Highly Rated HS QBs attrition (according to The Athletic article)

[da truth]

Maybe then not a good place to spend millions of NIL dollars out of high school?

So fsu model is sustainable now? Interesting

 

[Canesq]

But with this approach, you can't miss in the portal if you need one, otherwise you're super ****ed.

See UF 2023.

 

[CaneSinceForEver]

QB recruiting is a crap shoot just like every other position.

 

[AtrainCane]

So fsu model is sustainable now? Interesting

at quarterback it is.

 

[AtlAtty]

So fsu model is sustainable now? Interesting

Every school will need to continue to tinker with how NIL money is spent the most wisely and with greatest ROI. I think NIL spending 5 years from now will look different than today as more data is received. Even without the NCAA’s unnecessary and incompetent meddling.

We are at the beginning of a new market and new markets have inefficiencies that are not known until there is enough data. I honestly don’t know if the correct model has been understood yet but smart colleges with people who understand budgets should arrive at the correct model sooner rather than later. I hope Zo’s experience in the NFL will hasten our transition.

 

[Home Slice]

Much more stressful jobs in life and don’t pay anywhere what these coaches make.

You’re paid 8 million a year for a reason.

Yeah, I'm just older now. Can't handle that kind of grind now. Crootin has gotten more complicated as has player retention

 

[90scane]

Washington is getting ****ed by doing this. They went all in on Huard to get him to sign. Fenix comes back for one extra year and he bounces, along with their '23 commit flipping to OSU before signing day. Now they don't have **** for depth. 3 QB's on the roster

They likely go to the portal to get one from the 70% that are transferring.

The Purdy approach should be important to kids/parents. Spend four years playing at any P5 and hope for an NFL future.

 

[DC3]

They likely go to the portal to get one from the 70% that are transferring.

The Purdy approach should be important to kids/parents. Spend four years playing at any P5 and hope for an NFL future.

Hard to pick up a kid who is in the portal because he wants to play immediately and get him to come sit a year and then have to battle for the starting job the next year.

 

[mossmadness]

DMoney makes this argument on the podcast as well. That no position has a bigger bust rate than QB, and so the money isn’t worth being spent on 5* QBs, but spent somewhere else.

Here’s the Top 5 QBs according to 247 the last few cycles for which we have a sample size of any kind:

‘22:

1. Allar (played some as tFR, has already run off QBs on the roster. Flashed during his limited PT).
2. Klubnik (started and flashed as a tFR. Ran off starter).
3. Weigman (N/A)
4. Ty Simpson (N/A)
5. Brown (N/A)

‘21 (including all Top 50 recruits)

1. Ewers (starting and has flashed)
2. Williams (Heisman winner)
3. Huard (moving towards bust territory)
4. Maye (Heisman candidate)
5. Vandagriff (looks to be UGA starting QB)
6. McCarthy (led UM to playoffs)
7. Salter (arrested and dismissed right away. too early to tell, but maybe moving to bust)
8. McCord (N/A, in battle to be next starter this spring)

‘20:

1. Young (Heisman)
2. DJU (solid starter, but not a superstar)
3. Stroud (superstar)
4. Prater (in battle for QB job. More of a bust)
5. Jackson (now a RB)

‘19 (Rattler was the only 5*, as it was a really down year for QB recruits. Only two in the Top 50 overall).

1. Rattler (has flashed but also struggled. A bust relative to his ranking)
2. Daniels (okay to average).
3. Bo Nix (up and down. But was pretty elite last season).
4. Sam Howell (outside of Top 100 overall recruits. Was very good).
5. Max Duggan (up and down, largely due to offense and team around him. Heisman worthy under Dykes and led TCU to championship game).

‘18:

1. Trevor (superstar)
2. Fields (superstar)
3. JT Daniels (bust)
4. McKee (was very good for a bad Sanford team. Probably a second to early third day NFL pick)
5. Rogers (outside of the Top 50 recruits. A bust).


That’s 5 years. There’s very few dudes that aren’t at least starter worthy. And a ton of elite players.

And the services basically nail it. In years where they have a bunch of QBs in the Top 50 overall recruits, those guys play at that level. In years where they say they aren’t overly confident about the QBs, those guys tend to not be stars.

But if you took your NIL money and randomly paid for one these recruits every year, you’d basically guarantee a stud QB starting for you every season. It’s a great NIL investment.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

So fsu model is sustainable now? Interesting

When it's focused at QB, I'd call it the old Oklahoma model.

 

[UMFarArcher]

You just signed a top-50 QB. The odds he stays have never been lower

To better understand the ROI of QB recruiting, let’s examine four recruiting classes and see how many QBs succeeded where they signed.

theathletic.com

"The Athletic studied the careers of the top 50 high school quarterbacks who signed with FBS programs in the recruiting classes of 2017 through 2020. More than 70 percent have transferred during their time in college."

"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."

"But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10: Ewers, Williams, Sam Huard, Jake Garcia and Jaxson Dart. Many more could enter the portal in May if spring competitions don’t go their way. That’s just how it goes now for young quarterbacks trying to make it in this era of college football: start or depart."

So.

If we want three QB's in the stable, we need to have ten QB's to sign with us in a given year.

Statistically.

 

[GojiraCane]

Honestly, this is probably correct.

I think QB is one of the most volatile positions on the ranking websites bc they fall in love with physical tools.

But being successful at QB is so much more than physical tools. The mental aspect is typically unaccounted for.

I'm not sold on this thought yet, but taking 1 developmental qb a year and hitting the portal as needed may be the beat move.

But with this approach, you can't miss in the portal if you need one, otherwise you're super ****ed.

Potentially Florida.

 

[GojiraCane]

So fsu model is sustainable now? Interesting

We’ll see. FSU’s model is similar to Snyder’s K State endeavors. Load up on veteran players who are older and have years of strength and conditioning. Overwhelm younger teams that are more talented on paper by virtue of this advantage.

In the NIL era, another advantage is that if you can get a transfer with three years of eligibility left you’re in a sweet spot. The kid used his free transfer and is hard pressed to leave if he doesn’t like FSU after year 1.