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Tears Gator Tears

RVACane said:
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Yo snurfy the only level headed dude in there. If he even writes about gator recruits I'm going to trust him more than anyone on that site. All of them besides him seem like super 15-0 homers. No type of logical thinking or common sense.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
he says 4star is +2 pts, and 3star is -2pts.

Basically what is happening is Miami's LOWEST 4star recruit is Robby Washington with a 93.54 rating. UF has 15 recruits with a rating lower than that 93.54, but are still technically a 4star according to 247 composite. They have 3 players with a rating above our 9th highest rated player.

We can all make up a counting system... **** I'll make one right now that'll devalue quantity and low level players:

>98 = 15pts
96-98 = 10pts
93-96= 7pts
91-93 = 4pts
88-91 = 2pts
86-88 = 1pt
<86 = 0pts.
Then we assign 3pts value for any open spots to get a class size of 25. And subtract 3 pts for every spot above 25 taken. Then divide by 25. Cube root. divide by 0.04. Assign letter grade. Among the top 13 composite ranked teams the results would be:

New Rank (+/- composite), School = Total pts/Class size = Grade ... Letter Grade

1. Bama = 154/20 = 101.8 ... A+
2 (+3). UGA = 117/18 = 95.19 ... A
3 (-1). ND =128/23= 94.26 ... A
4. Ohio St = 115/20 = 93.31 ... A
5. (-2) Texas = 116/22 = 92.1 ... A-
6. LSU = 108/20 = 91.6 ... A-
7 (+2). Miami = 98/17 = 91.36 ... A-
8 (-1). Oklahoma = 102/20 = 90.09 ... A-
9 (-1). Clemson = 99/20 = 89.32 ... B+
10 (+3). USC = 80/15 = 88.26 ... B+
11 (-1). UF = 84/20 = 85.21 ... B
12 (-1). PSU = 78/19 = 84.34 ... B
13 (-1). UTenn = 75/20 = 82.55 ... B-

So what would this methodology tell us? Georgia, Miami, and USC are undervalued because we have have more top end talent then the peers within 3 spots of our composite ranking, AND enough open spots available in the class to further increase the talent gap. It also tells us that Alabama is absolutely dominating with high end talent in this class.
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I almost did this myself, but didn’t want to waste my time. I’m glad you did. The point is that stats can be manipulated to produce desired results. The truth is that Bama has the most desirable players. The players most recruited by the best teams. Miami is behind that, but still quite a bit ahead of UF. That’s the easiest way to explain it. Well done. I almost did exactly this same thing.
 
Let’s not forget these sites have 2-3 more updates and there are still a lot of recruits out there uncommitted or that will flip. Beyond the top 3-4 my guess is things will look very different by Thanksgiving.
 
OriginalCanesCanesCanes said:
Of course they’re going to land kids, every P5 program land kids, especially ones that aren’t in the bottom tier.

This isn’t Kansas, Syracuse, Vanderbilt or even Missouri.

Everybody fills up their slots.

The question is what kind of recruits are they, and what needs do they fill. From my perspective, they’re recruiting to perennial 8–4 (if that) type seasons, not much better than that.

They could have Donald Duck as their coach, and they’d be landing recruits in more or less the same category. Let’s give it a couple years and see if this guy with his G5 staph can even come close to the past two coaches who weren’t world beaters.
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This is real talk. Miami, FSU and UF will always get theirs. The questions is will they get the ones that matter. Top 100/200 kids are who really matter in college football. I have faith in our player evaluations and coaching between the lines now. They don’t matter as long as we get the best kids. We are and they’re not. I do think Billy will be ok there. Ok isn’t the bar…
 
 
Ajcane8 said:
In this genius rating system straight from fairytale land, .8927 Marcus Stokes (a Penn St. commit that absolutely no one on that board wanted 10 days ago) and .8903 creed whittemore are worth 2 points, but .8869 Antonio Tripp and .8847 Connor Lew (commit-able offers from Georgia and Clemson) and… lose you 2 points.

Make that make sense.

Oh, and they’re actively trying to “steal” our lowest rated recruit because they can’t sign a single person to come play tackle for them.
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First thing I thought of when I saw Smurphy’s comments about who he’d take from our commits - “you’d take Tinilau too since your coach is trying.”
 
calinative umstudent said:
he says 4star is +2 pts, and 3star is -2pts.

Basically what is happening is Miami's LOWEST 4star recruit is Robby Washington with a 93.54 rating. UF has 15 recruits with a rating lower than that 93.54, but are still technically a 4star according to 247 composite. They have 3 players with a rating above our 9th highest rated player.

We can all make up a counting system... **** I'll make one right now that'll devalue quantity and low level players:

>98 = 15pts
96-98 = 10pts
93-96= 7pts
91-93 = 4pts
88-91 = 2pts
86-88 = 1pt
<86 = 0pts.
Then we assign 3pts value for any open spots to get a class size of 25. And subtract 3 pts for every spot above 25 taken. Then divide by 25. Cube root. divide by 0.04. Assign letter grade. Among the top 13 composite ranked teams the results would be:

New Rank (+/- composite), School = Total pts/Class size = Grade ... Letter Grade

1. Bama = 154/20 = 101.8 ... A+
2 (+3). UGA = 117/18 = 95.19 ... A
3 (-1). ND =128/23= 94.26 ... A
4. Ohio St = 115/20 = 93.31 ... A
5. (-2) Texas = 116/22 = 92.1 ... A-
6. LSU = 108/20 = 91.6 ... A-
7 (+2). Miami = 98/17 = 91.36 ... A-
8 (-1). Oklahoma = 102/20 = 90.09 ... A-
9 (-1). Clemson = 99/20 = 89.32 ... B+
10 (+3). USC = 80/15 = 88.26 ... B+
11 (-1). UF = 84/20 = 85.21 ... B
12 (-1). PSU = 78/19 = 84.34 ... B
13 (-1). UTenn = 75/20 = 82.55 ... B-

So what would this methodology tell us? Georgia, Miami, and USC are undervalued because we have have more top end talent then the peers within 3 spots of our composite ranking, AND enough open spots available in the class to further increase the talent gap. It also tells us that Alabama is absolutely dominating with high end talent in this class.
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Holy shît, you’re really good at math. Lol That’s actually far more reasonable than what that gator did. Look at the points:

B251D6C6-8D9B-450C-B15B-715973283D00.jpeg


why is a 5 star to a 4 star a 3 point difference and 4 star to 3 star a 4 point difference? It’s so stupid. They’re valuing kids by label only.
 
Dwinstitles said:
Yo snurfy the only level headed dude in there. If he even writes about gator recruits I'm going to trust him more than anyone on that site. All of them besides him seem like super 15-0 homers. No type of logical thinking or common sense.
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He’s a mixed bag. He’ll post stuff like this but he’ll also post stuff like Mario’s a mediocre recruiter.
 
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wnycanesfan said:
View attachment 204270
They must not teach math at UF. How do we only have 5 points in this guys system? Putting aside he gives 2 points for 3 and 4 stars like they are the same level of player we should have 37 points in his system based on the 247 composite. Of course that puts us in tier 1 and goes against his narrative.
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I consider myself to be of average intelligence and I wasn’t able to decipher this code
 
RVACane said:
Holy shît, you’re really good at math. Lol That’s actually far more reasonable than what that gator did. Look at the points:

View attachment 204282

why is a 5 star to a 4 star a 3 point difference and 4 star to 3 star a 4 point difference? It’s so stupid. They’re valuing kids by label only.
Click to expand...
They're 4 star heavy, so it was really easy for them to come up with a system that rewards 4 stars as if they're all equal. Then he said "penalize 3 stars since we don't have any".

This is the hard lesson we've learned. 5 stars should have a low bust rate. 4 stars have a moderate bust rate. 3 stars have a low hit rate. But 4 stars are suffering from grade inflation. Everyone is a four star nowadays (or so it seems). It's better to look at the number next to the name than the amount of stars. In aggregate, that's more predictive of success.
 
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