top 4 in the conference in missed tackles forced. Zonovan Knight is 2nd with 35 and Ricky Person is 4th with 34. What does Miami struggle with? Limiting QB completion percentage (we're 79th in the country) and missing tackles (worst on planet Earth, possibly beyond). So, I really don't see our defense holding them under 30 points.
On offense, we've started insanely slow the last 2 games with TVD as the QB. In both his starts, we have a grand total of 1 first down in the first quarter of BOTH games combined. And what is the strength of the NC State team? Defense. This is NOT Virginia and NOT North Carolina. UVA is 106th in YPP allowed, UNC is 61st. NC State? 18th. How do they do it? They're near the bottom in sacks and TFLs, so they don't get a lot of negative plays. What they do is play smart, sound football, and they're EXCELLENT on 3rd downs. 2nd in the entire country in defensive 3rd down conversion % allowed. They also don't allow explosive plays. They've only allowed ONE play over 40 yards all year (In contrast, our defense has allowed 6). So they make you earn everything. Not a good recipe with an inaccurate, freshman QB (TVD has completed 47.2% of his passes against FBS competition, which were he qualified, would be far and away dead last in the entire country). So, I really don't see our offense scoring 30 or much above it, unless something really crazy happens (special teams/defensive TD, one of their DBs blows a hammy in coverage, penalties, etc). If this is a "normal" clean game, I really don't see how they don't win by 10+ points.
And if we go out there *AGAIN* against a team who has less talent on paper than we do, at home, on ESPN2, in primetime, and lose something like 35-23, how can you possibly justify keeping a 2-5 Manny when we'll essentially be officially eliminated from any and all of our preseason goals? I don't see how you can justify keeping him now, but I guess the dumbass thinking is "well, the games were close and the team is competitive". Sadly, I don't think that will be the case this week.
(All this to say, bet your life on Miami. We're going to win 58-10, because nothing makes any ******* sense around here)
To me, NC State is the kind of team who can expose Miami badly. In a sense, they're a better Michigan State. The only teams that Miami can beat are teams with really poor defenses, like UVA and UNC (I know we didn't win, but both games were close and could have easily been wins), that they can potentially outscore. Or teams with very poor QBs that they can limit (App State). They can't beat good defenses. And they can't limit good QBs. If you're just a balanced team, Miami really has very little shot, because any good QB is going to score on our defense, and any good defense is going to punish our terrible OL.
NC State is exactly that, IMO. Devin Leary is a good player, and yet while he's not explosive (72nd in the country in YPA, -35 rushing yards on the year), he's very accurate and doesn't make many mistakes (65% completion rate, only 2 INTs in 6 games). Also, they have two kids who are in the top 4 in the conference in missed tackles forced. Zonovan Knight is 2nd with 35 and Ricky Person is 4th with 34. What does Miami struggle with? Limiting QB completion percentage (we're 79th in the country) and missing tackles (worst on planet Earth, possibly beyond). So, I really don't see our defense holding them under 30 points.
On offense, we've started insanely slow the last 2 games with TVD as the QB. In both his starts, we have a grand total of 1 first down in the first quarter of BOTH games combined. And what is the strength of the NC State team? Defense. This is NOT Virginia and NOT North Carolina. UVA is 106th in YPP allowed, UNC is 61st. NC State? 18th. How do they do it? They're near the bottom in sacks and TFLs, so they don't get a lot of negative plays. What they do is play smart, sound football, and they're EXCELLENT on 3rd downs. 2nd in the entire country in defensive 3rd down conversion % allowed. They also don't allow explosive plays. They've only allowed ONE play over 40 yards all year (In contrast, our defense has allowed 6). So they make you earn everything. Not a good recipe with an inaccurate, freshman QB (TVD has completed 47.2% of his passes against FBS competition, which were he qualified, would be far and away dead last in the entire country). So, I really don't see our offense scoring 30 or much above it, unless something really crazy happens (special teams/defensive TD, one of their DBs blows a hammy in coverage, penalties, etc). If this is a "normal" clean game, I really don't see how they don't win by 10+ points.
And if we go out there *AGAIN* against a team who has less talent on paper than we do, at home, on ESPN2, in primetime, and lose something like 35-23, how can you possibly justify keeping a 2-5 Manny when we'll essentially be officially eliminated from any and all of our preseason goals? I don't see how you can justify keeping him now, but I guess the dumbass thinking is "well, the games were close and the team is competitive". Sadly, I don't think that will be the case this week.
(All this to say, bet your life on Miami. We're going to win 58-10, because nothing makes any ******* sense around here)
