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Gamblers- Week 3

Captain Uberpants

Captain Uberpants

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Seems like most had a successful weekend.

Here are some games I’m interested in. I didn’t put any $ yet but I’ll defintely be following these lines to see how they move.

Miami -10 (this looks like easy money but Rosier)

Penn State -34.5 (Kent state). Not a fan of big spreads but I see them running it up

UNC +14.5 (UCF) potential bounce back game?

Syracuse +2.5 (FSU) dumpster fire at FSU plus first road game of Taggart era. Syracuse ML is intriguing.

Oklahoma -18.5 (@Iowa State). Oklahoma is rolling.

Ok State -3 (Boise). Boise is solid but will be overmatched IMO.

WVU -3.5 (@NC State). Grier is too much for NC state.

Baylor -1.5 (Duke). Duke QB is out.

Bama -20 (@ole miss) is ole miss defense that bad?
 
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There might be value in that Canes line due to overreaction from the 1st week (and LSU looking pedestrian in Week 2).

Cuse hung 60 in back to back weeks. FSU scares me cause of the talent on the roster, but Cuse certainly looks like the better team through 2 weeks.
 
Green Bay +5.5 at 23-17. Rodgers always money in the bank.

I'll edit as the week goes on but for now:

Canes (-10) - On the road means Vegas thinks we have this by 2 TDs. We roll them, but I'm a blind homer lol.

Syracuse ML - Dungey has been impressive and that FSU D is swiss cheese

Oklahoma (-18.5) - Like you said, Kyler Murray is going to keep lighting it up

Wisconsin (-21, buying a point here) - Wisco 0-2 ATS to start the season, I expect a correction here

3-Team 10pt Teaser: Saints (+1), Canes (PK), Oklahoma (-7.5)

Giants (+3) @Dallas Cowboys - Dak Prescott is a fraud
 
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Kendall Boy Cane said:
Green Bay +5.5 at 23-17. Rodgers always money in the bank.

I'll edit as the week goes on but for now:

Canes (-10) - On the road means Vegas thinks we have this by 2 TDs. We roll them, but I'm a blind homer lol.

Syracuse ML - Dungey has been impressive and that FSU D is swiss cheese

Oklahoma (-18.5) - Like you said, Kyler Murray is going to keep lighting it up

Wisconsin (-21, buying a point here) - Wisco 0-2 ATS to start the season, I expect a correction here
Click to expand...

Interesting on Wisconsin. If that line drops a bit I think I may go on it.
 
Thanks for the post. Some thoughts...



Miami -10 (this looks like easy money but Rosier)
-You'd think we run away with this, but the road environment and Rosier's inconsistency scares me. I usually don't bet on my boys, so will likely skip this one.

Penn State -34.5 (Kent state). Not a fan of big spreads but I see them running it up
-I agree with you. They have a point to prove after that embarrassing performance in their opener. If they lit pit up by 35+, they should definitely do the same vs Kent State. I personally hate betting on massive lines though; have lost so many bets with late garbage time points from the other side.

UNC +14.5 (UCF) potential bounce back game?
-Eeeek, after that debacle the Heels put up this past weekend, I can't trust them against anyone.

Syracuse +2.5 (FSU) dumpster fire at FSU plus first road game of Taggart era. Syracuse ML is intriguing.
-Agree with this. Cuse is such a tough place to play, and man, FSU is reeling!

Oklahoma -18.5 (@Iowa State). Oklahoma is rolling.
-Very tough road enviroment, but yeah they are on fire. Their star RB is out for the year though. Those two factors make me a bit nervous bout them covering 18.5

Ok State -3 (Boise). Boise is solid but will be overmatched IMO.
-I think so too. Boise looked really dominant vs Troy though.

WVU -3.5 (@NC State). Grier is too much for NC state.
-Weather alert on this one! If it plays (looking like a big if right now) it's likely in tropical storm conditions. That worries me with WVU's air-based attack.

Baylor -1.5 (Duke). Duke QB is out.
-Heartbreaking losses for Duke this past weekend re injuries. Do we have any trust in Baylor though?!?

Bama -20 (@ole miss) is ole miss defense that bad?
-Ole Miss is averaging over 60pts a game. Granted, that hasn't been against Bama. The Bama Train looks unstoppable right now, but could the Rebels keep it under 3 TDs at home? Dunno.

I like BC-4 and Colorado State+20.
 
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Whats a good site you guys recommend for making bets? Can't drive over to Bama every week lol
 
Watching line movement (Smart Money)

I tracked 44 games this past weekend, to see if line movement offered the advantage many believe it has.

18 games, betting with the team that got points, won you the game
19 games, betting against the team that got points, won you the game
7 games, the line did not move.

One weekend, a small sample size but no advantage from my data.
 
memphisbred said:
Whats a good site you guys recommend for making bets? Can't drive over to Bama every week lol
Click to expand...
I use a private book that as an online interface. Several years ago I bet through bovada.lv and it was always legit. They pay once per month without a fee and never had issues there. Just make sure you keep a photograph of the front and back of any card you use to deposit. I lost my wallet once and had major problems withdrawing after that. There are probably better sites than bovada now though.
 
Novacane32000 said:
Watching line movement (Smart Money)

I tracked 44 games this past weekend, to see if line movement offered the advantage many believe it has.

18 games, betting with the team that got points, won you the game
19 games, betting against the team that got points, won you the game
7 games, the line did not move.

One weekend, a small sample size but no advantage from my data.
Click to expand...

I've thought about doing this for a while and kinda figured it would be relatively random. My natural tendency is try and fade the public and try and catch the games that get heavy sharp money played.
 
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Just got into betting last year. Did ok. Made a profit. Not much but still.....

Question is how do you know where the sharp money is? I pay attention to how lines move. I’m just never sure why. Is it cause of Sharps going one way, or cause majority is betting one way and bookies now want money on the other side, or if the bookie just wants to make one side look sweeter then it really is.

I used this site last year and had good results at first but the back kinda faded when basketball season came around.
Zcode System Line Reversals BETA — zcodesystem.com Customer System
 
Ou,ol miss,boiest,ncst,Cleveland browns won't win will cover the spread.osu-boisest take points and over.
 
Some juicy ones... I'd take Cuse, Baylor, NCS. Anyone got the old ten game college cards? Love'em.
 
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Novacane32000 said:
Watching line movement (Smart Money)

I tracked 44 games this past weekend, to see if line movement offered the advantage many believe it has.

18 games, betting with the team that got points, won you the game
19 games, betting against the team that got points, won you the game
7 games, the line did not move.

One weekend, a small sample size but no advantage from my data.
Click to expand...

For clarification, are you trying to find out if beating the closing line gives you as better chance of success long term?
 
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GuptaKnows said:
For clarification, are you trying to find out if beating the closing line gives you as better chance of success long term?
Click to expand...
Trying to see if betting in the direction of line movement gives one an advantage.

Example: Miami opened -11 vs Toledo. Line is now -10.5 which means the line has moved toward Toledo. Money is coming in for Toledo. Is this an indicator of which way you should bet? My last week stats of 44 games say no.
 
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