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Gamblers- Week 3

I'm staying away from Hawaii only because its 6am Hawai time when that game kicks off tomorrow.
 
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For_The_U said:
Yeah, very unimpressive. Covered tho. Where was the weather?!? Was gorgeous out all game. I played the 2nd half under 28.5 because weather site showed rain and wind by 8. Sh-t way my profit on the spread cover. Wtf
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Maybe I watched a different game :) I thought BC looked very good on O. QB made several nice deep throws and the OL looked solid blocking for their stud RB. D was avr.
 
BC special teams and run defense was a disaster. But they might be a slight favorite vs Miami in October if we don’t get our act together.
 
scrantoncane said:
TCU win total was 7.5. It should be a down year. They are traditionally great ATS when playing superior opponents, but OSU might be too much for them. Personally, I’d stay away from that game.

I’m gonna put Army out there. Hawaii is traveling a longggg way for a noon kickoff.
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I'll take TCU to cover the points, but lose the game to mighty OSwho. This is another CIRCLED CALENDAR GAME. Akin to the Toledo affaire. And TCU will be more than ready to play, and won't be in awe of mighty OSwho.
 
Texans -3 if you can take it before the line moves. Titans have both tackles hurt and the coaches said Gabbert will probably get some burn at QB.
 
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Captain Uberpants said:
I’m happy I jumped on Miami -10 a few days ago, it’s up to 12 on my book now.

Had a nice win with Memphis last night -28.
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I hate to bet too much on any one game but I also jumped on this one big at -10.Hopefully, we come out fired up right from the start and runaway with this one.
 
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Novacane32000 said:
Trying to see if betting in the direction of line movement gives one an advantage.

Example: Miami opened -11 vs Toledo. Line is now -10.5 which means the line has moved toward Toledo. Money is coming in for Toledo. Is this an indicator of which way you should bet? My last week stats of 44 games say no.
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Half point line moves are meaningless. 2+ needs to be looked at. I'm 1-0 for the season, I posted Miami in the other thread.
 
Novacane32000 said:
Watching line movement (Smart Money)

I tracked 44 games this past weekend, to see if line movement offered the advantage many believe it has.

18 games, betting with the team that got points, won you the game
19 games, betting against the team that got points, won you the game
7 games, the line did not move.

One weekend, a small sample size but no advantage from my data.
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Line movement is everything. The closing line wins 50% of the time, so if you snag a line at a better number you inherently have >50% chance to win. The Miami game was no different, that line steamed up from -10 to -12 and not surprisingly it covered. Make sure you're checking the lines from Pinnacle.
 
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