Alot of DT's go off the board in the first 4 rounds. I could see why our guys may consider leaving early. Unless coming back gets them picked in the first round, the money difference isn't all that different from rounds 2-4 . In the last 2 drafts 30 DTs were picked in the first 4 rounds.
I don't have the time to do the analysis. But I'd really be interested in seeing the odds of a DT making a roster by round, especially the later rounds where Norton will most likely wind up. And secondarily, I'd like to see the odds of them getting a second contract.
Everyone talks about how the money is similar after the first 2 rounds. But I'll bet that the probability of earning that money is massively different, especially after round 4, since very little is guaranteed beyond round 4 (~750K in 3, 500K in 4, <200K in 5 and <100K in 6 and 7). Other than those guarantees, athletes are essentially living paycheck to paycheck, and can be released at any time. But teams don't want to release an athlete if they drafted them and gave them guaranteed money in those first 3-4 rounds..