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Getting to the ACC-CG - the simple way

hurricaneman said:
They absolutely HAVE to get out of the ACC if they want any consistent shot at the playoffs every year. You need late season marquee matchups to save seasons that have a loss or two. Two loss ACC teams have no shot while 3 loss BIG10 and SEC teams have a legit chance if the schedule at the end of the year has strong matchups. Miami can go 11-1 this season and be the 10 or 11 seed after playing and beating Notre Dame, USF, and Florida. That's how stacked the deck is against us.
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It’s it’s gotten to the point where you’re hoping every team you beat has 10 wins it’s absurd or else every loss is a bad loss. How come nobody’s crushing Alabama for losing to a bad Florida State team? And if they would’ve lost a South Carolina that’s too sub 500 losses if they lose to LSU that’s losing to an average LSU team you get my point.
 
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The easy wa
TheOriginalCane said:
I'll start this out very simply. I believe Miami needs to win the next 5 to make the ACC-CG.

There are currently TWO teams with zero ACC losses, and FIVE team with one ACC loss including Miami. Assuming we win out, we would move ahead of Pitt and SMU in the conference standings. Thus there are four problematic teams, and we would need to finish in the #2 (or #1) spot to make the ACC-CG.

Duke - currently 3-1 in ACC. Duke plays AT CLEMSON, hosts UVa, plays AT UNC, and hosts Wake. I highly doubt they win all 4, meaning we could bypass Duke with one or more Duke losses.

Louisville - also 3-1 in the ACC. Having missed our shot to put a second loss on Louisvillle, they now play AT VATECH, host Cal, host Clemson, and play AT SMU. Maybe I should start rooting for a Clemson resurgence, they could kill two birds with one stone.

UVa - currently 4-0 in the ACC. UVa plays AT CAL, hosts Wake, plays AT DUKE, and hosts VaTech. Ideally, we'd root for Cal/Wake wins, I'm just not sure if UVa will drop two, so we may need to best them on a tiebreaker.

GaTech - currently 5-0 in the ACC, so they'd need to drop 2 out of 3. GaTech plays at NC State, at Boston College, and then hosts Pitt.

Assuming Miami wins out and Duke, Louisville, and UVa take one more loss, I'd need a refresher on a 2-team tiebreaker (UM, UVa) where those teams don't play in the regular season.
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The easy way is just win. Everything else will work itself out.

Mario just needs to keep winning 10+ games a year. The residual effect of that will compound in all areas of the program.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
With their best win being…USC? navy? I’ll never say the committee won’t do ND favors, of course they will. But if the last spot is Miami vs ND, we’re 11-1 with better wins, the best of them being literally over ND. We’ll discuss this 700 more times over the next month so no reason to go nuts now, there are so many big games to be played but I don’t see a world where 11–1 Miami is out.

Now, 11-2 with a loss in Charlotte…..
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Louisville losing ACC CG and finishing #2 is the scariest scenario. 11-2 Louisville vs 11-1 Miami for the ACC at large bid. There are more arguments to make in favor of Miami, but Louisville has the trump card... head to head win (over #2) on the road.

It depends on how much the committee is willing to penalize Louisville for losing the extra game against another playoff bound team. How much that matters has varied over the years.

Also GT finishing undefeated (win over UGA) but losing the ACC CG would be a disaster scenario. GT probably gets the at-large slot and the ACC doesn't get a 3rd team in (Miami).
 
ACC championship game is irrelevant in today’s landscape. In fact, we’d be better off not making the game, rest up & then moving into playoffs. Off week might be advantageous vs. playing in championship game.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Just between us girls, and we all know this won’t happen, but it would be so interesting if GT wins out, as in beats UGA, and finishes 12-0. They’re obviously in the ACCCG, and probably ranked #2 or #3 in the CFP rankings.

Miami wins out and is 11-1. Probably ranked, 5th? 6th? 7th at worst?

Louisville wins out, and wins the ACCCG.

They’re 12-1, ACC Champs.
GT is 12-1, ACC runners up
Miami is 11-1

VERY interesting. Obviously on the surface, 3 ACC teams are in. And that might be the verdict. But I’ll bet no one on the planet would admit right now that the ACC could get 3 in. Who gets left out? The B1G is almost certainly getting at least 3. ND at 10-2 is out? Ehhhhh. The G5 rep is in. Big 12 is in. That’s 6. So ACC gets 3 and SEC gets 3? People will set fire to whatever building these clowns hold the playoff discussions in. I’m here for it.
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In this scenario where Miami, UL, and GT all get in.

You’d have 3 B1G, 3 SEC, 3 ACC, ND at 10-2, G5, and 1 B12.
 
CreamCityCane said:
Louisville losing ACC CG and finishing #2 is the scariest scenario. 11-2 Louisville vs 11-1 Miami for the ACC at large bid. There are more arguments to make in favor of Miami, but Louisville has the trump card... head to head win (over #2) on the road.

It depends on how much the committee is willing to penalize Louisville for losing the extra game against another playoff bound team. How much that matters has varied over the years.

Also GT finishing undefeated (win over UGA) but losing the ACC CG would be a disaster scenario. GT probably gets the at-large slot and the ACC doesn't get a 3rd team in (Miami).
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There is not an ACC at large bid
The lowest ranked playoff team is out if conference champ moves in
11-1 miami will be no where near the bubble
 
tdjones34 said:
There is not an ACC at large bid
The lowest ranked playoff team is out if conference champ moves in
11-1 miami will be no where near the bubble
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The only safe spot is 10 or below. There's a chance the American and BIG12 kick two teams out.
 
I don’t think nd gets in with 2 losses and no conference championship game. Plus a head to head loss vs another team vying to get in
 
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305407cane said:
I don’t think nd gets in with 2 losses and no conference championship game. Plus a head to head loss vs another team vying to get in
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If ND wins out, they are definitely going to be in. Both their losses have been by a combined 4 points, and they have the win against USC. ESPN isn't leaving them out unfortunately
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
IMO there’s a wayyyy bigger chance the ACC gets 1 in versus 3.

There’s just no way they let 3 ACC teams in barring some unprecedented carnage. The league stinks.
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No way all that happens
But as of today better chance of 3 ACC than a 1 loss Miamo team not making it
 
First of all we need to win out. 10-2 isn't going to get it this year unless a lot of weird upsets the rest of the way.

Where we come out on Tuesday in the first official ranking is important. We want to be #10 or preferably 9 or better. If not, there is risk imho even if we run the table. Major risks are:

1. a team ranked lower than us wins the big 12 or Acc championship, they get in and the team they beat, eg, Ga Tech stays ranked above us
2. Committee playing favorites with a 10-2 ND team that we beat. Really would like to USC take another loss to show how pathetic the ND wins were.

I think the emphasis on conference championships should be greatly reduced because without divisions the disparity in who you play is enormous. UVA's schedule in particular is a joke. The, of course, beat Louisvillke in OT and we lost to them. But the rest of their schedule is a joke.
 
I’m curious to see if 11 and one plus an ACC championship doesn’t get you in the top four. Then what’s the point of a conference championship game?
 
canesstevealum08 said:
I’m curious to see if 11 and one plus an ACC championship doesn’t get you in the top four. Then what’s the point of a conference championship game?
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The committee seeds the field.

The preliminary mock ESPN showed the other day had both OSU and Indiana with a first round bye
 
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canesstevealum08 said:
I’m curious to see if 11 and one plus an ACC championship doesn’t get you in the top four. Then what’s the point of a conference championship game?
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If somehow Louisville or GT were top 10 and our opponent i could see us being in the top 4. Especially if Notre Dame is 10-2 and/or USF is in the playoff.
 
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