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Guesstimation Time

CaneThang2020 said:
TVD - 3200 yards and 31 TDs and 5 INTs
Parrish - 730 yards and 6 TDs (3 players with 400+)
Young - 970 yards and 11 TDs
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I like the 30 TDs and feel that’s what we need to hit to be really good. I just don’t think he/we hit that mark with 3200 yards. More like 3500 at least for 30 TDs.
 
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ghost2 said:
I think the team finishes with 2000 yards rushing from scrimmage this year all told. TVDs numbers are probably low but I'm not ready to just assume he'll be a 3000 yard passer right now.
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I have always loved your posts and agree with you 99% of the time but this is that 1%. 2200 yards? You're not ready to assume that TVD will be a 3000 yard passer? Why not? It's the only assumption that makes any sense unless you think he is still hurt.
 
FrancisSawyer said:
I have always loved your posts and agree with you 99% of the time but this is that 1%. 2200 yards? You're not ready to assume that TVD will be a 3000 yard passer? Why not? It's the only assumption that makes any sense unless you think he is still hurt.
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Yet another new OC, coming off injury, unproven or questionable supporting cast. I have us 7-5 this year with an outside shot at 8-4. I did admit the 2200 was low, I could see 25-2800 but not 3k.

I've also been known to have scorching hot preseason takes that end up being complete bantha poodoo by season's end, so really it's just a conversation starter masked by a porst lol.
 
I also wonder if those that think TVD throws for 3500 yds and 30 TDs also think we go 7-5/8-4. Cause if TVD puts up those numbers they gotta believe we're winning the ACC, no?
 
ghost2 said:
Yet another new OC, coming off injury, unproven or questionable supporting cast. I have us 7-5 this year with an outside shot at 8-4. I did admit the 2200 was low, I could see 25-2800 but not 3k.

I've also been known to have scorching hot preseason takes that end up being complete bantha poodoo by season's end, so really it's just a conversation starter masked by a porst lol.
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Those are fair points. I also have us at 7-5 with an outside shot at 8-4 but I think that Van Dyke is chomping at the bit to show what he can do. He's a Junior now and has gone through his share. I think Dawson's offense is the perfect fit. I think he's going to sling that rock silly. I think we will run for 2200 and pass for 3300 for the season.
 
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FrancisSawyer said:
Those are fair points. I also have us at 7-5 with an outside shot at 8-4 but I think that Van Dyke is chomping at the bit to show what he can do. He's a Junior now and has gone through his share. I think Dawson's offense is the perfect fit. I think he's going to sling that rock silly. I think we will run for 2200 and pass for 3300 for the season.
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That'd be a Lashlee-esque 450 yards/game which I will take every day. I love Dawson's offense for what we're building, I'm just still on eggshells about TVD taking that next leap.
 
ghost2 said:
That'd be a Lashlee-esque 450 yards/game which I will take every day. I love Dawson's offense for what we're building, I'm just still on eggshells about TVD taking that next leap.
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That's understandable I suppose. My point of view is based on TVD being healthy, a much improved OL, a much better OC whose style fits our QB and an improved WR corps who are not being coached by the biggest fraud in college coaching. Instead our WRs have a real position coach in KB who will teach the fundamentals that were glaringly absent under that buffoon Gattis as well as techniques used to create separation. I suppose I should add to that the 3 mismatches we have at TE and a RB stable that could grow into a very good unit. There is certainly talent there. The trick is for Dawson to properly integrate them into the offense depending on each RBs particular strengths.

I think our offense has a big comeback year for us. I'm not saying that they will necessarily be an elite unit but they will be a fun offense to watch and they will get better and better throughout the season. For example, the OL will certainly improve the more games they play together and the more reps the youngsters like Mauigoa and Okunlola get. Then you have to figure that it will take a few games to really set the WR rotation, plus figure out what we can do with all those TEs. Finally we have no idea right now which RBs will step up during the season. Does Chaney stay healthy and play like we all know he is capable of playing? Does Mark Fletcher overtake Chaney and breakout as a true freshman? Does Parrish keep the starting job or is he relagated to more of a third down role? Where does Ajay Allen fit in? Does Chris Johnson earn a role this year and will Dawson be able to find a way to use his game breaking speed?
 
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Just for reference. Stephen Morris (senior year) threw for 3,024 yards, 21 TDs, & 12 INTs.
Went 9 - 3.

You know how many Canes QBs have thrown for 3k yards in multiple seasons? Graig Cooper has a jersey you need to look up or remember.
 
ghost2 said:
I also wonder if those that think TVD throws for 3500 yds and 30 TDs also think we go 7-5/8-4. Cause if TVD puts up those numbers they gotta believe we're winning the ACC, no?
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3500 yards and 30 TDs isn’t exactly record shattering. It’s a below average year at UNC and they haven’t won the ACC in forever.

I understand this is Miami and we stopped being innovative on offense 30 years ago but 3000 yards in a 12 game season is only 250 yards per game. Shannon Dawson’s offense at Houston threw for 314 yards per game last year. Even if he tones it back and Miami goes for 260-270 a game, that’s still well over 3000 yards for a season. The only way TVD finishes under 3000 is if he gets hurt and misses significant time.
 
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If our offensive line stays healthy and is legit bro we’re going to be a lot better then what you all are giving us credit for.

Mario’s teams usually make a big jump his second year I’m definitely think 8-10 wins is a reality if we can actually score in the red zone and keep corey flagg off the field we’re going to be a better team.

Expected stats tvd 3500-4000 yards 28-35 tds.

Chaney if healthy and reliable 900 yards 7-10 tds
Parrish 700 yards 5-7 tds.

Young and George close to 1800 yards between the both of them if healthy 15 tds.

Restrepo 700 yards 7-9 tds depending on how often we use him on gadget plays.

Aaroyo 400 yards if healthy 6 tds.
 
OP are your numbers ACC Only?
Are you expecting COVID23 and only playing 8 games?
Do our running backs have 800/700/700/700/500 and we are just playing old school d and our OL takes a huge leap and is mauling people?
 
If he’s healthy and stays healthy…

If he picks up the offense…

If he doesn’t start slow every game…

If he commits to the team…

If the OL is drastically improved…

Good thing are QB2 is a TF gunslinger!
 
DTP said:
3500 yards and 30 TDs isn’t exactly record shattering. It’s a below average year at UNC and they haven’t won the ACC in forever.

I understand this is Miami and we stopped being innovative on offense 30 years ago but 3000 yards in a 12 game season is only 250 yards per game. Shannon Dawson’s offense at Houston threw for 314 yards per game last year. Even if he tones it back and Miami goes for 260-270 a game, that’s still well over 3000 yards for a season. The only way TVD finishes under 3000 is if he gets hurt and misses significant time.
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Except here it would be record shattering. 3500 yards would be good for 3rd all time behind Bernie and Kaaya (who barely broke 3500 in 2016.) 30 TDs would be a UM all time record.

I've come around and 3000 yards I could see if TVD is healthy - he nearly did that in 2021 with Lashlee. 3500/30 is still a stretch until I see it IMO.
 
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JSmoot said:
You know how many Canes QBs have thrown for 3k yards in multiple seasons? Graig Cooper has a jersey you need to look up or remember.
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ghost2 said:
Except here it would be record shattering. 3500 yards would be good for 3rd all time behind Bernie and Kaaya (who barely broke 3500 in 2016.) 30 TDs would be a UM all time record.

Pretty sure 3000 yards would place TVD just outside the top 10 behind Malik Rosier in 2017 - which was the last time any UM QB threw for over 3000 yards.
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This all speaks more towards the offenses UM has been running than the idea that throwing for 3000 yards is rare. We've been stuck in bro-style purgatory for two decades while the rest of the college football world has passed us by.

38 FBS quarterbacks threw for over 3000 yards last year.

TVD threw for 2900 yards in 9 games in 2021.
D'Eriq King would have gone over 3000 yards in 2020 if we had played a regular 12 game regular season instead of the 10 game covid season.
 
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DTP said:
This all speaks more towards the offenses UM has been running than the idea that throwing for 3000 yards is rare. We've been stuck in bro-style purgatory for two decades while the rest of the college football world has passed us by.

38 FBS quarterbacks threw for over 3000 yards last year.

TVD threw for 2900 yards in 9 games in 2021.
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Absolutely fair point and I am deeply hopeful the Dawson/TVD pairing gets us over that hump. But man we've been so much worse than 39th in terms of QB play the last few years it just feels like a hill to climb lol
 
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ghost2 said:
I think the team finishes with 2000 yards rushing from scrimmage this year all told. TVDs numbers are probably low but I'm not ready to just assume he'll be a 3000 yard passer right now.
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lol, TVD stays healthy, you are kidding yourself. He was 3k passer in 2021 in 9 games. Just posted this in another thread.

Career ACC Stats (Excluding the 3 ACC games in 2022 when we was injured)
~8 Games in 2021 + 2 Injury Free games in 2022: 10 Games, 63.4% for 3,508 yards, 351 ypg, 27 TDs, 7 ints. Annualized to 12 games plus a bowl game is 4,560 yards, 35 TDs.

~If you exclude his first 2 career starts (VA and UNC in '21). So last 6 in '21 and 2 injury free games in '22: 8 Games, 66.9% for 3,041 yards, 380 YPG, 25 TDs, 4 int. Annualized to full season plus a bowl game is 4,942 yards and 41 TDs.
 
FuriousStyles said:
I like the 30 TDs and feel that’s what we need to hit to be really good. I just don’t think he/we hit that mark with 3200 yards. More like 3500 at least for 30 TDs.
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I think we will be deadly in the red-zone. Colby Young fade routes and slot WRs turn and burn.
 
ghost2 said:
That'd be a Lashlee-esque 450 yards/game which I will take every day. I love Dawson's offense for what we're building, I'm just still on eggshells about TVD taking that next leap.
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3,300 / 12 is NOT 450, try 275 and it is only 253 if you include a bowl game. 450 X 12 is 5,400 and 450 x 13 is 5,850. Read my other post my friend to see his game by game stats. It will help you understand that 2,200 is really funny, unless he gets injured.

www.canesinsight.com

Expectations for this season?

7-5 with improvement as the year goes on. Important Bowl Game victory to gain momentum to an 11-2 2024 season
www.canesinsight.com www.canesinsight.com

If Dawson calls games like he did in the spring, 4,000 yards is in play and 4,500 with a bowl game.
 
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