I agree with your assessment.
Allow me to add a couple of additional points. I think there is a huge difference (and the recruits can pick up on it) between Mullet's baseless trash-talking style of arrogance and Manny's infectious style of ****y pump-up approach. Let's also not forget that UM interviewed Mullet twice for the head coaching job at UM and failed to make an offer to him twice.
When I was at UM, I was in a fraternity, and while the "recruiting" is a bit different than what takes place in Division I football, the psychological and behavioral approaches can be strikingly similar. When you are in the middle of trying to rush pledges against numerous other fraternities, you get the chance to observe both the targets (some guys like to have their asses kissed, some guys want honesty, some guys try to get bids from fraternities that are not the right fit because they perceive a challenge, etc.) and the people trying to "sell" their own fraternities.
To extrapolate a bit more, Mullet is the kind of guy who "rushes" recruits in a very arrogant fashion, acting as if everyone should be honored to get a bid from his fraternity, but even more than that, that his "approval" of a particular candidate should somehow convey greatness, and that he is a particularly good judge of this greatness. He's the kind of whitebread frat boy who you can imagine posing for pictures by wearing a white oxford, red tie, blue blazer, khaki pants...and then making the Rocafella "dynasty" hand sign to show he is relevant and down with the homies.
On the other hand, Manny is a guy who can quickly and sincerely connect with a lot of types of guys during a rush function. Manny isn't the tallest or strongest or fastest or best looking guy at the rush party, but he has the sincerity to make a strong handshake and learn a guy's name, where he's from, what he's majoring in, etc. Then, Manny can crack jokes, pull a few guys into a conversation, and leave a great impression. Manny is the guy that you wish you had 20 of during rush, that if you had more guys like him, you would have no problems getting a full pledge class, because he is a closer. Manny is the guy who can acknowledge that, hey, our fraternity may not be the defending Greek Week champ, or we may not have won the most intramural trophies, but that with pledges like you, the sky is the limit, and there are a lot of guys who want that chance to build something of their own.
I don't know exactly how Miami "outrecruited" Florida for Rivers, but I would imagine it is some combination of the above. That Mullet and his buddies acted as if Rivers should pick UF because of geography, recent superiority, and that an offer from UF should be some magical rose at the UF Bachelor Rose Ceremony. While Manny was a tireless ball of energy, telling Rivers all of the specifics about how The New Miami is changing the narrative, building for the future, and targeting the guys who can recognize the plan and execute on the plan. Manny was not scared to go outside of the SoFla comfort zone to "rush" a guy that he thinks will fit in at The New Miami, and he wasn't just chasing a pretty 5-star girl in California (with multiple prior decommits) to pump up his rankings.
There IS a difference, and I think the difference will come to be more recognizable over the next few years. There is a lot of familiarity here, Manny used to work for Mullet, Mullet used to work at UF as an assistant, Mullet interviewed at UM twice, etc. And when you are in a fraternity, and you know about all of the other fraternities because you are classmates with the other guys and you are active in campus events with the other guys, it gives you a good insight into the arrogance and overconfidence of other people, and how to create your own approach that is both contrasting and sincere.
The evidence is building. Mullet is chasing stars because he feels he needs to placate the Gaytor frat-boy fans and because he is insecure enough to think that is what will make him successful. And yes, you can be both insecure and arrogant at the same time. Often, insecurity is what drives arrogance. Meanwhile, Manny is just doing his thing, being his best self, embracing the good with the bad. Is Miami known for outrageous bling? Sure, create a turnover chain and arrive at a booster club event on a yacht. But he also knows how to connect to 18-year old kids today, he is great at being relevant with social media while avoiding the pitfalls of mocking the poses of the latest flavor-of-the-month rapper.
I've seen Manny up close. When you hear him talk about the prep for the UF game, how he brought the team to the same hotel where they will be staying in August, they had the same pre-game meal they will have in August, they did the same run-throughs they will do in August...you realize that THIS GUY is incredibly detail-oriented, that he knows how to take the same bunch of players from the depths of 7-6 to the consistent and sustained levels of excellence and dominance that he expects.
Meanwhile, Mullet is spending all of his free time devising flame wars with Kirby and UGa fans. And then, even worse, he tries to deny that he tried to flame UGa. Good lord, when Mullet does it, HE SHOULD OWN IT. It does him no good to make 14,000 day jokes and then come back and say that he never did it. What's next, Mullet is going to tell everyone that he didn't know what it meant to put his fingers up to his teeth in that photo?
Mullet is an insincere, insecure, arrogant whitebread-khaki-wearing-frat-boy who has lived on daddy's (Urban's) success for far too long. Mullet doesn't know how to do his own laundry, pay his own bills, or change the oil in his own car. Mullet lies to guys during rush week by telling them that UF is "top 10 in academics and top 10 in athletics", and his pledges are too stupid to figure out the truth. Mullet is the guy who thinks that his fraternity is sooo diverse because they have guys from Florida AND Texas AND California AND New York (while all the guys in the composite photos look incredibly similar). Mullet likes to tease everyone else with insults and nicknames, and then yell at everyone who "can't take a joke". Mullet likes to blame the guys who depledge his fraternity and claim that those losers were homesick "mama's boys".
Meanwhile, most guys like spending time with Manny, he knows how to both "work hard" and "play hard". And he knows how to both sell the vision for the future and lead people to that future.
for not getting my text tone bro. 
