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Gamblers- Week 3

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Novacane32000 said:
Trying to see if betting in the direction of line movement gives one an advantage.

Example: Miami opened -11 vs Toledo. Line is now -10.5 which means the line has moved toward Toledo. Money is coming in for Toledo. Is this an indicator of which way you should bet? My last week stats of 44 games say no.
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60% of time, if the public moves towards toledo it hits. (Same for Miami, BTW).

If there's a bet here, it seems like the over. 56.5 seems low, especially in light of last year. Line also moved down on this one, so . . . .
 
ajkreider said:
60% of time, if the public moves towards toledo it hits. (Same for Miami, BTW).

If there's a bet here, it seems like the over. 56.5 seems low, especially in light of last year. Line also moved down on this one, so . . . .
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I wish I could believe that 60% number was true...if you have the discipline to bet the same $$ on every game every week then you'd never lose.
 
What do ya'll think about ...

DUKE +6 @ Baylor
LSU +10 @ Auburn
Us -10 @ Toledo
ARIZ ST -5.5 @ San Diego St
TCU +13.5 @ Ohio ST t. (Dallas)

Look for some on opinions on these games...NFL so far i'm digging NYG +3 @ Dallas. I think the Giants on offense will be to much for Dallas. NYG almost covered against Jax last week. Lost 20-15.
 
memphisbred said:
What do ya'll think about ...

DUKE +6 @ Baylor
LSU +10 @ Auburn
Us -10 @ Toledo
ARIZ ST -5.5 @ San Diego St
TCU +13.5 @ Ohio ST t. (Dallas)

Look for some on opinions on these games...NFL so far i'm digging NYG +3 @ Dallas. I think the Giants on offense will be to much for Dallas. NYG almost covered against Jax last week. Lost 20-15.
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DUKE +6 @ Baylor - Obviously the Duke injuries hurt, but MAN was last year's Baylor team atrocious. I don't know enough about their squad this year and what (if any) improvements they have made to trust this bet either way. Having said that, if I was forced to bet it, even with the injuries, I'd take Cutcliffe. Staying away myself though.

LSU +10 @ Auburn - I was thinking about laying something on LSU all week. I've talked myself out of it though. IThat's a lot of points for a major SEC matchup though, even on the road.

Us -10 @ Toledo - I've actually talked myself into this one as I was going to stay away before. Miami should be laser focused after the LSU debacle, and we seem to match up really well with them. Our pass rush should be able to get after their QB and I trust our secondary not to let their passing attack blow up on us. On the other side of the ball, I don't see them being able to contain our stable of RBs or our WRs for 4 quarters even if we make some mistakes. They lost some critical guys from last year's team, and we beat them soundly - granted, after a shaky start. I'll be on the Canes-10 pretty heavy.

ARIZ ST -5.5 @ San Diego St - I'm not ready to trust ASU yet. Last week's win may have been more of a reflection of the Spartans than the Devils.

TCU +13.5 @ Ohio ST t. (Dallas) - I like TCU with the points. OSU has impressed me thus far as I thought they might sputter a bit early due to the off season issues. But TCU is a legit team and could give OSU a run. I don't see them winning, but I'll lay something on them and buy the line up to 14.
 
Surprised nobody brought up Syracuse (+3.5) vs FSU. ALOT of money is coming in for Syracuse so I think that will go down to (+3) soon. Its a -132 lay on my site for the +3.5. I am definitely looking hard at this one.

I want to bet the -10 on the boys, I really do. And I know come game time I will put the trigger but **** these guys can come out flat and totally ***** you. But we bounced back last year after halftime.
 
Jassid82 said:
Surprised nobody brought up Syracuse (+3.5) vs FSU. ALOT of money is coming in for Syracuse so I think that will go down to (+3) soon. Its a -132 lay on my site for the +3.5. I am definitely looking hard at this one.

I want to bet the -10 on the boys, I really do. And I know come game time I will put the trigger but **** these guys can come out flat and totally ***** you. But we bounced back last year after halftime.
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We talked about cuse above. I like it as well. Though im always wary of the noles talent clicking at some point... even though they've been a dumpster fire for a year now. I'll probably end up playing that.
I've got similar concerns with Miami. I could easily see us running away, but i does feel like there is serious risk there at -10.
 
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Anyone got any thoughts on TNF tonight?

I lean Ravens but historically TNF homes teams win ~65% of the time or something like that.
 
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Kendall Boy Cane said:
Anyone got any thoughts on TNF tonight?

I lean Ravens but historically TNF homes teams win ~65% of the time or something like that.
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I wasnt able to follow that bengals game much. But **** did the Ravens look good! Granted, the bills are atrocious. Im probably staying away myself.
 
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Captain Uberpants said:
I also like BC -5.5 today but not sure what the weather situation is like.
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I love BC today. They moved game back to 530. Weather definitely a concern as it can cause sloppy play which is never a good thing re having cash on a game. Tho i will say i think bad rain or wind would benefit bc more than wake, other than the possibility of turnovers. Ill probably be on it. Much lightwr than i would have without the storm concern tho.
 
For_The_U said:
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I love BC today. They moved game back to 530. Weather definitely a concern as it can cause sloppy play which is never a good thing re having cash on a game. Tho i will say i think bad rain or wind would benefit bc more than wake, other than the possibility of turnovers. Ill probably be on it. Much lightwr than i would have without the storm concern tho.
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Line is up to -7
 
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