They probably win at least 5. Their schedule is weak. Don't let the SEC hype machine fool you. They have 4 tough opponents (Ole Miss, Texas, UGA, OU), 5 very bad/below average opponents (FAU, Campbell, SC, UK, FSU) and 3 mid/average opponents (Auburn, Mizzou, Vandy). Auburn could technically be considered a bad team. I felt they had some pieces and just found ways to lose last year. This isn't UF's 2024 schedule which was actually brutal.
Now, the wheels could come off after their first 3 conference games. At Auburn, Ole Miss at home, and at Mizzou. Neither Auburn or Mizzou are good, but they play better at home and will give UF fits. It's very possible SC could surprise them at home and then UK later in the season on the road. No, SC and UK are not good, but they are much better than FAU and Campbell.